SATURDAY, APRIL 15, 2016
Racing at CAULFIELD for the second consecutive week with fine weather forecast again, and currently looking at a GOOD (4) surface.
RAIL: +4M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to CAULFIELD with the rail out +4M after being in the TRUE position last week. Hoping for even track where all runners get their chance (pace dependant). However, as always, be sure to keep a close eye on early races for best guide.
CENTREBET offering the best odds across the board, recommend signing up below. Markets as low as 108% only comparable to Betfair in many instances:
Race 1: We start with a benchmark 84 for the fillies and mares over 1600m and pace/tactics and how track is playing set to be key. Not a race I’m overly enthused about, but at the odds happy to have a slight lean towards CATCH A FIRE at $9+ with SPORTSBET. Hasn’t been far away without really threatening of late, but back around a bend, drawn the rail, can hopefully have the gun run behind the leader and with a touch of luck at the top of the straight give a kick and be hard to catch. Main danger LADY SELKIRK down in grade here, but in all honesty not much between most here and every runner with legitimate winning claims. Tough start to what looks a tough card.
SUGGEST: CATCH A FIRE (EACH WAY) @ $9+, FIRST FOUR (3 / F / F / 2) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 2: Next are the two year olds over 1100m and with many debutantes a fair bit of guesswork involved. A little wary of strong support for several early (notably EASY BEAST $6 into $3.80), however you couldn’t help but be impressed by the trial of MANY REWARDS and am surprised by the subsequent price on offer at $3.50+ (LUXBET, SPORTSBET, BET365). Alderson stable and adamant if it (gelding) was from another stable would be much shorter. Happy to play there but respect any money elsewhere, especially for larger stables and first starters. Going to run with main danger EASY BEAST given strong support past 24 hours in early markets.
SUGGEST: MANY REWARDS (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.50+, FIRST FOUR (3 / 5 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 3: Benchmark 78 over 1100m. Nature of the day, but the first of many big, even, ultra-competitive fields. The good news is there is plenty of value on offer, the bad news is it’s not necessarily easy to find a bunch of winners across the card. Expect quaddies and multiples to pay well, so be sure to take a few, even for smaller percentages. Think best value here lies with STAR STEALER at $8.50+ (UBET, SPORTSBET, LUXBET) and GREY STREET after a long freshen up at $13+ with BET365. STAR STEALER was solid at Bendigo and although drawn poorly, there is only the one bend to content with here and in big fields like this three wide with cover is sometimes a much safer place to be, taking some luck in running out of the game. We’ll probably know our fate after 250m in terms of whether we are able to get cover or not. GREY STREET I think is an underrated galloper and more than capable of running a big race in this grade fresh. Very consistent and although not technically first up, 84 day break and goes well fresh. Main dangers FIRSTHAND and EL SICARIO. But, doesn’t end there, deep race.
SUGGEST: STAR STEALER (EACH WAY) @ $8.50+, GREY STREET (EACH WAY) @ $13+, FIRST FOUR (12, 19 / 11, 15 / F / 11, 15) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 4: Now for an open handicap for the three year olds over 1400m. Another tricky race, but loved the way **ANOTHER COLDIE** hit the line at to win at Morphettville after looking in a touch of trouble midway down the straight. Dug deep and really got going in between horses when needed. Great sign to see them take advantage of narrow gap between horses and be confident enough to shoot through. This isn’t overly difficult and can take the step up to metropolitan Melbourne grade. If he salutes, I think we all do ourselves a favour at this particular moment and head to the fridge for ‘another coldie’. Happy to play each way at $4.60+ with both UBET and BET365. Happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main dangers THROSSELL (main query the sticky gate, has the class) and WATERLOO SUNST who we were on last time at Bendigo when run well in a leader dominated affair. In saying that, another deep race and doesn’t end there.
SUGGEST: **ANOTHER COLDIE** (EACH WAY) @ $4.60+, FIRST FOUR (F / 1, 9 / F / 2) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 5: Open event for the three year olds fillies with our girl IF NOT NOW WHEN scratched after drawing barrier 19 of 19. Will be saved for Sale but query most definitely is the 1100m as she’s struggling to run 1000m, yet alone 1100m. Keen on MERRIEST here at $7+ with each of LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU and BETSTAR. We backed this filly with success on debut and this race looks perfect at a nice each way price. Also, want something on longer shot CLOCKWORK ORANGE at a juicy $41+ with BET365. Given the price, will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers ARTEMIS ROSE, SELENIA and MOONLOVER. Another big field and deep race.
