18 March 2017 (Racing at Flemington - Headquarters)

PUNTING DUNGEON

WWW.PUNTINGDUNGEON.COM.AU

FLEMINGTON

SATURDAY, MARCH 18, 2017

 

Racing at FLEMINGTON, currently rated a GOOD (4) surface.

RAIL: +3M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We return to headquarters (Flemington) with the rail out +3M after being the TRUE position for the previous two meets. Hoping for a level playing field, although recent racing at Flemington has definitely favoured those closer to the pace and we must assume that will be the case here. I’ll be honest, I contemplating banning Flemington until we have faith in how it would play (something we have lost in recent times), however explored alternatives and have decided to play, but if this somehow turns around and front runners/those closer to the pace aren’t given every chance, then I’ll be putting a ban on the track until confidence/consistency is restored. As important as ever to keep a close eye on the track and how it’s playing in the early races for best guide.

Not like Rosehill where every single suggested play had best odds with CENTREBET, but still across the board at Flemington, CENTREBET offering as good as any other. As I've said, who knows how long this will last so be sure to sign up and cash in while it does. At Rosehill several runners are literally $20+ better value than all other operators, in most instances even better than the Betfair exchange, which is unheard of. Signup up below and we will endeavour to do all we can to ensure you're looked after:

 

 

Race 1: We start with the mares down the straight over 1200m and for the past month and a half the inside barriers if anything have had an advantage (definitely no disadvantage), despite not being the case for 6-12 months before that. Hence, assuming that will be the case again and have come out with CATCH A FIRE @ $4.80+ (BET365, CENTREBET) and **INVINCIBLE HEART** @ $7.50+ (CENTREBET) on top, with a slight lean towards the latter simply given the better price. Happy to play the two. At the price and given the nature of the day, happy to make a BEST BALUE bet of the day. Main danger SHAKESPEAREAN LASS who is in career best form, but just a little wary of barrier 11. Also you may notice, the queries on the track and how it will play have resulted in reduce confidence %s across the card.

SUGGEST: **INVINCIBLE HEART** (EACH WAY) @ $7.50+, CATCH A FIRE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $4.80+, FIRST FOUR (roving 2, 3, 6 / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 2: Next are the three year olds over 1400m and there looks minimal pace on paper here which looks set to set it up for THEANSWERMYFRIEND @ $1.85+ (most operators) and BASTILLE @ $3.80+ (LUXBET, CENTREBET). Don’t think there’s that much between them, hence slight lean to BASTILLE at the better price, while the obvious main danger and suggestion for multies, savers and narrow early quaddie leg is with THEANSWERMYFRIEND. Just not keen on taking $1.85 on much on this track right now. It’s a shame, but it’s a reality.

SUGGEST: BASTILLE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.80+, FIRST FOUR (3 / 7 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 3: Now for the three year old fillies over 1100m and was very keen to play SWORD OF LIGHT next start after I thought Damian Lane misread the track/straight last time, however am concerned by barrier 11, given how track/straight has played in recent times. As a result, going to play two who have drawn closer to the inside in the hope that the inside part of the track is the better ground as it has been in recent times. The two in question are **OVERSTEP** @ $9+ (CENTREBET) and HEAR THE CHANT @ $9.50+ again with CENTREBET. Both come out of the Group 3 event at the Valley and both were unlucky at stages, especially **OVERSTEP** who started brilliantly, but the hectic pace had her shuffled back to near last in the blink of an eye. Happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day at the price. Main dangers SWORD OF LIGHT and KENTUCKY MISS.

SUGGEST: **OVERSTEP** (EACH WAY) @ $9+, HEAR THE CHANT (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $9.50+, FIRST FOUR (1, 5 / 3, 8 / F / 3, 8) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 4: Group 3 Breeders Stakes over 1200m for the two year old fillies. Keen on ARTIC ANGEL here at $3.50+ (BET365) who looked home for all money on the heavy track at Randwick, only to get the short steps late and get gobbled up accordingly. Given the heavy track, the 1200m would have been the equivalent to much more, hence 1200m here on a good track should not prove any such concerns. Beat home TEASPSOON who many think is a chance on the Golden Slipper. Primary WIN only play, and also want a secondary WIN only play on SHOALS @ $7+ with SPORTSBET. Smashed them at Seymour in debut and should get the right run here. Main dangers GARRARD and PLOVERSET.

