SATURDAY, APRIL 15, 2016
Racing at ROYAL RANDWICK for the third consecutive week and believe it or not, more rain. Penetrometer reading 6.09, but currently looking at a HEAVY (8) surface, but weather is on the improve.
RAIL: +7M (1600M – WINNING POST), +5M (REMAINDER). We head to ROYAL RANDWICK again with the rail out +7M for the most part. TRUE position. Given the improving conditions and rail positioning, important to keep a close eye on early races for best guide. Expecting / hoping for an even playing field, pace dependant.
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Race 1: We start with the Class 3 Highway Handicap over 1200m and although at first glance didn’t look a race I was too interested in, upon closer inspection think top weight in the very expensive “gelding” (surely that decision wasn’t taken lightly given the $1.6M price tag) in WAR HERO @ $3.70+ (most operators) who should be in a position to start living up to some I dare say lofty initial expectations. Main danger MERCURIAL LAD.
SUGGEST: WAR HERO (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.70+, FIRST FOUR (2 / 1 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 2 (updated at 9:00am AEST): Next is a benchmark 81 over 1200m. Tough race, but looking to play a couple at nice, double figure odds in the form of QUICK FEET at $13+ (most operators) and *SWEET SERENDIPITY* at a juicy $29+ with UBET. QUICK FEET is first up after a decent break for the strong Snowden stable and this is a big drop in class to what she normally expects after running in nothing but black type events in recent times. Fitness and how wound up she is for a first up tilt is the key, but at the price, happy to take the gamble to find out. *SWEET SERENDIPITY* won well last time in slightly lesser grade (benchmark 78) and handles the heavy going. Class the query, but again at the price, happy to take the gamble to find out. Given the price, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers CANNYESCENT, NUDIERUDIE, ALMIGHTY GIRL and YUMA DESERT. -> Following the scratching of QUICK FEET, have upgraded ALMIGHTY GIRL @ $9.50+ (most operators) to primary suggested each way play bet.
SUGGEST: ALMIGHTY GIRL (EACH WAY) @ $9.50+, *SWEET SERENDIPITY* (EACH WAY) @ $29+, FIRST FOUR (4, 7, 10 / 9, 11 / F / 9, 11) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 3: Now for the first of the features, starting with the Group 3 Frank Packer for the three year olds over 2000m. A lot here revolves around **MONGOLIAN WOLF** first time in Australia for the red hot New Zealanders who keep coming across and dominating. If you are willing to put a line through last start flop (in a Group 1 when started favourite), then must be hard to beat here despite good opposition. Two back was beaten as favourite by 1.8L to Gingernuts in a Group 2 over 2100m. At $3.70+ prefer the odds as opposed to main danger the clear cut hardest to beat in favourite ACATOUR at $2.60 with most operators. Happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day with the money continuing to pour in for the favourite ACATOUR, hence starting to look like an each way price is possible. $4.40 is currently next in queue on Betfair. Expecting the two to be fighting out the finish.
SUGGEST: **MONGOLIAN WOLF** (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.70+, FIRST FOUR (3 / 1 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 4 (updated at 9:00am AEST): Now for another Group 3, this time the Hall Mark Stakes over 1200m. Good race and personally think it runs deeper than many believe. For that reason, despite conceding both HELLBENT and REDZEL should both be hard to beat, I’d prefer to play a couple instead both around the $10 mark. The two in question are **COUNTERATTACK** @ $10+ (WILLIAM HILL, BET365, CENTREBET) and CLEARLY INNOCENT at $9.50+ with most operators. Both more than capable at this level and despite being down on best form in recent times, both looks well suited at this level despite the set weights and penalty conditions. On a tough day, happy to make **COUNTERATTACK** a BEST VALUE bet of the day at the double figure price. Main danger HELLBENT, ahead of REDZEL with the distance the query for the latter. In saying that, not many here with some claims in what could be a wider early quaddie leg. -> CLEARLY INNOCENT scratched, hence simply removed from suggested play calculations.
SUGGEST: **COUNTERATTACK** (EACH WAY) @ $10+, FIRST FOUR (F / 3, 8 / F / 4) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 5: Yet another Group 3, this time in the form of the JRA Plate over 2000m and simply can’t go past one who has been good to us in recent times, despite being extremely unlucky in 2nd last time. The runner in question is ASTRONOMOS @ $2.80+ (most operators) who was a hard watch for followers last time when simply a good thing licked. It happens and with even luck in running here can return to the winner’s stalls. Happy to play on a primary WIN only basis. Also, want something on longshot BRING LUCK at a massive $61+ with both WILLIAM HILL and CENTREBET and also TOP OF MY LIST at $41+ with WILLIAM HILL. Main danger NEW TIPPERARY, happy to end there, despite several others with claims.