SUGGEST: MERRIEST (EACH WAY) @ $7+, *CLOCKWORK ORANGE* (EACH WAY @ $41+, FIRST FOUR (F / 2, 7, 16 / F / 3, 11), (2, 7, 16 / 3 / F / 11) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 6: Open event over 2425m (to be precise) and quite simply HANS HOLBEIN should be winning this comfortably at $1.95+ with LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU and BETSTAR. At first glance I thought, gee he’s “unders”, but after looking closer, drops 6kg from last start dominant win and as a result should be winning again here. Very hard to beat, primary play on a WIN only basis. Also, want something on DE LITTLE ENGINE whose best is good enough and is $12+ with BET365. Main dangers BOOM TIME and SELF SENSE.
SUGGEST: HANS HOLBEIN (WIN - PRIMARY) @ $1.95+, DE LITTLE ENGINE (WIN / EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $12+, FIRST FOUR (1, 6 / 3, 4 / F / 3, 4) (CONFIDENCE 60%)
Race 7: We start what looks a very tough quaddie with a benchmark 90 over 1200m. Another wide open affair but with the 1200m giving runners a long time to try and find a spot/cover, happy to play a couple drawn wide at odds. The two in question are ROCK ‘N’ GOLD at $15+ (CROWNBET, BET365, CENTREBET) and HEZA RIPPER at $13+ with BET365 and CENTREBET. Both racing well in similar grade and with a touch of luck from their respective gates are right in this up to their eyeballs. The issue will be if the fence is advantaged, with runners unable to sweep out wide, however hoping/expecting an even track, hence hoping no apparent advantage either way. Main dangers MISS GUNPOWDER and SEBRING SUN but at the risk of sounding like a broken record, another wide open, big field with many chances.
SUGGEST: ROCK ‘N’ GOLD (EACH WAY) @ $15+, HEZA RIPPER (EACH WAY) @ $13+, FIRST FOUR (F / 3, 11 / F / 7, 8) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 8: Now for the first of two features, commencing with the Group 3 Victoria Handicap to be run over 1400m. Looking at a three pronged attacked her at very different odds. First and foremost think HELLOVA STREET should be very hard to beat here at $3+ with most operators. Should get the perfect run and assuming an even track hard to catch after pinching a break when they straighten. Shooting for four straight and in red hot form, 28 day freshen up, ticks all the boxes. Primary WIN only play, ahead of a secondary play on TURBO MISS at a juicy $23+ with LUXBET and CENTREBET. Going off run two back, right in this, happy to forgive last start behind the very good I Am A Star. Finally, want a longshot play also on *RHYTHM TO SPARE* at $51+ with WILLIAM HILL. Was down on best form last prep, but looks to have done sufficient work to be fit enough to improve here fresh. At the price, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main danger HOOKED.
SUGGEST: HELLOVA STREET (WIN - PRIMARY) @ $3, TURBO MISS (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $23+, *RHYTHM TO SPARE* (EACH WAY) @ $51+, FIRST FOUR (F / 3, 7 / F / 12, 16), (3 / F / 7 / 12, 16) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 9: Penultimate event is the second of the features, in the form of the Group 3 Easter Cup over 2000m. Keen to play around two here in the form of **SECOND BULLET** at $7+ with CENTREBET and one we liked last week before the races were abandoned in O’LONERA at a tidy $19+ also with CENTREBET. **SECOND BULLET** looks very well suited, like the freshen up for this and assuming it’s a target race as a result. Happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main dangers GOLDSTREAM and WAR LEGEND but once again race runs much deeper in yet another big, competitive affair. Don’t be scared to take smaller percentages in first fours, quaddies, etc as on days like this they could pay anything.
SUGGEST: **SECOND BULLET** (EACH WAY) @ $7, O’LONERA (EACH WAY) @ $19+, FIRST FOUR (F / 10, 17 / F / 12, 16) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 10: We finish with an open event over the mile (1600m) and like PLOT THE COURSE again here at $13+ with BET365 and CENTREBET. Have been on a few times without winning, but does look well placed, albeit running out of chances. Then, also want something on NEVIS first up for Lloyd Williams also at $13+ with BET365. Happy to simply play around the two. Main dangers FRENCH EMOTION, GREAT ESTEEM and ORMITO. For the final time, deep race.
SUGGEST: PLOT THE COURSE (EACH WAY) @ $13+, NEVIS (EACH WAY) @ $13+, FIRST FOUR (F / 1, 3 / F / 5, 16) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Average odds a juicy $14.31+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: ANOTHER COLDIE @ $4.60+, SECOND BULLET @ $7+
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: CLOCKWORK ORANGE @ $41+, RHYTHM TO SPARE @ $51+