SATURDAY MARCH 4, 2016
Racing at ROYAL RANDWICK with more and more (and more) rain in sunny Sydney. Sound like a broken record, but wow this city gets a lot of rain. Unfortunately, that means we are on another bog track with the penetrometer reading 6.13, hence looking at a HEAVY (9) surface.
RAIL: +4M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We return to RANDWICK less than two weeks after the postponed meeting that was originally scheduled a fortnight ago, when the rail was in the TRUE position. Despite what happened there when closer to the rail wasn’t too bad, can only guess they will be coming off the fence, especially as the day progresses, but be sure to keep an eye on early races for best guide.
Race 1: We start with the two year old fillies in the Group 2 Riesling Stakes over 1200m and no surprise that gun filly SHE WILL REIGN is all the rage at a very skinny $1.26+. As much as I declared this girl the Golden slipper winner before Xmas, now at the skinny price and the brilliant form of the likes of Catchy, I’m not so adamant and do have a ‘very, very slight’ query over a strong 1200m. The beauty of today is we get a very clear guide to that before the Slipper, hence should make things easier in two weeks’ time. As for today, I can’t take the risk at such a skinny price and instead suggest a play on FROM WITHIN at $8+ with UNIBET. Might be a smaller win, larger place play, but do give this girl a chance of causing a boilover, after a nice trial. Just in case, I’d suggest having something on Catchy for the Slipper before this race, as an expected win by SHE WILL REIGN probably only results in a minor movement, but an unexpected defeat could mean more major movements in that market.
SUGGEST: FROM WITHIN (SMALL WIN / LARGER PLACE) @ $8+, FIRST FOUR (F / 2, 4 / 2, 4 / F) (CONFIDENCE 20%)
Race 2: Now for the two year old colts and geldings, in the Group 2 Todman Stakes over 1200m. A lot of guesswork here with limited / no heavy track form to work with. MENARI looks above average, and importantly trialled recently on what was a very rain affected track and looked to get through it well. If it wasn’t for that trial, I’d be taking on, but that tips me that way at $2.00+ with CENTREBET. Primary WIN only play. Hail Mary play on *SNITCH* @ $201+ with CENTREBET, simply on wet track breeding on such a bog track. Probably not up to it, but these youngsters can improve at their second start, especially if they find a track that they may excel at in the future. At a crazy price, so will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main danger VERANILLO.
SUGGEST: MENARI (WIN) @ $2+, *SNITCH* (EACH WAY) @ $201+, FIRST FOUR (2 / 6 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 3: Listed event for the three year olds over 1100m. SCARLET RAIN @ $3+ (CROWNBET) was super last time with a huge weight and although still top weight, thankfully drops a big 5kg from that run. Main danger FAITH’S ENCORE.
SUGGEST: SCARLET RAIN (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3+, FIRST FOUR (8 / 1 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 4: Next is the Group 3 Wenona Girl for the mares over 1200m. Very even affair as you expect with the mares, and have ended up with a slight lean on **ROCKET COMMANDER** @ $6+ with most operators. There importantly, doesn’t look to be any pace on paper here, hence should get a soft run in transit and even more importantly, handles the going. Happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Also, want to give ALUCINARI another chance at a juicy $16+ with CENTREBET. Disappointing first up when we were aboard, but they’ve put the tongue tie on to hopefully improve second up. Main dangers NANCY and ZESTFUL but doesn’t ended there.
SUGGEST: **ROCKET COMMANDER** (EACH WAY) @ $6+, ALUCINARI (EACH WAY) @ $16+, FIRST FOUR (1, 3 / F / F / 4, 8) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 5: Now for the first of the features, in the Group 1 BMW Stakes over 1300m and a cracking race on paper. Put the money aside, and we would all like to see the Grey Flash CHAUTAUQUA swoop to victory here, and that is much more likely today over the longer 1300m trip. In saying that, one of our favourites is here, one who has been very good to followers and don’t see any reason to jump off. The runner in question is **LE ROMAIN** at a tidy enough $5+ with most operators. Should improve from first up win, and handles the track as many here do. Happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main dangers CHAUTAUQUA and MUSIC MAGNATE.
SUGGEST: **LE ROMAIN** (EACH WAY) @ $5+, FIRST FOUR (1, 4 / 2 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 6: Group 2 Challenge Stakes over 1000m and can’t go past REDZEL here at $4.20+ with LUXBET, CROWNBET, BET365. Was heading to the Lightning, but the stable elected to get an extra trial under his belt and now meets an easier field here. Hasn’t been missed, was hoping for better, but the price is still good enough to play and hopefully we get even better later on. Good competition elsewhere, and main dangers led by ENGLISH (could smash them, but which ENGLISH rocks up?), DAL CIELO and SUPIDO.
SUGGEST: REDZEL (EACH WAY) @ $4.20+, FIRST FOUR (3, 4, 7 / 2 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 7: Now for main race, the Group 1 Randwick Guineas over the famous Randwick mile (1600m). Tough race, with a stack of guesswork required, especially with limited form on an extremely heavy track. Have come out with INFERENCE on top at $7+ with BET365. Was great first up out very wide in the inferior ground and is 2/2 second up. Breeding says he “should” handle the heavy going as much as any, but that’s obviously the key unknown, however has won on a slow track, so again gives you a little more confidence. Throw a blanket over many others here, in a wide led for the quaddie, however for multiples main dangers led by MAN FROM UNCLE and COMIN’ THROUGH. The latter would have been the clear cut top pick on a better surface.
SUGGEST: INFERENCE (EACH WAY) @ $7+, FIRST FOUR (F / 2, 3, 5 / 2, 3, 5 / F) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 8: Penultimate event is the Group 3 Aspiration Quality for the fillies and mares, also over the mile (1600m). Not overly keen on the race and definitely not one I’m chock full of confidence about. As a result, taking a punt on a couple at big odds in CHAQUINTA @ $26+ (CENTREBET) and *COUNTESS MARINOV* @ $81+ with SPORTSBET and CENTREBET. Class is the query, but on a bog track like this and no apparent superstars around, happy to have smaller plays around the two. At the huge price, happy to make *COUNTESS MARINOV* a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day, lack of pace should assist as gives the chance to cross easily from the wide gate. Main dangers TSARITSA, TOP OF MY LIST and SONG AND LAUGHTER.
SUGGEST: CHAQUINTA (EACH WAY) @ $26+, *COUNTESS MARINOV* (EACH WAY) @ $81+, FIRST FOUR (5, 6, 11 / F / F / 10, 13) (CONFIDENCE 25%)
Race 9: The final event is a Listed event over 2000m and keen on ASTRONOMOS here at $3.40+ with CENTREBET. Loves the going, first up run was super, goes well second up, ticks all the boxed for a race like this, while others are more than capable but have queries, predominately around the going.
SUGGEST: ASTRONOMOS (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.40+ (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Average odds $30.22+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: ROCKET COMMANDER @ $6+, LE ROMAIN @ $5+
*BEST LONGSHOT*: SNITCH @ $201+, COUNTESS MARINOV @ $81+