SATURDAY, APRIL 8, 2016
Racing at CAULFIELD with fine weather forecast, and currently looking at a GOOD (3) surface.
RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to CAULFIELD with the rail in the TRUE position. Hoping for even track where all runners get their chance (pace dependant). However, as always, be sure to keep a close eye on early races for best guide.
Race 1: We start with the two year olds over 1200m and like PLUTOCRACY here @ $3.10+ with most operators for the Hayes/Dabernig stable. Won well on debut, in good time and no reason to jump off here. Throw a blanket over the rest.
SUGGEST: PLUTOCRACY (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.10+ (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 2: Next is a benchmark 78 over 1800m and think this is a race in three, or so I hope. Market is spot on with the two shorter in the market in the form of STONE WARRIOR @ $3.80+ (most operators) and ROCKSTAR REBEL @ $3.30+ (SPORTSBET, BET365). In saying that, don’t think there is much between them and as a result I’ll naturally run with the better priced STONE WARRIOR. Primary play, ahead of Waller overseas raider in LIFE LESS ORDINARY @ $15+ (SPORTSBET), making Australian debut. Would be a fantastic training performance to win first up over this trip but the stable have been patient and the kilometres are definitely in the legs. Secondary each way play. Main danger the obvious in ROCKSTAR REBEL, ahead of OVERBERG.
SUGGEST: STONE WARRIOR (WIN / EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $3.80+, LIFE LESS ORDINARY (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $15+, FIRST FOUR (2, 13 / 4, 11 / F / 4, 11) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 3: Now for the three year old fillies over 1600m and race has completely changed complexion with the scratching of KENEDNA who would have been extremely hard to beat here. Be sure to get on in Adelaide (Morphettville, Race 7 #1), should be winning! As a result, now need to run with one who we have been on at odds on a couple of occasions, each time running very well (without winning) and gets in extremely well here. The runner in question is TOFFEE NOSE @ $3+ (BET365) and although much shorter odds than on previous occasions ($151 – Derby Day 4th, $26 – two starts back 3rd), the one to beat here and top pick. Also, want something on value runner STAR PATRIOT at $31+ with both SPORTSBET and BET365. Throw a blanket over the rest, not a great deal between many.
SUGGEST: TOFFEE NOSE (WIN / EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $3+, STAR PATRIOT (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $31+, FIRST FOUR (F / 6 / F / 9) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 4: Now for a Listed event over 2400m for the three year olds. Tough race and not a great deal between many and a lot of different form lines to try and line up. Slight lean WIN BUSH at $4.80+ with most operators. Comes down from north of the border and last start on the bog track was a forgive when beaten a long way. Many runners on the day simply didn’t handle it. Main danger MISS STRATHALLAN.
SUGGEST: WINE BUSH (EACH WAY) @ $4.80+, FIRST FOUR (11 / F / F / 1) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 5: Open event over 1000m. Good and very competitive race. Key here is the 1000m distance with many preferring longer and you could even argue some shorter. As a result, think the one best placed is **THERMAL CURRENT** @ $5+ with UBET and LUXBET. Has returned to form in recent times and this is a drop in grade. Gets handy 1.5kg claim and should be hard to beat after a freshen up. Happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main dangers CRYSTAL DREAMER and MALIBU STYLE, but doesn’t end there in a wide open affair.
SUGGEST: **THERMAL CURRENT** (EACH WAY) @ $5+, FIRST FOUR (4, 9 / F / F / 1) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 6: Open event over 1200m and another wide open and very competitive affair. Plenty of value on offer and as a result, having a play around three runners here with staggered outlays. Firstly OVERSTEP @ $10+ (most operators) who has had excuses in recent times and adamant she will be better around the bend which she gets here. Meets key rival and as you’ll see another we’re keen on HEAR THE CHANT 2kg better for 1.2L defeat and slight lean to turn the tables. In saying that, still happy to play HEAR THE CHANT at a tidy $13+ also with most operators. Very consistent galloper who saluted for us last time at nice odds and every chance of doing it again here. Then, want something on longshot hope *TAN TAT BEAUTY* at a very juicy $51+ with BET365. Was very well backed first up last time when missed the jump badly and was never a chance (back and wide) and now all of a sudden 50/1+ on the back of that. Decent overs, main concern the bad gate, but at such a price happy to take the punt on some luck from there. At the price, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers KEN’S DREAM, VERSTAPPEN and FALCOOL.
SUGGEST: OVERSTEP (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $10+, HEAR THE CHANT (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $13+, *TAN TAT BEAUTY* (EACH WAY) @ $51+, FIRST FOUR (2, 4, 9 / 1, 13, 17 / F / 1, 13, 17) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 7: Now for an open event over 1800m and not a race that I’m overly enthused about. FRENCH EMOTION does look the one to beat, but rock bottom odds at $2.70 with most operators. As a result, prefer to save for multies, narrow/one-out quaddie leg instead of risking with a large standalone investment. Instead, slight lean to O’LONERA @ $9+ (most operators) who gets in with a featherweight of 52kg after the claim from Ben Thompson. Hasn’t won for a while, but normally thereabouts and has been racing in similar to better races than many of these. Primary each way play. Then, want to have a secondary play on longshot *PURPLE SMILE* at a massive $61+ with SPORTSBET. Was more than capable at this level before issues/long break, but showed enough on return after long break to make me think there’s hope for a blowout second up. Happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day given big price. Main danger the obvious in FRENCH EMOTION who is the one to beat, the price the only concern/knock.
SUGGEST: O’LONERA (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $9+, *PURPLE SMILE* (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $61+, FIRST FOUR (roving 4, 5, 11 / F) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 8: Penultimate event is another open event, this time over the lime and a half, also known as 2400m. The market seems right with HANS HOLBEIN, ahead of BOOM TIME and DE LITTLE ENGINE who I concede are the main dangers in that order, but don’t think there’s value playing in either of their camps and hence prefer to have a play at a couple of others at juicy prices. The two in question are LUCQUES @ $16+ with most operators and ANGELOLOGY @ $26+ with SPORTSBET. Finished alongside each other last time behind Snitzelwood, and although Snitzelwood knocked up behind HANS HOLBEIN last week, was forced to race at a farcical tempo and as a result had legitimate excuses making all the running up front. Main dangers HANS HOLBEIN, BOOM TIME and DE LITTLE ENGINE, all must for quaddies and multiples.
SUGGEST: LUCQUES (EACH WAY) @ $16, ANGELOLOGY (EACH WAY) @ $26+, FIRST FOUR (1, 5, 6 / 1, 4, 5, 6, 8 / F / 4, 8) (CONFIDENCE 25%)
Race 9: We finish what looks a tough card, with the fillies and mares over 1100m. Don’t see any reason to jump off **LAKE COMO** @ $5+ (most operators) after dominating all behind her last time down the straight. Still well weighted down to 54kg, which can hopefully counteract the slight jump in grade. Happy to play there, and make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. In addition to a play on GREY STREET at $10+ also with most operators. Another who hasn’t won for a while, but does look nicely placed here at double figure odds. Main dangers HIGHLY GEARED and ATMOSPHERICAL.
SUGGEST: **LAKE COMO** (EACH WAY) @ $5+, GREY STREET (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $10+, FIRST FOUR (2, 4 / 7, 13 / F / 7, 13) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Average odds a juicy $16.67+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: THERMAL CURRENT @ $5+, LAKE COMO @ $5+
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: TAN TAT BEAUTY @ $51+, PURPLE SMILE @ $61+