SATURDAY, APRIL 8, 2016
Racing at ROYAL RANDWICK for week 2 of The Championships. And yes, more rain in Sydney, although the forecast looking better the closer we get to Saturday. Penetrometer reading TBC, so currently looking at a HEAVY (8) surface, but weather is on the improve.
RAIL: +4M (1600M – WINNING POST), +3M (REMAINDER). We head to ROYAL RANDWICK again after being here last week when the rail was in the TRUE position. Interestingly, the rail was the better going, with those out wide struggling to make ground (Chautauqua aside), hence as important as ever to monitor early races for best guide. Would normally expect them to be getting off the fence, however given last week, fingers crossed for simply an even surface with all runners getting their chance, pace dependant.
Race 1: We start with a Listed event for the two year olds over the mile (1600m), always a strong test for the juveniles, especially given the softer conditions. Like the James Cummings duo here in the form of MEDAL KUN @ $17+ (LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU and BETSTAR) and WHISPERED SECRET @ $6+ with CROWNBET. MEDAL KUN gets the right weight swing to turn tables on key rival COULTHARD and gets the best in the business in Hugh Bowman aboard. WHISPERED SECRET has done little wrong in short career and the extra trip looks perfect. Main dangers MURAAHIB and TOGA PICTA.
SUGGEST: MEDAL KUN (EACH WAY) @ $17+, WHISPERED SECRET (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $6+, FIRST FOUR (1, 3 / 5, 9 / F / 5, 9) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 2: Next is another Listed event, this time for the three year olds over 1400m. Average racer and extremely tough. Was on ROSA CAROLINA in the spring in much better races than this when very good and as a result, given the mixed and in many instances average form lines to line up here, happy to play there at $11+ with CROWNBET and BET365. Then, also want a play on APIATA at $26+ (most operators) for the in-form Brideoake stable. Form only okay at first glance, but again when lining up against the rest, there’s nothing too flash we’re dealing with here in my humble opinion. Main dangers the Godolphin trio of BEZEL, PEACOCK and BRYNEICH.
SUGGEST: ROSA CAROLINA (EACH WAY) @ $11+, APIATA (EACH WAY) @ $26+, FIRST FOUR (2, 3, 4 / 8, 12 / F / 8, 12) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 3: Next is the Group 2 Percy Skyes for the two year old fillies over 1200m. We were on SHOALS last time at a good price ($7) before extremely heaving backing, smashed into $2.75!!! And saluting accordingly. Don’t see any reason to jump off here at a respectable $4.40+ with BET365. That’ll do. Note, no third dividend.
SUGGEST: SHOALS (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $4.40+ (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 4: Now for the Provincial Championships Final to be run over 1400m and once again what an incredible experience for all connections to be involved in The Championships. Might sound like a broken record, but love the concept, and good luck to all involved. Getting to rub shoulders with the likes of Winx on a day like this is simply special, win, lose or draw. Concede POMELO is the clear cut one to beat, but happy to leave for the most part at the skinny $2.90 with most operators. Suggest to play through multies and even a one out early quaddie leg instead of standalone larger investment. Instead, prefer to play a couple at juicier odds in the form of BETTER NOT BLUE at $10+ with LUXBET, ahead of REIBY RAMPART at $18+ also with LUXBET. BETTER NOT BLUE returned with a very good 2nd behind key rival NOBLE JOEY after a lengthy 222 (Richie Benaud special) day spell and has since been saved for this second up. Looks very well suited and no doubt a target race. REIBY RAMPART looks good overs here, running very good time in recent runs including an extremely slick 1.15.91 at Newcastle and to make things more impressive led and still proved far too good. Handles softer ground and nothing wrong with the 1.24.08 over 1400m on a heavy surface. Main danger POMELO who is definitely hardest to beat and might simply be too good.
SUGGEST: BETTER NOT BLUE (EACH WAY) @ $10+, REIBY RAMPART (EACH WAY) @ $18+, FIRST FOUR (roving 2, 9, 14 / F) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 5: Now the racing really heats up, with the Group 2 three year old Arrowfield Sprint over 1200m. Good race, very competitive and happy to again play around a couple of juicy double figure odds. Firstly, **DERRYN** at $10+ with most operators after we were on at a big price last week in the TJ Smith when simply outclassed by the world’s best in Chautauqua and co. Back to own age, handles the wet, absolutely no reason to jump off and surprised by the price on offer. At double figure odds, happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. The other is DEFCON at a juicy $19+ with most operators. First up form very good, hot Snowden stable, with Blake Shinn aboard who goes very well for the stable. Going to come down to fitness and how wound up he is for this race and given the nature of the race, going to assume it’s a target race. Main dangers GLENALL, SPRIGHT and IMPENDING. Concede GLOBAL GLAMOUR is a strong chance but big unders for mine at a skinny $3.70 with most operators, so happy to risk. Good race.
