4 March 2017 (Group 1 Australian Guineas day racing at Flemington)

PUNTING DUNGEON

WWW.PUNTINGDUNGEON.COM.AU

FLEMINGTON

SATURDAY, MARCH 4, 2017

 

Racing at FLEMINGTON, currently rated a GOOD (4) surface.

RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We return to headquarters (Flemington) after the rail was out +9M last time and now back in the TRUE position. Hoping for a level playing field, pace dependant, and the TRUE rail position normally gives us every chance of that. As usual, important to keep a close eye on the track and how it’s playing in the early races for best guide.

 

Race 1: We start with the first of three consecutive races down the straight which is a rare occurrence. Lately (last two meetings) those close to the inside rail have been advantaged, hence the assumption is this will be the case again. At least we should get a guide after the first, worst case the second. We start with the fillies and mares over 1100m and this is close to a raffle, but have ended up with a very slight lean towards bottom weight SAVAJU @ $8+ with BET365. Good win first up and with several here normally better over longer, just think she might be the one on the up which is best suited over the 1100m. Throw a blanket over the rest in a very even affair.

SUGGEST: SAVAJU (EACH WAY) @ $8+ (CONFIDENCE 25%)

 

Race 2: Listed Hoysted Handicap over 1000m and simply can’t go past the class here in HEATHERLY who should be very hard to beat at $2.10+ with CENTREBET. Was only 2.1L from Terravista, Speith and co in the Lightning and they would be beating this lost by more than 2.1L. Standout WIN only play, and throw a blanket over the rest as very little between the rest. Actually think there’s a couple of good things in quick succession, hence the RUNNING DOUBLE suggested play into the next.

SUGGEST: HEATHERLY (WIN) @ $2.10+, RUNNING DOUBLE (HEATHERLY, MADEENATY) (CONFIDENCE 55%)

 

Race 3: Next is another Listed event, this time for the two year olds over 1000m. And another opportunity to run with the ‘nbest horse’ rule, this time in the form of MADEENATY @ $1.90+ with most operators. Was super on the Gold Coast behind a potential star in Houtzen, currently second favourite for the world’s richest two year old event the Golden Slipper. There are no Houzten’s here, and if only for a brain fart by Mark Zahra (going to the inferior inside when outside fence was red hot in the Spring), she would be undefeated (2/2) down the straight. Primary WIN only play. Main danger SEIZED who was good on debut and Sadler horses normally go okay down the straight.  

SUGGEST: MADEENATY (WIN) @ $1.90+, FIRST FOUR (4 / 1 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 65%)

 

Race 4: Benchmark 84 over 1600m and once again, can’t go past the favourite here in PORTMAN @ $2.50+ with BET365. Can’t remember the last time I tipped three consecutive favourites, but as much as we’re all about identifying value, when they look clear cut top picks, and not necessarily under the odds, then happy to play. Main dangers LIAPARI and JERILDERIE LETTER.

SUGGEST: PORTMAN (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $2.50+, FIRST FOUR (roving 2, 4, 8 / F) (CONFIDENCE 50%)

 

Race 5: Next is the Group 3 Tressady Stakes for the fillies and mares over 1400m. As you always expect, very competitive black type event with the fillies and mares. Plenty of chances, hence comes down to the best value as always. Looking a three-pronged play here with outlays staggered in line with odds. Firstly I LOVE IT @ $9.50+ (CENTREBET) after two ‘close but cigarless’ runs in Tassie. Nest is DEJA BLUE @ $12+ with most operators. Is low flying as is the stable, only misses in recent times are when with big weights and/or wide gates. Tricky gate here, however well down in the weights given the better grade of race. Finally, *CHOOSE* at a juicy $31+ with CENTREBET. Very good, consistent galloper who is up to these at her best. Did enough first up, can/needs to improve second up. Happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers RISING ROMANCE, HAPPY HANNAH and DIAMOND BARONESS.

SUGGEST: I LOVE IT (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $9.50+, DEJA BLUE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $12+, *CHOOSE* (EACH WAY) @ $31+, FIRST FOUR (3, 8, 9 / 2, 5, 7 / F / 2, 5, 7) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 6: First leg of the main quaddie is the Group 3 TAB Rewards Stakes over 1400m. Tough race, with plenty of guesswork, especially with several first up, freshened up and/or dropping back in trip. Slight lean **GRANDE ROSSO** at $6+ with BET365. Ultra-consistent, especially in recent times and the drop back to the 1400m, albeit always a slight query, should suit. Happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main dangers HE OR SHE, ZEBRINZ and SADAQA, but doesn’t end there. Wide early quaddie leg.

SUGGEST: **GRANDE ROSSO** (EACH WAY) @ $6+, FIRST FOUR (2, 6, 8 / F / F / 5) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 7: And now for the feature, the Group 1 Australian Guineas over the mile (1600m) and a cracking field assembled as you would expect. We were on SEABURGE last time and unfortunately was caught out widest, where no runners made ground all day. That combines with extra distance and fitness to suit at a tidy $12+ with most operators. Very similarly HARLOW GOLD at $20+ (CENTREBET) caught wide first up on that patch where SEABURGE was on and hard to make ground. Blowout hope to longshot *ANAHEIM* at $51+with BET365 and CENTREBET. Big price, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Looking for longer, but underrated in my opinion and also been a bit of a fan. Main dangers DIVINE PROPHET, PRIZED ICON and ATTENTION.

SUGGEST: SEABURGE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $12+, HARLOW GOLD (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $20+, *ANAHEIM* (EACH WAY) @ $51+, FIRST FOUR (1, 2, 6 / 3, 9, 14 / F / 3, 9, 14) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 8: Penultimate event is the Listed Roy Higgins Quality to be run over 2600m. And finding it hard to split two here in the form of DE LITTLE ENGINE @ $7.50+ (BET365, CENTREBET) and ANNUS MIRABILIS @ $7+ with most operators. And when in doubt, simply back both on a WIN only basis, hence that’s the suggested play here. Main dangers NORTHWEST PASSAGE, CADILLAC MOUNTAIN and POST DE FRANCE.

SUGGEST: DE LITTLE ENGINE (WIN) @ $7.50+, ANNUS MIRABILIS (WIN) @ $7+, FIRST FOUR (3, 7, 12 / 4, 9 / 4, 9 / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

Race 9: We finish with an open event for the three year olds over 1400m. Good, competitive race to finish with, many legitimate winning chances. Leaning towards **REDOUBLE** @ $7+ (UNIBET) who get in well at the weights here against key rivals such as KNOWABLE, getting 1kg swing for 0.1L deficit last time. Drawn well, Prebble aboard, great each way chance/value. Will actually make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Also want something on TOFFEE NOSE @ $17+ with most operators. Almost added to the brilliant Derby Day we had, running 4th as our best longshot of the day at 100/1. Thankfully we cleaned up everywhere else that day, so all’s forgotten. Good first up run, telling me she might have returned well and going better over the shorter trips. Big test here, but good odds and happy to take the punt. Main dangers KNOWABLE, THEANSWERMYFRIEND and MR SNEAKY. Doesn’t end there. Good finish.

SUGGEST: **REDOUBLE** (EACH WAY) @ $7+, TOFFEE NOSE (EACH WAY) @ $17+, FIRST FOUR (2, 3, 6 / F / F / 4, 10) (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

SUMMARY:

Average odds $12.97+ per suggested runner

** BEST VALUE **: GRANDE ROSSO @ $6+, REDOUBLE @ $7+

*BEST LONGSHOTS*: CHOOSE @ $31+, ANAHEIM @ $51+,

#happypunting