SATURDAY MARCH 25, 2016
Racing at ROSEHILL GARDENS and another wet track. Penetrometer reading 6.34, meaning we find ourselves on another bog track, currently looking at a HEAVY (9).
RAIL: +6M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We return to ROSEHILL with the rail out +6M after being out +3M last week. Hoping for an even track, pace dependant, but given the heavy conditions, expect them to be getting off the fence as the day progresses. Be sure to keep an eye on early races for best guide.
As mentioned, CENTREBET continually offering better odds than the rest with approximately 70-80% of my bets placed with them given the better value on offer. Be sure to take advantage below:
Race 1: We start a Group 3 for the two year olds over 1400m and plenty of guesswork here given the heavy conditions and the fact none of these actually have any experience at the trip (1400m). I think best value lies with SMOOTH LANDING at a tidy $14+ with you guessed it, CENTREBET. Then also want something on debut winner ASTORIA @ $3.20+ with BET365. Won well on a heavy track, Doyle rides, time for Godolphin to start making a stance in the Sydney autumn, after being arguably quiet to date. Throw a blanket over the rest, the ability to run a strong 1400m on a heavy track the key, not necessarily the best 2YO.
SUGGEST: SMOOTH LANDING (EACH WAY) @ $14+, ASTORIA (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.20+, FIRST FOUR (F / 3 / F / 13) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 2: Next is another Group 3, this time the Star Kingdom over 1200m. We were so close with JUNGLE EDGE last week at 150/1 if you don’t mind, going down a half head to Russian Revolution and as much as $3.60 (BET365, SPORTSBET) is no $151, this is easier and we know the heavy will not be an issue. Hard to beat, ahead of KUDERO @ $18+ (CENTREBET) who saluted for us at an even bigger price a couple of months ago and also handles the surface. Main danger IMPENDING. DANISH TWIST and DAL CIELO both more than capable but have both failed on a very heavy surface recently, hence happy to risk this may happen again.
SUGGEST: JUNGLE EDGE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.60+, KUDERO (EACH WAY) @ $18+, FIRST FOUR (roving 3, 4, 8 / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 3: Next is the Group 3 Sellwood Stakes over 2000m. ASTRONOMOS was very good to us three weeks’ ago when making it 5 from 9 winners at Randwick when bolting in, in the lucky last. Don’t see any reason to jump off here @ $2.60+ (BET365), although barrier 1 is the concern. Then want a secondary play AMBIENCE @ $9+ with most operators, another we were on last time when 2nd at odds and ready to fire here. Barrier 2 the concern, as doubt the rail will be the place to be, but happy to assume most runners will peel wide from the 700m and there should hopefully be space for both suggestions to get off the fence. Main dangers ZASORCERESS (interestingly another we were on last time when super against the leader’s bias, heavy track the query) and FLOODLIGHT.
SUGGEST: ASTRONOMOS (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $2.60+, AMBIENCE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $9+, FIRST FOUR (6, 9 / 3 / F / 8) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 4: Next if the Group 3 Doncaster Prelude run over 1500m and like **RUDY** here on an each way basis at a tidy $5.50+ with LUXBET and CROWNBET. Loves the slop, great return first up with 61kg, always better second up and ready to fire. Barrier 3 again the slight concern, but similar logic with the assumption that they’ll get off the fence early if it happens to be off. Given the price, happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Throw a blanket over the rest, hence happy to leave things there.
SUGGEST: **RUDY** (EACH WAY) @ $5.50+ (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 5: Next is the Group 2 Tulloch Stakes for the three year old colts and geldings over 2000m. Wanted to take on favourite JON SNOW @ $2.40+ (BET365) another of the New Zealanders coming across and reckon the hot form will continue here given the heavy conditions. Can have several others but only on a better surface and given the number of queries on the track, happy to simply play in JON SNOW’s corner. Throw another blanket over the rest, those to handle the heavy track the ones to worry about, but without definitive exposed form it’s unfortunately guesswork.
