25 March 2017 (Saturday metropolitan racing at Mornington)

PUNTING DUNGEON

WWW.PUNTINGDUNGEON.COM.AU

MORNINGTON

SATURDAY MARCH 25, 2016

 

Racing at MORNINGTON for their feature race day in the sun. Penetrometer reading 5.15, meaning we’re looking at a GOOD (4) surface.

RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to MORNINGTON with the rail in the TRUE position. Hoping for an even track, pace dependant, but be sure to keep an eye on early races for best guide.

 Another summary, another example of CENTREBET consistently offering the best odds. Be sure to take advantage by signing up below, identifying and securing best odds available is part and parcel of of BEST VALUE betting:

 

Race 1: We start Mornington’s day in the sun with a benchmark 78 over 1000m. Pace/tactics could be key here with majority here normally settling on or very near the pace. Tricky start, most runners with legitimate winning claims and we won’t know exactly how the track is playing. Can favour on pacers, however last time was even, so hopefully that’s what we get served up here. Firstly, want to play PINK PERFECTION at a $8+ with each of UBET, CROWNBET and BET365. Racing very well and good each way price with Williams aboard and electing to stay in Melbourne. Best value then with *NORDIC EMPIRE* at a very juicy $20+ with CENTREBET. Happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Recent form is better that it looks at first glance and the price looks overs accordingly. Happy to play around the two.

SUGGEST: PINK PERFECTION (EACH WAY) @ $8+, *NORDIC EMPIRE* (EACH WAY) @ $20+, FIRST FOUR (F / 2, 3 / F / 2, 3) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 2: Next is another benchmark 78, this time for the fillies and mares over 1200m and there looks to be plenty of pace on paper here. This should give us a strong indication as to whether there is any benefit to those on pace today, as there should be plenty of pressure here and realistically assist those off the pace, on a level playing field. In saying that, can’t believe the price available for *STYLISH MISS* at a very tidy $16+ with CENTREBET. Goes well first up, drawn well to hopefully take sit behind the leaders, gets handy 1.5kg claim from in-form Ben Allen, trained by the brilliant Weir stable and despite capable over longer trips, has won 2, placed 5 from 9 starts over the shorter 1200m distance. Great each way bet. Happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Then, also want something on FLORELLE who at $7.50+ represents good value also and this race shapes nicely for her on paper. Main dangers VIATRIX, EL RADA and WEATHER THE STORM ($18+) but doesn’t end there in another competitive race.

SUGGEST: *STYLISH MISS* (EACH WAY) @ $16+, FLORELLE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $7.50+, FIRST FOUR (6, 10, 12 / 1, 4 / F / 1, 4) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 3: Benchmark 90 over 2000m and going with the ‘best horse’ rule here in the form of TRY FOUR @ $3.20+ with BET365 and CENTREBET. We were on without success last time when 4th, but this is a big drop in grade and looks the standout now. The longer the better and this distance suits better. SHAKOPEE the unknown, so be sure to respect any monetary support there. Main danger SNITZELWOOD.

SUGGEST: TRY FOUR (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.20+, FIRST FOUR (8, 9 / 8, 9 / 4 / F) (CONFIDENCE 40%)

 

Race 4: Now for the two year olds over 1500m which is a decent trip for these youngsters. Top pick here is definitely TOGA PICTA @ $2.90+ with most operators including CENTREBET. Liked the way he hit the line last time and looks to be looking for this trip. Happy to play on a WIN only basis at current odds. Also want something on value runner SHEER MADNESS at $13+ with those guys again at CENTREBET. Nice each way price. Main danger ESHTIRAAK.

SUGGEST: TOGA PICTA (WIN) @ $2.90+, SHEER MADNESS (EACH WAY) @ $13+, FIRST FOUR (1 / 2 / F / 4) (CONFIDENCE 45%)

 

Race 5: Next is yet another benchmark 78, this time over the mile (1600m). Don’t see any reason why STRIKE FORCE can’t win again @ $3.60+ (BET365) on the quick backup after beating a better field than this in the last at Flemington last week. We were on Portman on that occasion beating 0.1L in a very close finish and Portman would be $1.70 here. Main dangers FIFE after a freshen up with that man William aboard (hopefully already has a double by now given earlier suggestions), HOKKAIDO and PENINSULA BOY.  