SUGGEST: **DERRYN** (EACH WAY) @ $10+, DEFCON (EACH WAY) @ $19+, FIRST FOUR (2, 5, 12 / 3, 4 / F / 3, 4) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 6: Now for the first of four consecutive Group 1s, starting with the Group 1 Australasian Oaks for the three year old fillies over 2400m. Good race as you’d expect and not the easiest to decipher, given the distance on a softer track, usually a query with the three year old fillies over this trip. Going to stick with **HARLOW GOLD** @ $5.50+ (BET365, CROWNBET) who we’ve been on of late, running well, without winning. This would always have been the aim and was one of few horses to make ground on that terrible leader’s track on Victoria Oaks day. Happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Then, want something on *WAKING MOMENT* at $41+ (CENTREBET) who won well last week against the bias and happy to take the punt up in grade at the juicy price. Given the price, happy to actually make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers NURSE KITCHEN, LASQUETI SPIRIT, BONNEVAL and DEVISE.
SUGGEST: **HARLOW GOLD** (EACH WAY) @ $5.50+, *WAKING MOMENT* (EACH WAY) @ $41+ FIRST FOUR (1, 3, 4, 6 / 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8 / F / 5, 8) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 7: Now for the feature, amplified by the superstar mare WINX @ $12+ (CENTREBET) in the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth to be run over 2000m. You don’t need to be a rocket scientist to tell you that WINX is simply superior to all other running around, illustrated by a 9+L defeat of Chautauqua last time, only for Chautauqua to come out last week and thrill us all in the Group 1 TJ Smith. Barring a disaster, she will be winning and an easy first leg of the quaddie which for many will be a treble. In all honesty, $1.12 is decent enough value for a freak like her, be sure to put her in all multies, one out quaddie and similar exotics. Besides that, regardless of whether you invest or not, simply sit back, and enjoy a super star salute for win #17 on the trot.
SUGGEST: WINX (WIN) @ $1.12+ (CONFIDENCE 100%)
Race 8: Next is the Group 1 Sydney Cup run over two miles (3200m). Last year we had tipped LIBRAN at 100/1 at the start of the Autumn, only to see the gelding find 1 better in Gallant, as favourite in this race with the $26 place some consolation, but when you wait all Autumn we all wanted the $101 price. Don’t think the locals are flying, and as a result although we missed when Charlie Appleby misfired in the Mornington Cup, there were major excuses with a torrid run throughout, obviously tragically taking its toll as they crossed the line. As a result, going to play the stablemates here in PENGLAI PAVILION @ $10 (most operators) and POLARISATION @ $16+ (SPORTSBET). They dominated in the Spring, form is good and they get in with featherweights 52kg and 51.5kg respectively. Expect both to roll forward and make this is true staying affair. Then, also want to have something on longshot *KINEMA* at $41+ with most operators. Has been affected by heavy tracks in recent times and with this track on the improve, can definitely improve and should be one you can hopefully trust to run a strong two mile. Will appreciate the extra pace here and at the price, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers ASSIGN, BIG DUKE and WHO SHOT THEBARMAN.
SUGGEST: PENGLAI PAVILION (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $10, POLARISATION (EACH WAY) @ $16+, *KINEMA* (EACH WAY) @ $41+, FIRST FOUR (1, 5, 7 / 10, 11, 14 / F / 10, 11, 14) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 9: Penultimate event is the last of the Group 1s, in the form of the Coolmore Legacy Stakes for the fillies and mares over 1600m. Tough race as you expect with the Group 1 events for the females and as a result, happy to play a few at odds in what looks a very tough race. Going to play each of REAL LOVE @ $17+ (BET365), OREGON’S DAY @ $26+ (BET365), and then a longshot play JESSY BELLE @ $81+ also with BET365. REAL LOVE drops in grade back to own sex and as long as she handles the softer conditions, should be right in this. The drier the better. Similarly, OREGON’S DAY who is low flying up from Melbourne and once again just needs to handle the track to be a good chance. JESSY BELLE has always shown promise but I think the transition to the Hayes/Dabernig stable has made the difference and did win Group 2 only two starts back. Main dangers led by PURE PRIDE (wanted to squeeze in at $19+ but can’t have them all), DIXIE BLOSSOMS, SILENT SEDITION, HEAVENS ABOVE and ZANBAGH but this is tough and it doesn’t even end there.
SUGGEST: REAL LOVE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $17+, OREGON’S DAY (EACH WAY) @ $26+, JESSY BELLE (EACH WAY) @ $81+, FIRST FOUR (1, 3, 5, 6 / F / 1, 3, 5, 6 / 4, 11, 18) (CONFIDENCE 25%)
Race 10: We finish with the Group 2 Sapphire Stakes over 1200m, also for the fillies and mares. Tricky finish, many chances, but slight lean first up to TYCOON TARA at $8+ with CENTREBET. Good each way price, ahead of longshot hop HIEROGLYPHICS at $41+ also with CENTREBET. Main dangers led by TYCOON TARA’s stablemates in ARTISTRY and RAVI, however again with the females, doesn’t end there.
SUGGEST: TYCOON TARA (EACH WAY) @ $8+, HIEROGLYPHICS (EACH WAY) @ $41+, FIRST FOUR (2, 11 / 1, 2, 11, 12 / F / 1, 12) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Average odds a juicy $20.45+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: DERRYN @ $10+, HARLOW GOLD @ $5.50+
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: WAKING MOMENT @ $41+, KINEMA @ $41+