SATURDAY, APRIL 22, 2016
Racing at CAULFIELD for the third consecutive week with some rain forecast on Friday (up to 10mm) but then expected to fine up again on Saturday. Currently rated a GOOD (3), but given the forecast, anticipating a GOOD (4) surface at this stage.
RAIL: +8M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to CAULFIELD with the rail out +8M after being out +4M last week and in the TRUE position the week before that. Hoping for even track where all runners get their chance (pace dependant), however expecting those on pace/closer to the fence to be given every chance. However, as always, be sure to keep a close eye on early races for best guide.
Race 1: We start with a benchmark 90 over a decent 4000m if you don’t mind. You’d expect the three that fought out the finish at Oakbank to do the same here and hard to separate the three, especially with modified weights here. Happy to go with the one of the three at the best odds PRIZE at $4.40+ (CROWNBET, BET365) and importantly gets the biggest weight swing (-5kg) as opposed to BAYANOVA down 4kg and the winner SPUR ON GOLD who drops 3kg. Main dangers BAYONOVA and SPUR OF GOLD. Note, no third dividend.
SUGGEST: PRIZE (EACH WAY) @ $4.40+, FIRST FOUR (3, 5 / 3, 5 / 4 / F) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 2: Benchmark 78 over the mile (1600m) and with Richmond up and about want something on the two tigers here. Just in case you’re instantly worried, no that’s not why, but just so happens I want to play ELITE TIGER on a primary basis at $8.50+ (most operators), in addition to a secondary play on longshot *CELTIC TIGER* at $61+ with BET365. ELITE TIGER should get the perfect run up on/near the pace and with minimal pace on paper, should be hard to catch. Gets handy 1.5kg claim from young up and comer Benny Allen. *CELTIC TIGER* like many others run off their feet against Top Me Up and can definitely improve (needs to) second up at a huge price. Happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main dangers KAPSET and MR CHURCHILL but doesn’t end there.
SUGGEST: ELITE TIGER (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $8.50+, *CELTIC TIGER* (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $61+, FIRST FOUR (8, 10 / 1, 6 / F / 1, 6) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 3: Open event also over the mile (1600m) and ***BURNING FRONT*** simply wins this at $1.65+ with most operators. With enough confidence that I’m happy to have a crack at restarting the famous Rollover Bet and see how we go moving forward. Our first was very successful, so fingers crossed we return to the original rollover bet form of yester year. Such a primary play on a WIN only basis.
SUGGEST: ***BURNING FRONT*** (WIN) @ $1.75+ (CONFIDENCE 85%)
ROLLOVER BET #1: ***BURNING FRONT*** (WIN) @ $1.75+
Race 4: Another open event, this time over 2000m and going to give TOFFEE NOSE another chance after missing for us last time at a shorter price, when the excuse of a firm track was used. Wasn’t far away and has run several brilliant races for us at big odds (in much better races than this), hence deserves another chance at a tidy each way price of $7+ with CROWNBET, BET365, SPORTSBET and LUXBET. Main danger RUTHVEN, HARD CALL (another one of my faves) and ROCKSTAR REBEL. That’ll do.
SUGGEST: TOFFEE NOSE (EACH WAY) @ $7.00+, FIRST FOUR (3, 9, 10 / F / 3, 9, 10 / 11) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 5: Big, rich race for the two year olds over 1200m and the very best of luck to some followers who happen to have a share in our filly If Not Now When, but at the moment much more excitedly the short favourite here in JE SUIS TYCOON. Missed the jump, hard ridden before the turn on at Bendigo before reminding many of our filly INNW a year ago and sprouting wings late. Good luck to all involved. However, from a betting perspective, heart goes out the window, and personally think she is little value here at a short $3.30 with most operators. In a wide open affair (if you take on the fave), prefer to play a few at big odds instead of one at the skinny price. As a result, keen to play each of *MANY REWARDS* @ $34+ (most operators) and WANTED DIVA @ $26+ (BET365). We were on *MANY REWARDS* on debut when not disgraced and all of a sudden goes out to $31+. Crazy reaction and as a result will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Whilst, WANTED DIVA debuts here after trialling well and runs for in-form stable which is always a bonus. Main dangers JE SUIS TYCOON and DANGER DEAL.
