SATURDAY, APRIL 22, 2016
Racing at ROYAL RANDWICK with the penetrometer reading 6.05, hence looking at a HEAVY (8) surface
RAIL: +2M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We return to RANDWICK with what looks set to be another bog track and the rail back in to the +2M mark across the entire circuit, after being out +7M/+5M last week. Despite the heavy conditions, Sydney tracks being favouring those closer to the pace/fence in recent times. Given the conditions and most importantly the significant rail move, be sure to keep an eye on early races for best guide.
CENTREBET offering the best odds across the board, recommend signing up below. Markets as low as 108% only comparable to Betfair in many instances:
Race 1: We start with the two year olds over 1100m. DEBONAIRLY is the obvious one to beat but rock bottom odds at $1.85 with most operators. Prefer to play through multies instead of major standalone investment. Instead, think better value lies with THE MIGHTY FED at a tidy $7+ with UBET and BET365. Main danger DFEBONAIRLY, throw a blanket over the rest. Note, no third dividend.
SUGGEST: THE MIGHTY FED (EACH WAY) @ $7+, FIRST FOUR (4 / 2, 3, 5, 6 / 1 / 2, 3, 5, 6) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 2: Benchmark 78 over 1200m. Distinct lack of tempo here and predominately for this reason I think I THOUGHT SO @ $2.40+ (most operators) was the one to catch, with the expectation of a very soft lead, plus is in form and handles the going. Ticks all the boxes, primary WIN only play. Also, want a secondary play on QUICK FEET at a juicy $19+ with BET365. Suggested a play last week when scratched and for similar reasons (down in grade) can fire first up. Slight query the heavy track, but at the juicy price, happy to take the gamble. Main dangers GIBRALTOR GIRL and CALABASAS.
SUGGEST: I THOUGHT SO (WIN - PRIMARY) @ $2.40+, QUICK FEET (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $19+, FIRST FOUR (5, 6 / 3, 4 / F / 3, 4) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 3: Benchmark 78 over the mile (1600m) and this is very difficult as the market suggests with the entire field at 9/1 or less. In saying that, think SIZZLING BULLET @ $5.50+ (SPORTSBET, CROWNBET, BET365) can return to the winner’s stalls after tripping up in Group 1 Guineas (as many did on bog track over 2000m) and this is obviously much easier and back to the mile after a freshen up should suit. Main danger THE PINNACLE, then throw a blanket over the rest. Note, no third dividend.
SUGGEST: SIZZLING BULLET (EACH WAY) @ $5.50+, FIRST FOUR (6 / 2, 5, 7, 9 / 1 / 2, 5, 7, 9) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 4: Another benchmark 78, this time over the mile and a half, aka 2400m. Going with the very tough PARAGON at $7+ with CENTREBET. Has just missed past couple, including narrow loss to main danger here in MORE ENERGY. But on both occasions, stuck on extremely well and I love hard, tough Sargent trained gallopers. Main dangers MORE ENERGY and RICHARD OF YORKE who gets in well at the weights here but rock bottom odds at $2.20 with most operators. Note, no third dividend.
SUGGEST: PARAGON (EACH WAY) @ $7+, FIRST FOUR (6, 8 / 1, 2, 3, 4 / 7 / 1, 2, 3, 4) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 5: Class 2 over 1400m and a very open and competitive event as the market suggests. Actually have two that have come out on top, and given their prices (both single figures, actually going to suggest WIN only plays on each. The two in question are A LOT LIKE HOME at $8+ (CENTREBET) and ONLY CHOICE at $6+ also with CENTREBET. Throw a collective blanket over the rest in another very even field.
SUGGEST: ALOT LIKE HOME (WIN) @ $8+, ONLY CHOICE (WIN) @ $6+, FIRST FOUR (F / 6, 7 / F / 6, 7) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 6: Benchmark 85 also over the mile (1600m). There are three that jump out here, MONTAUK @ $5+ (CENTREBET), MY PSYCHIATRIST @ $3.30+ (CROWNBET, UBET) and GRAND DREAMER @ $3+ (BET365) and given I have them all as equal top picks, will logically run with the one at the best odds in the form of MONTAUK. Ultra-consistent galloper, freshened up and back to 1600m here. Not the geldings pet distance (just short of), however the heavy conditions over the Randwick mile, you normally need a runner who is better over longer, which is definitely the case here. Main dangers the other two mentioned MY PSYCHIATRIST and GRAND DREAMER. Note, once again no third dividend.
