SATURDAY, MAY 13, 2016
Racing at DOOMBEN for the always intriguing Doomben 10000 with a 60% chance of more rain forecast (2 - 10mm) on an already soft track. Fair difference between 2-10mm falling today, so we’ll run with the assumption of some more rain, but nothing too major. Penetrometer currently 5.43, so currently on a SOFT (6) surface.
RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to DOOMBEN for one of their major race meets of the year, and the rail back in the TRUE position. Hoping for even track where all runners get their chance (pace dependant), but given the conditions, expecting no disadvantage to be getting away from the fence and potentially running. But as always, be sure to keep a close eye on early races for best guide.
Race 1: We start with a class 6 over 1110m, with many runners coming into this with decent form, although many different form lines. Hard to go past the favourite here in INVINCIBLE EXPRESS at $3.10+ with CENTREBET. Low flying on big run of consecutive wins. Not much harder here. Hard to beat, happy to play on a primary WIN only basis. Also want something on top weight MARSCAY FORCE @ $34+ (CENTREBET) despite drawing the car park. I think the gelding’s adaptable enough to settle further back if need be, allowing Dittman to assess things once they jump and make a quick but decisive call. Happy to simply play around the two.
SUGGEST: INVINCIBLE EXPRESS (WIN - PRIMARY) @ $3.10+, MARSCAY FORCE (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $34+, FIRST FOUR (F / 1, 5 / F / 1, 5) (CONFIDENCE 45%)
Race 2: Benchmark 85 over 1350m. Open race, but do lean towards PRIVLAKA here at $5+ (CENTREBET), although I was hoping for a little better given latest form doesn’t necessarily read fantastically to the naked eye. Drawn awkwardly, but currently making the assumption that that’s not necessarily a bad thing with the expectation they will get off the fence, especially as the day progresses. Time will tell if that eventuates. Primary play ahead of PAYROLL who is more than capable of a cheeky run fresh here at a tidy $10+ with most operators. Wouldn’t want any more rain, but do keep an eye out for stable support. Main dangers MATERNAL, KUZNETSOVA and DON’T DOUBT MAMA.
SUGGEST: PRIVLAKA (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $5+, PAYROLL (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $10+, FIRST FOUR (7, 12, 13 / 2, 14 / F / 2, 14) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 3: Now for the first of six straight black type events, commencing with a Listed event for the three year olds over the mile (1600m). Primary play on **JUMBO PRINCE** with the ‘best horse’ rule activated. Looks hard to beat in this grade at a very appealing $4.20+ with UBET and SPORTSBET. At the price actually happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Then, more than anything I want saving WIN plays on both SULTAN OF SWING @ $11+ (CROWNBET, BET365) over from New Zealand, the land that has been simply dominating when coming across in recent times. And also SEBRINA at a juicy $21+ (also with CROWNBET, BET365) who has a knack of producing a flat first up run, before improving significantly second up, which happens to the be situation here. That’ll do.
SUGGEST: **JUMBO PRINCE** (EACH WAY) @ $4.20+, SULTAN OF SWING (WIN - SECONDARY) @ $13+, SEBRINA (WIN – SECONDARY) @ $21+, FIRST FOUR (roving 2, 8, 10 / F) (CONFIDENCE 45%)
Race 4: Now for the Group 2 Champagne Classic for the two year olds, run over 1200m. Tough race, plenty of guesswork, especially with the softer conditions. Slight lean SHE’S OUR STAR at $6.50+ (most operators) ahead of SHOWASHADOW at $14+ with BET365. Both have been very good in short career over shorter trips, and return here hopefully bigger, better and stronger to run a big race over the 1200m. Open race.
SUGGEST: SHE’S OUR STAR (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $6.50+, SHOWASHADOW (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $14+, FIRST FOUR (F / 11, 12 / F / 11, 12) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 5: Next is the Listed Queensland Day Stakes for the three year olds over 1350m. And it’s that NZ form that keeps serving us well, so don’t see any reason to jump off now in the form of HALL OF FAME at $5.50+ with each of UBET, BET365 and CENTREBET. Then want something on longshot *RUTHLESS AGENT* at a very juicy $31+ with UNIBET. Can be up and down, but his ups are good enough to be competitive here. At the price, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main danger OINK and then a plethora of others all shorter in the market (MORTON’S FORK, BILLY THE KID).
SUGGEST: HALL OF FAME (EACH WAY – PRIMARY) @ $5.50+, *RUTHLESS AGENT* (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $31+, FIRST FOUR (roving 3, 4, 8 / F), (4 / F / 2, 7 / 3, 8) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 6: Group 3 Chairman’s Handicap over 2000m. Tricky race, but sticking with the kiwis with group form over there and as is always the case with the New Zealanders, the wetter the better, just in case the rain does continue to come down. CHOCANTE is the one at $6+ (most operators) and gets to the right trip at what looks the ideal time, making me think this is definitely a targeted race and has been for a while. Hopefully, the plan comes off. Also, want something on MORENDI at $12+ (UNIBET) who is an underrated galloper and should be hitting the line hard. Then, something small on longshot SAKHEE’S SOLDIER at a juicy $31+ with SPORTSBET, CROWNBET and CENTREBET. Was not far away in a hot race last time and on that alone is a chance at odds. Spread bets accordingly in the order provided for obvious reasons. Main danger STAMPEDE at rock bottom odds of $2.60 with most, but do concede hard to beat and THE CHAIRMAN.
SUGGEST: CHOCANTE (WIN / EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $6+, MORENDI (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $12+, SAKHEE’S SOLDIER (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $31+, FIRST FOUR (F / 2, 8 / F / 1, 7, 9) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 7: Now for the feature, the Group 1 Doomben 10000, run over 1200m. Slight lean to one who has been good to us in recent times in DERRYN at $10+ (most operators). Another who will appreciate any further rain, so no concerns here (arguably enhances chances with other more disadvantaged) and even beyond last start win, didn’t disgrace in top-drawer TJ Smith two starts back. Also, want something on an old favourite *THE MONSTAR* where you can write your own ticket at an enormous $151+ with most operators. Class is the obvious query, but this has raced at the top level without disgracing. i.e. 5.5L behind Star Turn and Malaguerra four starts back. First up, hopefully wound up for this and is 2 of 4 fresh. Worth a throw at the stumps at such a price and an obvious to throw in as BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers REDZEL, MUSIC MAGNATE, COUNTERATTACK and another kiwi START WONDERING. Red hot favourite RUSSIAN REVOLUTION an obvious key chance, but massive unders at $3.10 with most in this field, hence happy to simply risk.
SUGGEST: DERRYN (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $10+, *THE MONSTAR* (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $151+, FIRST FOUR (5, 6, 7, 8 / 5, 6, 7, 8, 10, 13 / F / 10, 13) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 8: We finish with the Group 3 Rough Habit Plate for the three year olds, run over 2000m. Looks a relatively simply finish on face value and that’s in the form of **VELADERO** at $4+ with each of UBET, BET365 and CENTREBET. Runner up to the very promising looking Mongolian Wolf who hopefully has run and won by the time this race comes around and recent trial was sensational. Keen and happy to finish with a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main dangers ORDER AGAIN who was devastating last time and SHOCKING LUCK who is never far away.
SUGGEST: **VELADERO** (EACH WAY) @ $4, FIRST FOUR (roving 1, 12, 14 / F), (12, 14 / 1 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Average odds $21.25+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: JUMBO PRINCE @ $4.20+, VELADERO @ $4+
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: RUTHLESS AGENT @ $31+, THE MONSTAR @ $151+