SUGGEST: ASTRONOMOS (WIN - PRIMARY) @ $2.80+, BRING LUCK (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $61+, TOP OF MY LIST (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $41+, FIRST FOUR (roving 4, 6, 12 / F), (roving 4, 6, 13 / F) (CONFIDENCE 45%)
Race 6: Now for the first of two Group 1 features, starting with the Champagne Stakes for the two year olds over 1600m. Again, despite conceding hot fave INVADER is the clear cut one to beat, personally think $1.85 is unders/no value and as a result happy to play a couple at longer prices instead. The two in question are ABERRO at $20+ (CENTREBET) and ONE MORE HONEY at $15+ also with CENTREBET. ABERRO has been good without winning at first two starts and at the price happy to take the punt he is ready to run the race of his life third up. While ONE MORE HONEY was back on a track favouring front runners significantly and as a result a total forgive behind INVADER last time. Main danger INVADER, ahead of WHISPERED SECRET who dungeon followers were on with success last week and striving for a hat trick of wins.
SUGGEST: ABERRO (EACH WAY) @ $20+, ONE MORE HONEY (EACH WAY) @ $15+ FIRST FOUR (roving 1, 6, 8 / F), (roving 1, 7, 8 / F) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 7: Now for the feature of the day, the Group 1 All Aged Stakes to be run over 1400m. Everyone knows I simply love LE ROMAIN who has been very good to me and all followers the past 6 months since winning at a big price on Derby day when we simply cleaned up. Want to play here, however do think he’s rock bottom odds and have slight queries dropping back to 1400m on the back of rough sort of run in the Doncaster. Just wonder whether he has the right level of zip in his legs and weighing up all current prices, somewhat reluctantly looking to play others instead. The others are REDKIRK WARRIOR at $12+ (CENTREBET) and longshot JAPONISME at $34+ with each of UBET, SPORTSBET and BET365. REDKIRK WARRIOR has had one bad run in the Doncaster where he was not alone (actually beat LE ROMAIN home by 2.1L) and all of a sudden every man and his dog seems to have jumped off with the softer track. The money came last time and I’m expecting the track to be much improved by race 7 Saturday and as a result think the double figure price is worth the punt each way for a galloper with obvious ability and great potential. Then, there’s JAPONISME who is out of form no doubt, but think it’s time for the step up to 1400m and with a softer run in transit with the intention to sit off and finish, could cause a boilover at a big price. Main dangers LE ROMAIN, ENGLISH, TIVACI and MCREERY. The latter two are absolutely flying (all four are to be honest), but don’t get in so well at the weights here, hence the query. Great race!
SUGGEST: REDKIRK WARRIOR (EACH WAY) @ $12+, JAPONISME (EACH WAY) @ $41+, FIRST FOUR (1, 5, 8, 9 / F / 1, 5, 8, 9 / 2, 3), (1, 5, 8, 9 / 1, 5, 8, 9 / F / 2, 3) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 8: Penultimate event is the final black type race of the day, a Group 3 for the three year old fillies over 1400m. Tough race as you get with the females in black type events but love the way two finished off against the pattern of the day last time behind DIDDUMS. The two in question are MY COUNTRY and INVINCIBELLA both at $10+ with most operators. Happy to simply play around the two who have both drawn alongside each other in the middle to hopefully give themselves every chance. Main dangers ZUMBELINA, SMART AMELIA (who we snagged 3rd with last time at 60/1 before heavy backing) and PROMPT RESPONSE. Doesn’t end there, but that will do given current prices and expected multiple/first four/quaddie percentages we would be looking to acquire.
SUGGEST: MY COUNTRY (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $10, INVINCIBELLA (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $10+, FIRST FOUR (3, 6, 9 / 5, 7 / F / 5, 7) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 9: And we finish with a benchmark 100 (if you don’t mind) over 1400m and this is a very tough race to finish with. Wide open and plenty of chances. It’s probably a case of FABRIZIO or anyone and given the weather, inconsistent nature of the track, etc happy to play three others at odds, instead of putting all eggs in the one basket. However, if there is even just steady money for FABRIZIO, then a one out final leg of the quaddie might be in order. The three I can entertain best at odds are *KELLYVILLE FLYER* at $26+ (most operators), MARENOSTRO at $13+ (most operators) and BE LIKE DAD at $19+ with BET365. Reckon *KELLYVILLE FLYER* in particular is big overs, always consistent, returned well at Group 3 at Newcastle behind Happy Clapper who ran so well in the Doncaster and gets in on the minimum for Timmy Clarke. Great each way value and definitely the BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. MARENOSTRO also returns very well to be ready to fire second up, while BE LIKE DAD is in career best form and importantly excels at the trip, while many others will be looking for longer. Main danger without a doubt FABRIZIO, ahead of next best in PAJARO and GOD’S IN HIM. But race runs very deep hence why there’s so much value on offer away from the favourite.
SUGGEST: *KELLYVILLE FLYER* (EACH WAY) @ $26+, MARENOSTRO (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $13+, BE LIKE DAD (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $19+, FIRST FOUR (1 / F / 4, 9 / 3, 11, 13), (1, 4, 9 / 1, 4, 9 / F / 3, 11, 13) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Average odds a juicy $18.87+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: MONGOLIAN WOLF @ $3.70+, COUNTERATTACK @ $10+
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: SWEET SERENDIPITY @ $29+, KELLYVILLE FLYER @ $26+