ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON
SATURDAY, APRIL 1, 2016
Racing at BENDIGO for their day in the sun with the penetrometer reading 5.04, so currently looking at a GOOD (4) surface.
RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to BENDIGO with the rail in the TRUE position. On this program last year, the rail was off significantly and a three wide trail (one I recall very well with IF NOT NOW WHEN’s run) the better going. Need to expect an even track given weather and rail position, but be sure to keep an eye on early races for best guide.
Race 1: We start with a benchmark 84 over 1100m and this is a very tough start to the day. Many winning chances and not much between many on paper. Think best value lies with LONROCKSTAR @ $13+ with CENTREBET. I concede doesn’t win out of turn, but racing well, contesting better races than this and despite the competitive nature of the race, simply good enough to win at this level at a nice each way price. Happy to play there, with main dangers led by the Weir duo of SEBRING SUN and STAR STEALER, but not many here without legitimate winning claims.
SUGGEST: LONROCKSTAR (EACH WAY) @ $13+, FIRST FOUR (roving 2, 5, 8 / F) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 2: Benchmark 70 for the three year olds over 1000m and I obviously have a personally interest through IF NOT NOW WHEN. One year ago at this meeting she provided us with one of the greatest thrills winning the $250k Vobis Gold Rush on debut after drifting to 20/1+. Unfortunately this time around there are many unknowns after a series or issues in recent times. The truth is we’re just not 100% sure as to where she is at, but hope to find out a lot more tomorrow. This is the reason we have elected not to claim (leaving us with a big weight), as nobody knows her better than Mickey Dee and he can hopefully provide a comparison following the race. Fingers crossed it’s a positive one, but only time will tell. Personally, think best value most definitely lies with *PEARL CONGENIAL* @ $15+ (BET365). First up after break, good fresh form, good record overall and importantly she excels over her pet distance (1000m) with each of her 2 wins and 5 placings (overall) over this exact trip. At the price, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main danger SACRED SHAM, but obviously fingers crossed for our filly who will be on the fence midfield hoping for luck.
SUGGEST: *PEARL CONGENIAL* (EACH WAY) @ $15+, FIRST FOUR (5 / F / F / 8), (F / 5 / F / 8) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 3: Now for one of the features of the day, a race that will always be very special in our hearts, the Vobis Gold Rush which our If Not Now When won in style last year. And safe to say this race has been flipped on its head with the scratching of LIMESTONE who was set to swallow and spit out her opposition here in what would have been the clear cut bet of the day. 0.1L loss to Catchy last time, a win over Tulip the start prior, 1.5L win down straight at Flemington before that and a 0.7L defeat to Catchy four starts back on debut. Oh well, not to be, so we focus on those who remain and we consequently have a race. Not a big field, but plenty of pace on paper, given the raced brigade alone, then with several debutantes here. Slight lean PURE SCOT here for the Hayes/Dabernig yard at a tidy $9.50+ (most operators) on an each way basis with all three dividends available as they stand. Main danger SUN QUAN and could Henry Dwyer do it again with JE SUIS TYCOON who trialled well enough to be very competitive here.
SUGGEST: PURE SCOT (EACH WAY) @ $9.50+, FIRST FOUR (7, 11 / 9 / F / 7, 11) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 4: Next is a benchmark 84 over 2400m and don’t see any reason **SNITZELWOOD** @ $5+ (CENTREBET) can’t win again on the quick backup after winning well last week at Mornington. The start prior was only 2.4L from Our Century and an “almost” Australia Cup winner in Extra Zero, while also boasts a win over the handy Vengeur Masque at the end of last prep. 2400m the unknown but don’t see it being a problem and gets handy 1.5kg claim from the in-form Beau Mertens. Happy to have a standalone play here and make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. I’d be throwing a blanket over the rest of the field with very little between them.
SUGGEST: **SNITZELWOOD** (EACH WAY) @ $5+ (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 5: Now for a benchmark 78 over 1300m and keen to play two here at similar odds in the form of **ORIENT LINE** @ $8+ (most operators) and LEODORO @ $8.50+ with BET365 and CENTREBET. **ORIENT LINE** drops in grade significantly after not disgracing itself in black type races at past two, including a 2.7L defeat to He Or She two back which reads extremely well for a race like this. Given the price, happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. LEODORO is an ultra-consistent galloper and has been more than competitive in races no more difficult than this in the past. 3 x wins, 1 x 2nd and a 1.3L 5th in five starts this prep so never far away. Main danger BROADWAY AND FIRST and although race runs deeper, happy to play around the three for multiples.
