SATURDAY MARCH 18, 2016
Racing at ROSEHILL GARDENS and another wet track. Penetrometer reading 6.31, meaning we find ourselves on a HEAVY (10) surface with more rain forecast.
RAIL: +3M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We return to ROSEHILL with the rail out +3M after being in the TRUE position last week. Hoping for an even track, pace dependant, but given the heavy conditions, expect them to be getting off the fence as the day progresses. Be sure to keep an eye on early races for best guide.
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Race 1: We start a huge day’s racing with the Group 3 Marion Cup to be run over 2400m. Small, but competitive affair with the top 4 all short in the market. Main query here is the track and exactly how heavy it is. Many of these have ‘some’ form on softer tracks but many are also a legitimate query on a ‘very heavy’ surface. Think best value lies with one outside the main four, and that’s CAFÉ SOCIETY @ $12+ with CENTREBET. Was very good first up on a heavy track after a long 251 day spell and sure to be better suited over longer here and importantly on a heavy track. Throw a blanket over the top 4. Note, no third dividend.
SUGGEST: CAFÉ SOCIETY (EACH WAY) @ $12+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 2: Next is a Group 3 for the fillies and mares over 1200m and there’s one who jumps out here straight off the bat, in the form of RAIMENT @ $3.60+ with CENTREBET. Ultra-consistent filly that I think the stable have been patient with and now ready to fire in a black type race first up. Always seems to run time and important won first up last prep on a heavy track. Keen. Main dangers SAMANTHA and HIEROGLYPHICS.
SUGGEST: RAIMENT (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.70+, FIRST FOUR (3, 8 / 6 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 45%)
Race 3: Next is the Listed Darby Munro over 1200m for the three year olds. On what is one of Gary Portelli’s biggest days at the track on paper, I think he can get off to a winning start here in the form of **IMPROVEMENT** at $8+ with CENTREBET. Another ultra-consistent galloper (4 wins, 5 placings from 6 starts) with only blemish last time after a freshen up when only 2.6L away in a Group 3 at the Valley. Won well at only heavy run, so hopefully not an issue. Drawn wide, but on days like this can end up being a blessing as long as Collett can find some cover out wide. Give the nature of the day, happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main dangers DERRYN (who just missed being the top pick here), TACTICAL ADVANTAGE and CRAFTY COP.
SUGGEST: **IMPROVEMENT** (EACH WAY) @ $8+, FIRST FOUR (1, 2, 4 / F / F / 12), (2 / F / 1, 4 / 12) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 4: And now things really get interesting, with the first of five consecutive Group 1 races, as good as you get anywhere in the world, anytime of the year. First of the Group 1s is the Ranvet to be run over 2000m. Like OUR IVANHOWE @ $15+ (CENTREBET) here, who we backed with great success at a similar price in the Group 1 Brisbane Cup back in May and don’t see any reason not to play again here despite the arguably tougher opposition, although there were no slouches on that occasion beating Hauraki and It’s Somewhat. $15+, a great each way value in a very competitive race. Saving WIN only play on THE UNITED STATES at $7+ with CENTREBET also. Main danger the obvious in HARTNELL.
SUGGEST: OUR IVANHOWE (EACH WAY) @ $15+, THE UNITED STATES (WIN) @ $7+, FIRST FOUR (roving 1, 4, 5 / F) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 5: The next Group 1 is an event which will have plenty of eyes on given it includes the superstar mare WINX shooting for a lazy 16 straight in the George Ryder Stakes to be run over 1500m. Great race and although the fact that WINX should be tood good, she comes up against top drawer opposition led by CHAUTAUQUA and the one who has been brilliant to dungeon followers past three starts in LE ROMAIN. We obviously normally consider $10+ value, but sometimes a champ comes around and then all of a sudden $1.26+ (CENTREBET) can be value as it is here with the superstar WINX. Primary WIN only play, and anchor into multies and early quaddie leg. Little/no value the PLACE for the likes of LE ROMAIN as only looking at sub $1.50 at this stage, and as much as I want to have something on our Doncaster pick MCREERY @ $81+, weight for age doesn’t suit a little gelding like him who you would expect to feel the 59kg on a heavy track given his petite frame. As a result, we’ll just leave things in the hands of the champ. Main dangers CHAUTAUQUA and LE ROMAIN. Whether you invest in the race or not, sit back and enjoy.
SUGGEST: WINX (WIN) @ $1.26+, FIRST FOUR (roving 1, 2, 8 / F) (CONFIDENCE 90%)
Race 6: Group 1 Rosehill Guineas over 2000m and a good race as you’d expect for the three year olds. Reckon this is a race in two, with last start dominant winner for followers INFERENCE arguably even better suited over this trip at $3.60+ with CENTREBET. Suggest a solid play on a WIN only basis, but then also want something each way on IMPAVIDO @ $9.50+ (CENTREBET) who was very unlucky behind INFERENCE last time and you could make a case that had the right run come earlier in the straight, then we could have had a nerve-racking finish. Happy to play the two as outlined, main dangers PRIZED ICON and ANAHEIM.