SUGGEST: ARCTIC ANGEL (WIN - PRIMARY) @ $3.50+, SHOALS (WIN – SECONDARY) @ $7+, FIRST FOUR (3, 4 / 1, 8 / F / 1, 8) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 5: Next is the feature, the Group 2 Blamey Stakes over the mile (1600m) and a big shame to see BLACK HEART BART scratched taking a lot of class out of what was already a small field. Not overly excited by the price, but think TOSEN STARDOM @ $1.95+ (LUXBET, CROWNBET) is ‘just’ good enough to play on a WIN only basis. There doesn’t look to be much speed and should be right behind the leaders and as a result should surely be getting every chance from there. Throw a blanket over the rest, most/all with some claims and a couple of big questions marks on the likes of HARLEM and SIR ISAAC NEWTON in particular.   

SUGGEST: TOSEN STARDOM (WIN) @ $1.95+ (CONFIDENCE 45%)

 

Race 6: Benchmark 80 over 2000m. Tricky little race with plenty of chances, with pace, tactics and how track is playing key. Even tempo so on an even track you’d expect all runners to have their chance, but once again given recent history we’re running with backmarkers being disadvantaged. By race 6 we sure have that confirmed. Finding it hard to split two at similar odds here in GOODWILL @ $9+ with most operators and GERVAIS (or as I kick home as ‘Ricky’) @ $7+ with most operators. At the better odds, slight lean GOODWILL on a primary each way basis, while a saving WIN only play on ‘Ricky’. Main danger HURSLEY then throw a blanket over the rest.

SUGGEST: GOODWILL (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $9+, GERVAIS (WIN - SECONDARY) @ $7+, FIRST FOUR (F / 1 / F / 5, 7), (roving 1, 5, 7 / F) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 7: Another benchmark 80, this time down the straight over 1200m. Tough races, with pace/tactics and how track is playing extremely critical. In saying that, once again findi9ng it hard to split two, this time in the form of BOOMWAA @ $7.50+ (most operators) and BIG EFFORT at the same price of $7.50+ also with most operators. Happy to simply play both on WIN only basis’ given the prices on offer. Main dangers CHATEAU CHEVAL and RICH CHARM, while you can throw another blanket over the rest. Bit of a theme for the day, hence hope you have a few old blankets to throw away.   

SUGGEST: BOOMWAA (WIN) @ $7.50+, BIG EFFORT (WIN) @ $7.50+, FIRST FOUR (roving 3, 6, 10 / F), (4, 10 / 3, 6 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 8: Penultimate event is a Listed event over 1400m and an interesting race on paper with many different form lines and fitness levels to try and line up. Slight lean here at a great price on *MUBAKKIR* at $21+ with most operators. Should appreciate any advantage on pace/near fence as you’d expect Cory Parish to take advantage of gate 1 and lead. Won a good race at this track and distance and despite the Listed rating for this race, don’t think it’s necessarily that much harder than the benchmark 84 on that day. Given the price, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Then also want something on the old fella and one of our favourites over the years in JACQUINOT BAY at $11+ with most operators. You would love to own this guy and although he should surely be starting to slow down, the knockers have been saying that for years. Until I see him slowing down I’ll have him as every chance in a race at this level. Main dangers ENTIRELY PLATINUM (tried to squeeze in but odds didn’t allow), HELLOVA STREET and STELLAR COLLISION.

SUGGEST: *MUBAKKIR* (EACH WAY) @ $21+, JACQUINOT BAY (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $11+, FIRST FOUR (4, 6, 12 / 3, 4, 6, 12, 13 / F / 3, 13) (CONFIDENCE 30%) 

 

Race 9: We finish with a benchmark 80 over the mile (1600m) and despite the big jump in weight, think class can prevail in the form of PORTMAN at $3.40+ with SPORTSBET and BET365. Reckon we were very stiff last time against the major bias, but we unfortunately couldn’t quite reel in the leader which was a theme of the day. Primary play, ahead of a secondary play on *STORMSABREWING* at $14+ with BET365. Given the price, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers WAR LEGEND, I BOOGI and ATLANTIC CITY.

SUGGEST: PORTMAN (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.40+, *STORMSABREWING* (EACH WAY) @ $14+, FIRST FOUR (3, 6, 13 / 7, 14 / F / 7, 14) (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

SUMMARY:

Average odds $7.97+ per suggested runner

** BEST VALUE **: INVINCIBLE HEART @ $7.50+, OVERSTEP @ $9+

*BEST LONGSHOT*: MUBAKKIR @ $21+, STORMSABREWING @ $14+

#happypunting