SUGGEST: *MANY REWARDS* (EACH WAY) @ $34+, WANTED DIVA (WIN / EACH WAY @ $26+, FIRST FOUR (F / 2, 10 / F / 7, 16) (CONFIDENCE 25%)
Race 6: First leg of the quaddie is for the fillies and mares over 1400m. Concede that the two at the top of the weights in FRENCH EMOTION and WHISTLE BABY are the ones to beat, but little value once again and as a result, prefer to play a couple of longer prices in the form of DEJA BLUE @ $16+ (BET365) and TYKIATO also at the same $16+ with most operators. DEJA BLUE got tripped up over the mile, but has had a freshen up and return back to the much more suitable 1400m, where only two starts back was only 1.5L from the handy Turbo Miss, Rising Romance and Jalan Jalan. Good enough to be very competitive here at a nice each way price, while TYKIATO had a break after winning three on the trot last prep, before disappointing down the straight before subsequent freshen up. Happy to forgive one bad run and hope she can step up to this longer trip which is unknown territory but worth the punt on ability alone. Main dangers the two mentioned FRENCH EMOTION and WHISTLE BABY, in addition to DIAMOND BARONESS.
SUGGEST: DEJA BLUE (EACH WAY) @ $16+, TYKIATO (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $16+, FIRST FOUR (1, 2, 7 / F / 1, 2, 7 / 5, 6) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 7: Now for the feature, the Listed Bel Esprit over 1100m. Good race, plenty of chances, but looking to play the ultra-consistent **CRYSTAL DREAMER** at a tidy $10+ with SPORTSBET. Drawn awkwardly, but just the one bend over 1100m at Caulfield, hence hoping the in-form Damien Lane can find cover, not far away from them and assuming those away from the fence are getting their chance, should give a great sight at double figure odds. Happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day at the double figure price. Main dangers FAATINAH, MALIBU STYLE and respect any support for NAHUTA after a long break. Good race, runs deep.
SUGGEST: **CRYSTAL DREAMER** (EACH WAY) @ $10+, FIRST FOUR (1, 2, 8 / F / 1, 2, 8 / 6) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 8: Penultimate event is another open event, this time over 1200m. Good race with plenty of chances, however of them all think best value lies with two in particular in the form of THERMAL CURRENT at $9+ (most operators) and one we have had a bit of luck with in recent times in PRUSSIAN VIXEN at $11+ with BET365. THERMAL CURRENT went well first up when not particularly well weighted, while gets in nicely at the weights here despite being top weight with 59kg. A massive 8.5kg swing in the weights compared with FAST CASH. PRUSSIAN VIXEN is flying and keeps stepping up to the plate, making up luck up in front. Form is fantastic when you really drill down, such as win over Silent Sedition and Ameristralia only two starts back. Once again over the odds and great each way value. Main dangers RICH CHARM and TYCOON TARA.
SUGGEST: THERMAL CURRENT (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $9, PRUSSIAN VIXEN (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $11+, FIRST FOUR (4, 8 / 1, 11 / F / 1, 11) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 9: We finish with the three year old olds, also over the mile (1600m). Tricky finish but do think **THINK BABE** is the one at each way odds at $6.50+ (BET365) who looks nicely placed despite the wide gate. There doesn’t look to be a heap of pace up front so should hopefully cross easily enough. Primary each way play and actually happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Then want a secondary play on FANFARON at a juicy $18+ with both LUXBET and SPORTSBET. Main dangers GREVISTE and SWORD OF LIGHT. But race doesn’t end there.
SUGGEST: **THINK BABE** (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $6.50, GREVISTE (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $18+, FIRST FOUR (5, 12 / 8, 12 / F / 8, 12) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Average odds a juicy $18.68+ per suggested runner!
***ROLLOVER BET #1***: BURNING FRONT (WIN) @ $1.75+
** BEST VALUE **: CRYSTAL DREAMER @ $10+, THINK BABE @ $6.50+
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: CELTIC TIGER @ $61+, MANY REWARDS @ $34+