SUGGEST: INFERENCE (WIN) @ $3.60+, IMPAVIDO (EACH WAY) @ $9.50+, FIRST FOUR (1, 6 / 4, 9 / F / 4, 9) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 7: Now for the feature, the Group 1 Golden Slipper, the world’s richest two year old race and given the heavy conditions, this is so, so tough, but as a result there is plenty of value available. Given the conditions, as much as I have spoken openly and confidently about several here, notably CATCHY and SHE WILL REIGN (predictions at various times in past weeks/months) I can’t back those short in the market in a race like this. As a result, looking to play several at big prices, and they are *MADEENATY* @ $91+ (CENTREBET), *DIAMOND TATHAGATA* @ $81+ (CENTREBET), TREKKING @ $51+ (CENTREBET) and finally MENARI @ $31+ with you guessed it CENTREBET. MADEENATY is a silly price and on breeding I’d expect the track to not be an issue. Sweated up bigtime when beaten as a short priced favourite last time, and run on Gold Coast behind HOUTZEN was very good. DIAMOND TATHAGATA looks an out-and-out mudlark who should be tough late (and that can’t be under-estimated in a race/conditions like this).At their respective prices, happy to make both MADEENATY and DIAMOND TATHAGATA our BEST LONGSHOT bets of the day. TREKKING is the forgotten horse and it’s simply crazy to be getting 50/1+ for the one time race favourite from the Godolphin stable who simply has done very little wrong in two race starts. Love how he hit the line late in what looks a much better than usual Black Opal, and similar MENARI has had excuses at most runs and will be much fitter here. Main dangers CATCHY, SHE WILL REIGN, HOUTZEN and Black Opal winner TRAPEZE ARTIST who himself is $51+ with those guys again at CENTREBET. What a race!
SUGGEST: *MADEENATY* (EACH WAY) @ $91+, *DIAMOND TATHAGATA* (EACH WAY) @ $81+, TREKKING (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $51+, MENARI (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $31+, FIRST FOUR (3, 9, 12, 15 / F / 3, 9, 12, 15 / 5, 6, 8, 16) (CONFIDENCE 25%)
Race 8: And now for the Group 1 Galaxy to be run over 1100m. Ultra-competitive and tough race, especially with the weather and this is illustrated by a $5-$6 the field market. Once again, despite some guns shorter in the market, given the competitive nature of the race and the conditions which are expected to be very poor by race 8, looking at a few at big odds to minimise risk associated with larger standalone investments. As a result, have landed on plays on each of BIG MONEY @ $26+ (most operators, including CENTREBET), JUNGLE EDGE @ $151+ (CENTREBET) and MISS ROCK @ $81+ once again with CENTREBET. BIG MONEY is an underrated galloper in my opinion and is proven to be competitive in similar fields to this, JUNGLE EDGE is also underrated and was running well in very good grade not long ago and important handles a heavy track, while MISS ROCK is hard to catch but simply looks over the odds at 70/1+. Main dangers RUSSIAN REVOLUTION, REDZEL, ENGLISH and FELL SWOOP. But doesn’t end there in a very deep and competitive race.
SUGGEST: BIG MONEY (EACH WAY) @ $26+, JUNGLE EDGE (EACH WAY) @ $151+, MISS ROCK (EACH WAY) @ $81+, FIRST FOUR (2, 3, 6, 12 / 2, 3, 4, 6, 11, 12, 13 / F / 4, 11, 13) (CONFIDENCE 25%)
Race 9: Penultimate event is the Group 3 Epona Stakes for the fillies and mares over 1900m and looking to play the Godolphin pair in the form of **ALEGRIA** @ $5.50+ (most operators, including CENTREBET) and AMBIENCE @ a tidy $20+ with you guessed it, CENTREBET. ALEGRIA gets to right trip now and was coming home like a steam train (admittedly on the better ground) down the outside fence. Another 30m and she gets there, hence the extra 300m here should work in her favour. Given the nature of the day, happy to make another BEST VALUE bet of the day. While, stablemate AMBIENCE has been competitive at the top level at the past, will be better over the linger trip and did cop a big hit towards the top of the straight last time which can never help. Main dangers VANDANCER, ELLE LOU and SONG AND LAUGHTER.
SUGGEST: **ALEGRIA** (EACH WAY) @ $5.50+, AMBIENCE (EACH WAY) @ $20+, FIRST FOUR (2, 6, 7 / 1, 4 / F / 1, 4) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 10: We finish a huge day’s racing with a Class 5 (believe it or not) over 1200m with this race moved after being washed out earlier in the week. Tricky finish, but can’t go past MACHINEGUN JUBBS @ $5+ (CENTREBET) who we’ll play on a primary WIN only basis, ahead of a couple at secondary longer priced plays in LADY JIVAGO @ $26+ (CENTREBET) and DREAM LANE @ $15+ also with CENTREBET. Main dangers TWIST TOPS ($20+ with CENTREBET), POMELO and CALABASAS.
SUGGEST: MACHINEGUN JUBBS (WIN) @ $5+, LADY JIVAGO (EACH WAY) @ $26+, DREAM LANE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $15+, FIRST FOUR (3, 13, 18 / 4 / F / 5, 12) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Average odds $32.40+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: IMPROVEMENT @ $8+, ALEGRIA @ $5.50+
*BEST LONGSHOT*: MADEENATY @ $91+, DIAMOND TATHAGATA @ $81+
Surely after reading through, if you weren't previously aware, you now must be aware of the super inflated odds with CENTREBET. All early bets placed, I normally place with Betfair as soon as there's enough money in the exchange, but today each and every opportunity had better odds with them. They have publicly stated they don't want to spend money on bonus bets, advertising, etc and simply want to the good punters to find them by identifying the great value on offer: