SATURDAY, APRIL 29, 2016
Racing at HAWKESBURY with the penetrometer reading 4.8, hence looking at a GOOD (4) surface, yes that’s correct, we’re in Sydney and on a GOOD track!
RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to HAWKESBURY for another one of their days in the sun (literally). Hoping for an even track, but given the track and change of weather, be sure to keep an eye on early races for best guide.
CENTREBET offering much better odds for a handful below, suggest signing up below:
Race 1: We start with a benchmark 84 over 2100m and like GREAT GLEN here up from Melbourne for the powerful Chris Waller stable at $4.50+ with BET365. Looks the one to beat for mine, ahead of main danger LOOKIN’ AT YOU.
SUGGEST: GREAT GLEN (EACH WAY) @ $4.50+, FIRST FOUR (5 / F / F / 6) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 2: Now for the two year olds over 1300m and although I concede SERENA BAY looks hard to beat, especially with minimal pace on paper, just think $1.90 is skinny, hence am going with ICON OF DUBAI at a tidy $7+ (CROWNBET, PALMERBET) on an each way basis instead. Did nothing wrong on debut, finishing well and should have derived benefit for the race day experience and hopefully ready for a second start assault. Main danger the obvious in SERENA BAY, followed by TANGLED who is drawn awkwardly once again so will need some luck, but is good enough to win if the breaks come.
SUGGEST: ICON OF DUBAI (EACH WAY) @ $7+, FIRST FOUR (roving 1, 2, 4 / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 3: Class 3 over 1100m and a very tough affair, with very little between many here. Slight lean MOSS MY NAME here at $4.60+ with SPORTSBET. Drawn poorly, but has Blake Shinn aboard to hopefully counteract that. Goes well fresh and as long as there is solid enough support (no dramatic drift) that happy to play in her corner. Main dangers LOVES A HASSLE and DON’T DOUBT HER, but doesn’t end there in a wide, open affair. Tough race.
SUGGEST: MOSS MY NAME (EACH WAY) @ $4.60+, FIRST FOUR (6, 8 / F / F / 3) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 4: Open event over 1100m and another wide open affair in which I’m looking to play two at juicy double figure prices. The first is *COOLRING* first up at $18+ with CENTREBET. Many will think the distance will be too short for this galloper but recall having something on two preps back first up over this trip when won at 40/1. Last time was in a hot race including Spieth and was only 4.1L behind (no disgrace), so can bob up here in a much easier race fresh. At the price, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. The other is PALAZZO PUBBLICO at $15+ with CENTREBET, will appreciate the drier track here after failing on unsuitable softer tracks in recent times. Throw a blanket over many others. Happy to just play the two.
SUGGEST: *COOLRING* (EACH WAY) @ $23+, PALAZZO PUBBLICO (EACH WAY) @ $15+, FIRST FOUR (F / 4, 5 / F / 4, 5) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 5 (updated at 11.21am): Benchmark 85 over 1300m and another tricky race on what looks a very tricky card. Have come out with **YUMA DESERT** on top at $8.50+ with each of LUXBET, PALMERBET and CROWNBET. Didn’t look fit enough to win first up, so should strip fitter here and despite the bad gate, think Shinn can cross easy enough. At the price, happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main danger stablemate ASTARA but race runs much deeper. -> With the scratching of YUMA DESERT who was a BEST VALUE bet of the day, updated suggestion for this particular race becomes ASTARA each way at $6.50+ with CENTREBET.
SUGGEST: ASTARA (EACH WAY) @ $6.50+ (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 6: Now for the first of the features, in the first leg of the main quaddie, the Group 3 Godolphin Crown for the fillies and mares over 1300m. Tough race again as you get with the group female events, however I do think ARTISTRY is the clear top pick at $4+ with BET365. Drawn well, Bowman aboard, absolutely flying, hard to beat. Happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Also, want something on TSARITSA at a juicy $34+ with most operators. Is out of form, but convinced she’s much better on top of the ground, which she gets here. Expected marked improvement and is a regular to this grade and even stronger. Main danger DAYSEE DOOM, but again at the risk of sounding like a broken record, doesn’t end there.
SUGGEST: **ARTISTRY** (EACH WAY) @ $4+, TSARITSA (EACH WAY) @ $34+, FIRST FOUR (8 / F / F / 1, 2) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 7 (updated at 11.25am): Next of the features, is the Group 3 Hawkesbury Guineas for the three year olds over 1400m. Like CALANDA here @ $4.40+ (most operators) for the awesome combination of Snowden and Bowman. Yet to run a bad race in 5 starts and looking for a hat trick of wins in succession here. Main danger SPRIGHT, although not ideal missed a trial earlier in the week, hence fitness levels a slight query, and PROMPT RESPONSE. - Given the scratching of YUMA DESERT, will upgrade CALANDA to also be a BEST VALUE bet of the day.
SUGGEST: **CALANDA** (EACH WAY) @ $4.40+, FIRST FOUR (4, 11 / F / F / 5) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 8: Penultimate event is the last of the features, the Group 3 Hawkesbury Gold Cup to be run over 1600m. Super race, but plenty of chances and ultra-competitive. *RULING DYNASTY* gets in very well at the weights dropping a big 5kg for 2.1L defeat behind key rivals KELLYVILLE FLYER (who saluted for us at $26!) and DUCA VALENTINOIS. As a result can turn the tables at a juicy $21+ with BET365. At the price, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Then, also want something on arguably the class galloper of the field in the Group 1 winner VANBRUGH @ $14+ (LADBROKES, BETSTAR, BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU) who has been out of form, but mainly on unsuitable wet tracks. Can improve on top of the ground despite this being a little short of pet trip. Main dangers MIGHTY LUCKY, MOHER and PAJARO but race runs much, much deeper with plenty of legitimate winning chances.
SUGGEST: *RULING DYNASTY* (EACH WAY) @ $21, VANBRUGH (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $14+, FIRST FOUR (1, 8, 13 / 4, 14 / F / 4, 14), (1, 8, 13 / F / 1, 8, 13 / 4, 14) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 9: We finish with a benchmark 78 over 1500m, a very tough finish to what looks a very tough day at Hawkesbury. Happy to play a couple at double figure price tags in the form of SO WILLIE at $14+ (most operators) and CLASSIC RECORDS at $20+ (CENTREBET). SO WILLIE returned well with first up win and no reason why he can’t replicate or ideally improve further to be competitive here. While, CLASSIC RECORDS has been flying if you are happy to put a line through last start flop over 2000m. Drop back to 1500m suits. Also, gets handy 2kg relief, dropping to 55.5kg. Throw a blanket over the rest.
SUGGEST: SO WILLIE (EACH WAY) @ $14, CLASSIC RECORDS (EACH WAY) @ $20+, FIRST FOUR (F / 5, 6 / F / 5, 6) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Average odds a juicy $11.29+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: ARTISTRY @ $4+, CALANDA @ $4.40+
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: COOLRING @ $23+, RULING DYNASTY @ $21+