SATURDAY, MAY 20, 2016
Racing at FLEMINGTON for the second time in three weeks, after a well-earned rest prior to that. Rain about Friday, hence currently looking at a SOFT (5) surface.
RAIL: +3M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to FLEMINGTON with the rail out +3M, after it was in the TRUE position two weeks’ back when we last raced here. Hoping for even track where all runners get their chance (pace dependant), but as always, be sure to keep a close eye on early races for best guide.
Race 1: We start with the two year olds over 1400m and a tricky race with many different form lines to line up, many of which bringing winning or place form to town. Looking to stick with one we were on last time in better grade (on paper) in the form of INDERNILE at $5.50+ with most operators, in addition to HECTA at $13+ with CROWNBET. Was on the wrong part of the track on debut, but still too good and runner up who was in the fast lane SAVAHEAT still couldn’t win and returns for this. Main dangers SALSAMOR, MASCULINO and ALOISIA, but doesn’t end there and race appears to run very deep.
SUGGEST: INDERNILE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $5.50+, HECTA (EACH WAY) @ $13+, FIRST FOUR (F / 5, 6, 12 / F / 3, 4) (CONFIDENCE 25%)
Race 2: Benchmark 78 for the three year old fillies over 1200m and can’t go past the obvious here in DIVINE QUALITY at $2.20+ with CENTREBET. Simply running time and as long as all go to the same side down the straight and doesn’t get caught in inferior ground, should be too good. Happy to play strongly on a WIN only basis. Had it not been the unpredictability of the Flemington straight, could well have been a second Rollover bet suggestion, but just wary of the straight and even Flemington itself given recent history.
SUGGEST: DIVINE QUALITY (WIN) @ $2.20+ (CONFIDENCE 60%)
Race 3: Next is a benchmark 84 over 1800m. Always had a strong opinion of GALLIC CHIEFTAIN and don’t see a reason to not be on here at $4+ with LUXBET and BET365. Good return and ready to fire second up after putting himself on the map last prep when sensational. Distance no doubt a touch short of best, but thinking class can hopefully prevail regardless. Main dangers CURRAGH, LOVING HOME and NEW GRADUATE.
SUGGEST: GALLIC CHIEFTAIN (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $4+, FIRST FOUR (7, 8, 14 / F / 4, 7, 8, 14 / 4, 7, 8, 14) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 4: Next are the three year olds over the mile (1600m). Was keen on one at very good odds in the form of JAWS OF STEEL ($17+) but unfortunately has been scratched. As a result, now suggest a play on THE PASSAGE at $7.50+ with SPORTSBET. Weir has another strong book and THE PASSAGE has the country form to be right in the thick of things here in town. Main danger SPANNER HEAD who should be hard to beat, but rock bottom odds.
SUGGEST: THE PASSAGE (EACH WAY) @ $7.50+, FIRST FOUR (F / 4 / F / 3) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 5: Next is an open event to be run over 1400m and a very even encounter on paper. Going with **CHARMED HARMONY** here who despite a wide gate (16), should be able to cross comfortably enough and assuming on pacers are getting their chance, then should be hard to run down at $7+ with CROWNBET and SPORTSBET. At the price, happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main dangers NOW OR LATER, WELL SPRUNG and SOVEREIGN NATION first up. Race runs much deeper, but happy to leave things there given current prices on offer.
SUGGEST: **CHARMED HARMONY** (EACH WAY) @ $7+, FIRST FOUR (4, 5, 11 / F / 4, 5, 11 / 2) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 6: The first of the features is the Listed Andrew Ramsden, one of the few races run over two mile (3200m) in Australia. I’ll keep this short and sharp and think DE LITTLE ENGINE should be getting the job done here at $2.70+ with LUXBET and UBET. Goes up in weight, but low flying and deserves to get a win over the two mile despite four misses. Plenty of doubters as a result, so hopefully that means we get an even better price.
SUGGEST: DE LITTLE ENGINE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $2.70+ (CONFIDENCE 45%)
Race 7: Now for the second of the features, the Listed Straight Six over you guessed it six furlongs (6 x 200m) or 1200m, down the straight. Slight lean REUTTIGER @ $7.50+ (LUXBET, BET365) first up for new stable having joined the Hayes/Dabernig yard. Goes well fresh and recent trials say ready to run a race first up. The other I want to give another chance to is *THERMAL CURRENT* at $15+ with CROWNBET. Hasn’t been far away, but regardless is better than recent form and hoping we see a step up here, which is required. Happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers MALIBU STYLE, DEMONSTRATE and STELLAR COLLISION, but doesn’t end there. Deep race.
SUGGEST: REUTTIGER (EACH WAY) @ $7.50+, *THERMAL CURRENT* (EACH WAY) @ $15+, FIRST FOUR (4, 7, 11 / F / 4, 7, 11 / 2, 9) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 8: Penultimate event is another open event, this time over 2000m. Like **SECOND BULLET** again here at a decent $5+ with most operators. Have been on run of late and absolutely no reason to jump off. Super consistent, in form, likes the track, likes the trip. Only query would be on a softer track, but the radar looks clear. At the price, happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Also want something on *SELF SENSE* at a juicy $21+ with CROWNBET. Like the freshen up, back to 2000m and a somewhat underrated galloper in my opinion. At the price happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers HURSLEY, OBSERVATIONAL and HARADAFULL.
SUGGEST: **SECOND BULLET** (EACH WAY) @ $5, *SELF SENSE* (EACH WAY) @ $21+, FIRST FOUR (2, 13, 14 / 4, 7 / F / 4, 7) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 9: We finish with a benchmark 78 over the mile (1600m). Assuming they are making ground (and we’ll know by the lucky last) then have AMARELA on top at $6+ with each of LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU and BETSTAR. Primary play each way. Happy to also have a secondary play on BROWN BEN at $15+ with SPORTSBET. McEvoy has a good knack of bringing them across at the right time, sometimes when not seemingly going well enough. Best is good enough to be competitive here but does need to lift which I think he can. Main dangers STEGGLER, KELLSTORM and FASTNET LATINA.
SUGGEST: AMARELA (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $6+, BIG BROWN (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $15+, FIRST FOUR (2, 9, 11 / F / 2, 9, 11 / 5, 10) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Average odds $8.57+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: CHARMED HARMONY @ $7+, SECOND BULLET @ $5+
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: THERMAL CURRENT @ $15+, SELF SENSE @ $21+