SATURDAY, MAY 13, 2016
Racing at CAULFIELD for the fifth of six weeks, after a well-earned rest last week. Fine, overcast conditions expected, no rain expected, so currently looking at a GOOD (3) surface.
RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to CAULFIELD with the rail back in the TRUE position after it was out +12M two weeks’ back when we last raced here. Hoping for even track where all runners get their chance (pace dependant), but as always, be sure to keep a close eye on early races for best guide.
Race 1: We start with the two year olds over 1100m and plenty of guesswork in this one with limited form, including trial form to work with. Slight lean towards TYCOON DANCER at $4.20+ with SPORTSBET, UBET and BET365. Somewhat speculative, however in top stable, there’s been support and always don’t mind when they have some gear added on debut, meaning they at least have done some work. Also, want something on TOURIST ATTRACTION at a juicy $21+ (SPORTSBET, CROWNBET, BET365) who has shown enough in jump outs to say she’s a chance.
SUGGEST: TYCOON DANCER (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $4.20+, TOURIST ATTRACTION (EACH WAY) @ $21+, FIRST FOUR (F / 8, 10 / F / 8, 10) (CONFIDENCE 25%)
Race 2: Benchmark 90 over 1100m and a good, competitive affair. We had some luck with AIRALIGN last prep at a nice price, and don’t see any reason to not have a play here first up at $8+ with each of LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU and BETSTAR. Has won in even better class before and as long as there is even support to suggest fitness levels are adequate, happy to play. Also, want something on *ESPIRITU* at a very juicy $21+ with CROWNBET. Underrated galloper from the Sunshine state who is good enough to cause an upset here. At the price, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main danger red hot favourite SHAF who is the one to beat but little value at the short quote.
SUGGEST: AIRALIGN (EACH WAY) @ $8+, *ESPIRITU* (EACH WAY) @ $21+, FIRST FOUR (2 / 1, 8 / F / 1, 8) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 3: Next is a benchmark 78 for the three year old fillies over 1400m and an good, even affair. Can’t split two here, hence suggesting a play on both given respective prices on offer. The two in question are PEDRENA @ $7+ (UBET) and SAVAJU at $13+ with CROWNBET. Both consistent gallopers normally in/around the money in these types of events. No reason why that won’t be the case here. Main dangers FRAGONARD, PLENTY TO LIKE and EXTRA OLIVES.
SUGGEST: PEDRENA (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $7+, SAVAJU (EACH WAY) @ $13+, FIRST FOUR (6, 8, 13 / 11 / F / 6, 8, 10, 13) (CONFIDENCE 45%)
Race 4: Another benchmark 78 over 1400m and really like **DANE THUNDER** here at a tidy each way $7+ with CROWNBET. Very consistent and we have been aboard with success not so long ago and looks very well suited here. Gets up to more suitable trip after going down by 1.3L at both starts this prep when 3rd and 4th respectively. At the price, happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main danger THELBURG but very open affair once again.
SUGGEST: **DANE THUNDER** (EACH WAY) @ $7+, FIRST FOUR (F / 5 / F / 7) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 5: Open event over the mile (1600m). Top pick KENJORWOOD at $2.80 with each of UBET, BET365 and LUXBET. Looks very well suited this grade and despite the poor gate, should be able to cross easily enough and most likely sit just behind the leaders, or worst case simply lead. Primary play on a WIN only basis, in addition to a secondary play on PETROLOGY at $10+ with LUXBET, CROWNBET and BET365. Nicely placed in this grade, will appreciate a strong pace up front and should not have any excuses. Main dangers ZEBRINZ, ONPICALO, IN FAIRNESS and CASTELO.
SUGGEST: KENJORWOOD (WIN – PRIMARY) @ $2.80+, PETROLOGY (WIN / EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $10+, FIRST FOUR (3, 5, 9, 10 / 2, 7 / F / 2, 7) (CONFIDENCE 45%)
Race 6: First leg of the quaddie is a benchmark 84 over 2000m and another good, competitive race with plenty of legitimate winning chances. Slight lean to DUKE OF ELLINGTON at $6.50+ with UBET who simply needs to have a touch of luck from the sticky gate (10) to be very hard to toss on an each way basis here. In good form after taking a couple to acclimatise down under. Ahead of *NEVERLAND* at the top of the weights at a juicy $19+ with BET365. Gets critical 3kg claim, dropping down to 59.5kg (still 1kg more than any other), but a classy galloper on her day, two starts ago only 0.1L from Star Exhibit who won for us a couple of weeks back so fresh in our mind. Happy to make another BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers HURSLEY, OVERBERG and GRAND DREAMER.
SUGGEST: DUKE OF ELLINGTON (EACH WAY) @ $6.50+, *NEVERLAND* (EACH WAY) @ $19+, FIRST FOUR (7, 10, 11 / 1, 6 / F / 1, 6) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 7: Now for the three year olds over 2000m and you simply go past MONGOLIAN WOLF here at $2.40+ with most operators, after we backed at a tidy price last time when winning a good group 3 event in Sydney at Australian debut. Extremely hard to beat, happy to play one out in the quaddie. Main danger RIGHT HAND RED.
SUGGEST: MONGOLIAN WOLF (WIN) @ $2.40+, FIRST FOUR (12 / 1 / F / F), (F / 1 / 12 / F) (CONFIDENCE 60%)
Race 8: Penultimate event is for the three year olds over 1200m with our filly IF NOT NOW WHEN bypassing this “seemingly” stronger race for a 1050m event in Adelaide. Another deep race, but think BORD DE GAIN is still somewhat underrated after after just missing a hat tricks of wins after only three starts in short career last time behind main danger and race favourite here in WISE HERO. Bad gate (15), but hoping Ben Thompson can find an appropriate spot and hopefully salute at $11+ with most operators. Also want something on WAZZENME at $17+ with BET365 and UBET. We were on last week in Adelaide in a much tougher race when not disgraced, hence if I liked there, need to entertain here at the juicy price. Main dangers WISE HERO, TERINDAH and KATSURO, but doesn’t end there.
SUGGEST: BORD DE GAIN (EACH WAY) @ $11, WAZZENME (EACH WAY) @ $17+, FIRST FOUR (1, 9, 10 / F / 1, 4, 5, 9, 10 / 4, 5) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 9: We finish with the mares over 1200m and want to finish with one we have been on at both runs this prep, in **GREY STREET** at a respectable $4.60+ with LUXBET. Just missed behind the speedy Miss Vista first up, dominate win here last time and with confidence up, no reason he can’t make it back to back wins. Primary each way play, and at the price happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Ahead of a secondary play on VITAL IMPORTANCE at $17+ with both CROWNBET and UBET. Main dangers TYKIATO, MAJESTIC LASS, DEJA BLUE and INVINCIBLE HEART but at the risk of sounding like a broken record, doesn’t end there.
SUGGEST: **GREY STREET** (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $4.60, VITAL IMPORTANCE (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $17+, FIRST FOUR (2, 3, 9, 10 / 5, 7 / F / 5, 7) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Average odds $10.72+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: DANE THUNDER @ $7+, GREY STREET @ $4.60+
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: ESPIRITU @ $21+, NEVERLAND @ $19+