SUGGEST: MONTAUK (EACH WAY) @ $5+, FIRST FOUR (8, 9 / 1, 3, 4, 7 / 2 / 1, 3, 4, 7) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 7: First leg of the quaddie is the benchmark 90 Ranvet Handicap to be run over 1000m. NIETA looks the one to beat here at a short, but decent enough $2.20+ with CENTREBET. Looks to be well above average and decently weights considering she’s arguably the best horse in the race, or at least potentially. Suggest a primary WIN only investment. Also, want something on *WOULDN’T IT BE NICE* at a very juicy $31+ again with CENTREBET. Has had a break after running in very good black type races, when simply not good enough, but drop back in grade and distance suits. Loves the slop also. At the price, will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers SIR BACCHUS (weight the obvious query with 61kg) and SUPER MAXI.
SUGGEST: NIETA (WIN - PRIMARY) @ $2.20+, *WOULDN’T IT BE NICE* (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $31+, FIRST FOUR (1, 9 / 3, 6 / F / 3, 6) (CONFIDENCE 55%)
Race 8: Now for the feature…again, in the form of the second running of the Group 1 Sydney Cup over the two miles (3200m), for the second time in a matter of weeks. We controversially snagged the winner on the first occasion in the form of POLARISATION but on that occasion we snagged $26, and today is $6.50 with most operators. Ouch! The big query/concern is here is it’s not usual to back them up over this trip so quickly (at least in Australia, given the lake of such races) and as a result a lot comes down to who has taken no ill effects from the run. Going to now lean at the revised odds on WHO SHOT THEBARMAN at $12+ with most operators. Recall him backing up from a Melbourne Cup and then smashing them at Sandown a few weeks later, so that sticks in my mind in terms of backing up, although the first cut of this race, many didn’t obviously run a true two mile. Drawn awkwardly, but not as important for him and gun hoop Shinn to hopefully try and find a spot close to the fence. Then want something on two at big odds, one being *KINEMA* again at $31+ (we liked a couple of weeks’ ago and settled well) and also HARLEM at $31+ with SPORTSBET and CROWNBET. Happy to stagger bets around those and make *KINEMA* a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main danger still BIG DUKE, BOOM TIME and TALLY. Am now going to risk the two Godolphin runners who ran the full two mile out hard last time, even though last time those were the ones I had on top. Yep, all very confusing given the circumstances. Very interesting affair.
SUGGEST: WHO SHOT THEBARMAN (EACH WAY) @ $12, *KINEMA* (EACH WAY) @ $31+, HARLEM (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $31+, FIRST FOUR (3, 4, 6 / 1, 7, 11 / F / 1, 7, 11) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 9: Penultimate event is a benchmark 78 over 1400m. Like **PIANISSIMO** here at a very tidy $9.50+ with each of UBET, CROWNBET and BET365. Looks great each way valuel, should get a lovely run from the gate (3) and importantly gets very handy 3kg claim, ending up with significantly less weight than all runners besides bottom weight MR MCBAT. Happy to play there and actually make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main dangers MOSS ‘N’ DALE, ROARING TO WIN and DREAMFORCE, but doesn’t end there ($2.70 favourite SUPPLY AND DEMAND not even mentioned) in a tricky race if we haven’t landed the winner at a nice price.
SUGGEST: **PIANISSIMO** (EACH WAY) @ $9.50, FIRST FOUR (1, 2, 7 / F / 1, 2, 7 / 10) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 10: We finish with a benchmark 76 for the fillies and mares over 1400m and like **COUNTESS MARINOV** here at $4.60+ with most operators. Critical 2kg claim to hopefully turn the tables on key rival and main danger GRETNA who beat here last time at Warwick Farm. Main dangers the Waller pair of GRETNA and also VIA NAPOLI. Just reckon it’s a touch short of VIA NAPOLI’s pet trip, but both wouldn’t not surprise at all and are musts for quaddies, savers, multiples, and/or similar. Happy to make another BEST VALUE bet of the day, so a BEST VALUE double to end the day in Sydney.
SUGGEST: **COUNTESS MARINOV** (EACH WAY) @ $4.60, FIRST FOUR (roving 2, 7, 10 / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Average odds a juicy $15.08+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: PIANISSIMO @ $9.50+, COUNTESS MARINOV @ $4.60+
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: WOULDN’T IT BE NICE @ $31+, KINEMA @ $31+