SUGGEST: STRIKE FORCE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.60+, FIRST FOUR (2, 7, 8 / 1 / 2, 7, 8 / F), (2, 7, 8 / 2, 7, 8 / F / 1) (CONFIDENCE 40%)

 

Race 6: Now for the first of the two features, starting with the Listed Hareeba Stakes to be run over 1200m and is there some super value on offer here. Great race and have absolutely no reason to jump off **PRUSSIAN VIXEN** at a very juicy $15+ with CENTREBET. Beat Silent Sedition last start and drops 1kg from that run….enough said. The barrier the slight concern, with some decent pace in the race, but at the price happy to punt she gets across okay. Should she cross with minimal issues, then should be hard to beat at a great price. Given the price, happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Also, want something on FAST CASH first up at $18+ with CENTREBET also. More than capable on its day and normally goes well first up. Finally, want something on CHARMED HARMONY at $31+ with BET365 and CENTREBET. Not going great of late, but has been running against the top liners and this is more his grade. Main dangers BASSETT and WELL SPRUNG but doesn’t end there in a very competitive affair, hence the value on offer.

SUGGEST: **PRUSSIAN VIXEN** (EACH WAY) @ $15+, FAST CASH (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $18+, CHARMED HARMONY (EACH WAY) @ $31+, FIRST FOUR (5, 7 / 2, 8, 11 / F / 2, 8, 11) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 7: Now for the Listed Mornington Cup to be run over 2400m and importantly grant you automatic entry in the Caulfield Cup. And that tactic seems to have worked (depending on your definition) with Godolphin and notably the Charlie Appleby stable who were white-hot in the Spring bringing **THE GOLD TRAIL** all the way down from the UK for what looks a “smash n grab” plan to get their ticket for October’s handicap now. Extremely hard to beat and the price is of $2.35+ with CENTREBET looks good considering form and the situation surrounding such a move, which is not an easy nor cheap one. Happy to have a good play on a WIN only basis and actually going to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day as I think we should be in the red. Dare say our shortest ever BEST VALUE suggestion. Suggest a secondary play on a small win / larger place basis on SETTLER’S STONE at $41+ with most operators.  Main danger BOOM TIME.

SUGGEST: **THE GOLD TRAIL** (WIN) @ $2.35+, FIRST FOUR (ROVING 3, 6, 15 / F) (CONFIDENCE 30%) 

 

Race 8: Penultimate event for the three year olds over the mile (1600m). Finding it hard to split two here in CLIFF HANGER @ $4.80+ (LUXBET, CROWNBET and CENTREBET) and RED IS THE ROSE at $4.40+ with LUXBET. Happy to simply back both on primary WIN only basis’. Secondary smaller play OUTBACK RAIN at $34+ (CENTREBET) Main dangers NO COMMITMENT ($13+), ODEON, FLORIDA KEYS and LORD MACAU.

SUGGEST: CLIFF HANGER (WIN - PRIMARY) @ $4.80+, RED IS THE ROSE (WIN - PRIMARY) @ $4.40+, OUTBACK RAIN (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $34+, FIRST FOUR (2, 3, 4, 10 / 1, 13 / 1, 3 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 10, 13) (CONFIDENCE 40%) 

 

Race 9: We finish with a benchmark 78 over 1200m and a very even and tricky way to end the day. Slight lean MATERNAL @ $4+ (CENTREBET) first up here for Godolphin and that man Williams who is hopefully set for a big day looking back at suggestions across the card. Then, think the value is with SIR MASK at $15+ also with CENTREBET. Underrated, consistent galloper and up to this grade. Great each way price. Main dangers JUST MAGICAL and MOSS ‘N’ DALE also first up for the Gelagotis team.

SUGGEST: MATERNAL (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $4+, SIR MASK (EACH WAY) @ $15+, FIRST FOUR (1, 3 / 10, 11 / F / 10, 11) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

SUMMARY:

Average odds $11.93+ per suggested runner!

** BEST VALUE **: PRUSSIAN VIXEN @ $15+, THE GOLD TRAIL @ $2.35+

*BEST LONGSHOT*: NORDIC EMPIRE @ $20+, STYLISH MISS @ $16+

#happypunting