SUGGEST: JON SNOW (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $2.40+ (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 6: Now for one of the two features, the Group 1 BMW run over the lime and a half (2400m). OUR IVANHOWE saluted for us at a juicy $15 last week, was already happy to take on here at the shorter price but now scratched. Keen on Australian Cup winner HUMIDOR here at $3.70+ with UBET. Has won on a Heavy (10) in NZ and that’s one of the only examples of a track that would be as heavy as we get here. Is flying and think this four year old gelding is absolute top drawer, it’s just not known just how good yet. Also, want a secondary play on LASQUETI SPIRIT at a juicy $21+ with CENTREBET. Main dangers TAVAGO, JAMEKA and WHO SHOT THE BARMAN at $21+. Good race, as you’d expect.
SUGGEST: HUMIDOR (EACH WAY) @ $3.70+, LASQUETI SPIRIT (EACH WAY) @ $21+, FIRST FOUR (3, 7, 8 / 6, 9 / F / 6, 9) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 7: Now for the second of the features, the Group 1 Vinery Stud Stakes for the three year old fillies over 2000m. And despite the query on the heavy track, going with the filly who I rate highly and is ready to fire as long as she gets through the going. The filly in question is HARLOW GOLD at $7.50+ with CENTREBET. Is bred by Tavistock so enhances my confidence in the filly and let’s be honest there are queries on most here given the extreme heavy conditions we’re presented with. Then a secondary long shot play on *SMART AS YOU THINK* at $61+ with CENTREBET. Out of So You Think so they normal handle the slop and form warrants a play at 50/1+. Given the price, will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers LA BELLA DIOSA, FOXPLAY and DAWN WALL
SUGGEST: HARLOW GOLD (EACH WAY) @ $7.50+, *SMART AS YOU THINK* (EACH WAY) @ $61+, FIRST FOUR (1, 2, 4 / F / 1, 2, 4 / 3, 6) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 8: Penultimate event is a Group 2 Emancipation Stakes for the fillies and mares over 1500m. Good, competitive race as you’ll expect and finding it tough to split two here in **DIXIE BLOSSOMS** @ $4.40+ (BET365) and EXTENSIBLE @ $8+ with most operators. Both should handle the going, in form and ready to fire. Happy to make **DIXIE BLOSSOMS** a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main danger ZANBAGH and then throw a blanket over the rest.
SUGGEST: **DIXIE BLOSSOMS** (EACH WAY) @ $4.40+, EXTENSIBLE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $8+, FIRST FOUR (roving 2, 3, 9 / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 9: We finish with a benchmark 88 over 1400m and looking to bring it home with BRING LUCK at a tidy $7.50+ with CENTREBET. Excellent return first up (actually first first-up placing ever) which makes me think the five year old gelding has returned more forward than usual and hopefully ready to fire second up. Importantly normally handles a heavy track, so hopefully has no issues here, however come race 9 who knows how bad the track might be. Secondary play *HIMALAYA DREAM* at a juicy $31+ with CENTREBET also. Hard to catch, but at the price in an even race happy to play and make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day.
SUGGEST: BRING LUCK (EACH WAY) @ $7.50+, *HIMALAYA DREAM* (EACH WAY) @ $31+, FIRST FOUR (F / 4, 8 / F / 4, 8) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
- ASTRONOMOS (WIN) @ $2.60
- RUDY (EACH WAY) @ $5.50
- JON SNOW (WIN) @ $2.40
- HUMIDOR (WIN) @ $3.70
- DIXIE BLOSSOMS (EACH WAY) @ $4.40
- TOTAL: ~ 558/1
Average odds $12.65+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: RUDY @ $5.50+, DIXIE BLOSSOMS @ $4.40+
*BEST LONGSHOT*: SMART AS YOU THINK @ $61+, HIMALAYA DREAM @ $31+