SATURDAY MAY 20, 2016
Racing at MORPHETTVILLE with the penetrometer reading 5.33, meaning we find ourselves looking at a GOOD (4) surface.
RAIL: +4M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). No reason to not expect a level playing field, pace dependant. As always, be sure to keep an eye on early races for best guide.
Race 1: We start with a benchmark 75 over 1200m. Concede SO YOU TOO looks hard to beat on paper, especially given form around Fuhryk who we are keen on later, however the query at the very short price is the barrier and where they’ll end up in the run. As a result, happy to play a couple of others at juicy prices instead. Firstly, LAUCHETTI at $16+ with CENTREBET. Ultra-consistent and not far behind Mr Sneaky who is low flying at the moment. Form ties in nicely for this level and 58kg no issues with good runs recently with as much as 60.5kg on his back. Also want something on FLORAL FEVER at a juicy $41+ with CENTREBET. Should roll forward from the good gate and get a nice run in transit, and although needing to improve at this level, at the price happy to punt that he can. Main danger the obvious in SO YOU TOO.
SUGGEST: LAUCHETTI (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $16+, FLORAL FEVER (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $41+, FIRST FOUR (F / 18 / F / 5, 8) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 2: Now the first of seven black type events, commencing with the two year olds, in the Group 3 National Stakes over 1200m. At first glance, thought BOOKER was little value and was confident we could get her beat, however the more I look, the more I think the price is ‘okay’ and she should be very hard to beat at $1.90+ with CENTREBET. Should get the perfect run in transit behind a dent tempo up front and be in a position to peel around them at the right time and pinch a race winning lead, before holding a few swoopers out late. Happy to play on a primary WIN only basis. Also want a secondary play on I’LL HAVE A BIT at $14+ with UBET and BET365. Was hitting the line well enough behind BOOKER last start to be entertained over the extra 100m here. Main danger PURE SCOT.
SUGGEST: BOOKER (WIN - PRIMARY) @ $1.90+, I’LL HAVE A BIT (WIN / EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $14+, FIRST FOUR (roving 6, 7, 9) (CONFIDENCE 45%)
Race 3: Now for the Listed Port Adelaide Cup over 2500m and I’d be surprised if one of HIGH CHURCH or TIME TO TEST doesn’t win this, and at the better odds ($5 v $2) happy to go with the better value in TIME TO TEST at $5.50+ with CENTREBET. Very consistent, not far behind the above average Goldstream last time and importantly gets 5kg off top weight and main danger HIGH CHURCH. Predominately due to the weight lean that way, with main danger HIGH CHURCH flying but rock bottom odds and needs to lump 59kg, the obvious query. Happy to simply play around the two.
SUGGEST: TIME TO TEST (EACH WAY) @ $5.50+, EXACTA (HIGH CHURCH, TIME TO TEST) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 4: Next is the SA fillies classic, a Group 3 event for the three year old fillies over 2500m. Sticking with **SAVVY DREAMS** here at $8+ with CENTREBET after taking on the boys last week in the Derby. Didn’t disgrace, hit the line well and is rock hard fit for this. Back to own sex on the quick backup looks well placed each way and good enough to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Then a secondary play on *ABOVE AUTHORITY* at $67+ with BET365. In top stable who love bringing horses up through the distances and grades with big improvement, even when unexpected. Worth a throw at the stumps at a huge price despite class concerns. At the price, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers ANA ROYALE, PARTHESIA and SMART AS YOU THINK.
SUGGEST: **SAVVY DREAMS** (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $8+, *ABOVE AUTHORITY* (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $67+, FIRST FOUR (1, 3, 4 / F / 1, 3, 4 / 2, 14) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 5: First leg of the main quaddie is the Listed Centaurea Stakes over 2019m. Despite the wide gate, sticking with **TICK TICK BLOOM** here at $4.60+ with LUXBET. Am all over and loving these WA runners heading east and performing extremely well either in new yards (notably Weir, but even Hayes later today with Vega Magic) and this is the galloper who beat the very talented Gallic Chieftain who we like in Melbourne today (albeit over less uitable shorter trip at the Bool), but this doesn’t look any harder. Just needs a touch of luck from the gate and as long as cover is found before the second bend (plenty of time) should be hard to beat. Happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Then, also want something on MISS DUBOIS at $17+ with BET365. Interestingly, much better than all other operators at present. Going well, ultra-consistent (only missed a place twice) also a sticking gate (12) but inside our top pick hence hoping they slot in similarly and with cover. Main dangers HAVE ANOTHER GLASS, VANDANCER freshened up and SORT AFTER.
SUGGEST: **TICK TICK BLOOM** (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $4.60+, MISS DUBOIS (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $17+, FIRST FOUR (2, 3, 4 / 1, 11 / F / 1, 11) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 6: Group 3 R. A Lee Stakes to be run over the mile (1600m). No reason to jump off the one who was our first Rollover suggestion this prep and saluted accordingly. Still searching for #2. Patience game. But the runner of course is BURNING FRONT at $2.80+ (LUXBET) who should roll along as he does up front and be hard to catch. Obviously if track is favouring on pacers at all, then chances increase, alternatively if issues with the rail then decreased confidence. However, expecting it to be even and as a result a primary play. Main dangers HOOKED, ROYAL RUMBLE and RHYTHM TO SPARE.
SUGGEST: BURNING FRONT (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $2.80+, FIRST FOUR (2, 3, 4 / F / 1 / F) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 7: Penultimate event is the feature of the day (arguably anywhere in Australia) in the Group 1 Goodwood over 1200m. Sticking with one who was super out west when flew home for 4th when we were on at a big price and time to try and get a return at another juicy price with *FIRST AMONG EQUALS* at $21+ with SPORTSBET. Runs time, smashed the clock first up (albeit in the bush) and the quicker they go, the better. At the price, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Also, don’t see a reason to jump off SECRET AGENDA and at another each way price happy to also have something in her corner at $8+ with CENTREBET. Main dangers BLACK HEART BART, MALAGUERRA, VEGA MAGIC and ILLUSTRIOUS LAD. Cracking race!
SUGGEST: *FIRST AMONG EQUALS* (EACH WAY) @ $21+, SECRET AGENDA (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $8+, FIRST FOUR (1, 2, 5, 7 / 6, 11 / F / 6, 11), (1, 2, 5, 7 / F / 1, 2, 5, 7 / 6, 11) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 8: And we finish a Group 3 for the fillies and mares over 1200m and FUHRYK is the one once again, here at $3+ with most operators. They haven’t missed her but we’ve aboard with success in recent times, and we were stiff last time when a Best Value of the day, flying late after interrupted run to just miss behind Sweet Sherry who is given a chance in the G1 Goodwood. Hard to beat, but does need a touch of luck again from sticky gate, but adamant is the best in the race and with some lucky should be too good. Then a secondary play on SCHISM at a tidy $17+ with most operators. Running well and capable at this level and despite many of the key chances, drawn an inside marble. Main dangers RAVI, SAMARA DANCER and ENTRACING at a juicy $23+ (CENTREBET).
SUGGEST: FUHRYK (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $3+, SCHISM (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $17+, FIRST FOUR (3, 4, 14 / 10, 12 / F / 10, 12) (CONFIDENCE 45%)
Average odds $16.20+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: SAVVY DREAMS @ $8+, TICK TICK BLOOM @ $4.60+
*BEST LONGSHOT*: ABOVE AUTHORITY @ $67+, FIRST AMONG EQUALS @ $21+