SUGGEST: **ORIENT LINE** (EACH WAY) @ $8+, LEODORO (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $8.50+, FIRST FOUR (3 / 4, 14 / F / 4, 14) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 6: Now for the open Gold Bracelet run over 1400m and a good, competitive field assembled. Keen to play around two here, firstly WHISTLE BABY who looks very well suited here @ $3.60+ with BET365 and suggest a primary WIN only investment. Doesn’t know how to run a bad race this mare and this is a drop in grade after being more than competitive in better races than this. Also, want something on DIAMOND BARONESS at a tidy $7+ with LUXBET. Chances increase significantly if there is any apparent advantage to those on pace as there doesn’t seem to be a great deal here, so should be able to dictate terms. Given the prices on offer of both suggestions, also suggesting a WIN only play. Main danger JALAN JALAN and QUILATE.
SUGGEST: WHISTLE BABY (WIN - PRIMARY) @ $3.60+, DIAMOND BARONESS (WIN – SECONDARY) @ $7+, FIRST FOUR (5, 10 / 3, 8 / F / 3, 8) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 7: Now for the feature, the Listed Golden Mile over you guessed it 1600m. Pace/tactics and how the track is playing is set to be key. BURNING FRONT is without a doubt the one to beat, but at the price ($3.30 with most operators) and uncertainty as to whether leaders are advantaged (we’ll know by race 7) happy to not put all my eggs in one basket and instead spread bets around three runners at much juicier prices. Firstly, want to give the old boy *JACQUINOT BAY* another chance at a juicy $26+ with BET365. Was a total forgive first up and it was not long ago he was competitive at the top level around the likes of Black Heart Bart and He’s Our Rokkii. That form ties him in very well here at a super price. Given the price happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Then, finally want something on PLOT THE COURSE at $19+ with BET365 and SPORTSBET. Finally, a WIN only play on WAR LEGEND at $12+ (BET365) who just missed last time in a bunched finish. Drawn awkwardly but hoping being away from the inside is no disadvantage as it was at this meeting a year ago. Main danger BURNING FRONT, suggest a saving one out quaddie leg there as long as leaders are getting every chance, ahead of HE OR SHE.
SUGGEST: *JACQUINOT BAY* (EACH WAY) @ $26+, PLOT THE COURSE (EACH WAY) @ $19+, WAR LEGEND (WIN) @ $12+, FIRST FOUR (1, 2 / 3, 14, 16 / F / 3, 14, 16) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 8: Penultimate event is the last of the features, in the form of the Listed Bendigo Guineas to be run over 1400m. This race holds a special spot in early Dungeon follower hearts after Bradman weaved through the field to win this race a couple of years back at a massive 66/1! Like WATERLOO SUNSET here at a tidy $7.50+ with UBET, CROWNBET and BET365. Flew home late on the outside rail at Flemington first up and the stable are brilliantly at placing their runners well and assuming this was the aim second up. Then, also want something on PLENTY TO LIKE at a juicy $17+ with SPORTSBET. In form and not long ago (4 starts back at the end of last prep) finished on the heels of the high quality Foxplay in a Group 2 at Randwick. Throw a blanket over the rest in a very open race.
SUGGEST: WATERLOO SUNSET (EACH WAY) @ $7.50, PLENTY TO LIKE (EACH WAY) @ $17+, FIRST FOUR (F / 10, 11 / F / 10, 11) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 9: We finish with a benchmark 90 over 1400m and a solid field assembled to round off a very good Bendigo card. Like HARADAFULL here first up for Ciaron Maher at $8.50+ with CENTREBET. Long break, but has trialled well and is good enough to beat these first up. Might need a touch of luck from the gate but as long as runners are able to get off the fence and run on, then should be hitting the line hard and a great each way chance. Once again, we’ll know by race 9 and also monitor betting given long break. Main dangers PAY UP BRO and UNBREAKABLE.
SUGGEST: HARADAFULL (EACH WAY) @ $8.50+, FIRST FOUR (roving 4, 9, 11 / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Average odds a juicy $11.40+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: SNITZELWOOD @ $5+, ORIENT LINE @ $8+
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: PEARL CONGENIAL @ $15+, JACQUINOT BAY @ $26+