SATURDAY MAY 27, 2016
Racing at ROYAL RANDWICK with the penetrometer 5.64, hence currently looking at a SOFT (6) surface.
RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We return to RANDWICK with the rail in the TRUE position, where we hope for a level playing field (pace dependant). As always, be sure to keep an eye on early races for best guide.
Race 1: We start with the two year olds over 1400m. Hard start with a fair bit of guesswork and as a result looking to play a couple at double figure prices. The first is PADRAIG at $10+ with most operators. Get critical 3kg swing in the weights on most rivals for first up defeat and should importantly be fitter for the runner. Should be able to cross comfortably enough from the wide gate. The other is *MADAM MOUSTACHE* at a juicy $26+ with SPORTSBET and BET365. Another who should derive great benefit from first up run and showed glimpse of capability in first prep. At the price, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers SAMBRO, ICON OF DUBAI and KEMENTARI. But race runs much deeper and plenty of chances.
SUGGEST: PADRAIG (EACH WAY) @ $10+, *MADAM MOUSTACHE* (EACH WAY) @ $26+, FIRST FOUR (3, 7, 9 / 2, 12 / F / 2, 12) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 2: Next is a class 3 over 1100m and going with the obvious here in Matthew Dale’s CLIPPER first up at $3.60+ with BET365. Just looks perfectly suited, has the runs on the board and early markets suggested the stable are confident of going well first up. Main danger SUNCRAZE but rock bottom price and no value.
SUGGEST: CLIPPER (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.60+, FIRST FOUR (F / 9, 10 / F / 9, 10) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 3: Next is a benchmark 78 over 2000m. **PROMETHEUS** looks hard to beat here at $4+ with UBET. Was very impressive at Kembla, drops in weight for run in town and can offset wide gate with sheer ability, or so I’m hoping. Main danger SIZZLING BULLET who is on trial for a trip north to the Queensland Derby. Happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day.
SUGGEST: **PROMETHEUS** (EACH WAY) @ $4+, FIRST FOUR (1 / F / 10 / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 4: Next is a benchmark 85 over the mile (1600m). Good, competitive race, with many legitimate winning chances. Finding it hard to split two here in SO WILLIE at $6.50+ (most operators) and KINGSGUARD at $9+ with CENTREBET. Both look very well suited here with KINGSGUARD to get the better run up on the speed and be hard to catch, while SO WILLIE will be getting back from the sticky gate and hopefully rattling home. Main dangers Waller trio of MULTIFACETS, CHANDANA and even throwing in DEVIL HAWK is has the class but is first up from a long break. Doesn’t end there, with many more with serious claims. Tough race.
SUGGEST: SO WILLIE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $6.50+, KINGSGUARD (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $9+, FIRST FOUR (4, 7, 10 / 2, 8 / F / 2, 8) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 5: Now for a benchmark 72 for the three year old fillies over 1400m. Another very competitive and tough race (as illustrated by the market with five runners in single figures) but slight lean in the end to BRULEE at $8+ with UNIBET. Looks well suited this grade and although form on face value might not look great, has not been far behind some very capable gallopers, hence finds the right grade here. 3kg claim is key, dropping to 57kg and should get a gun run from barrier 2. Main dangers ISTRIA and MY TRUE LOVE.
SUGGEST: BRULEE (EACH WAY) @ $8+, FIRST FOUR (4, 5 / F / F / 2) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 6: First leg of the main quaddie is a benchmark 78 for the fillies and mares over 1200m and will keep this nice and simple with TIMES OF WAR who looks very hard to beat at $3.70+ with LUXBET and UBET. Will need some luck from the gate, but assuming the track is playing fairly trusting Tim Clark to get simply a “good enough” run to not use too much gas before the straight. If so, will be hard to beat at a respectable price considering. Then, want a secondary play on MAGIC OF DREAMS at a juicy $19+ with CENTREBET. Main danger SISKEN and NUDIERUDIE.
SUGGEST: IN TIMES OF WAR (WIN / EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $3.70+, MAGIC OF DREAMS (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $19+, FIRST FOUR (1, 10 / 6, 12 / F / 6, 12) (CONFIDENCE 45%)
Race 7: Now for the Listed Mckell Cup over 2400m and a good, little race which I’m hoping runs deeper than what the market suggests. Concede ALLERGIS can BROADSIDE look the two to beat (and they are), however do think better value lies elsewhere, hence will leave them as main dangers and musts for quaddies, etc. Instead, prefer to play a couple at odds who are now at the right trip to start being competitive. The two in question are *BEYOND THANKFUL* at $23+ (CENTREBET) and DANJEU at $20+ also with CENTREBET. Form has been okay over unsuitable shorter trips, both needs 2400m+ and *BEYOND THANKFUL* in particular finally dropping down in the weights after paying for early great form. As a result, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day.
SUGGEST: *BEYOND THANKFUL* (EACH WAY) @ $23+, DANJEU (EACH WAY) @ $20+, FIRST FOUR (F / 1, 6 / F / 2, 5) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 8: Penultimate event is an open handicap over 1100m. Another tricky race, on what looks a tricky card, especially after initial glance. The three at the bottom of the weights (BADAJOZ, MACHINEGUN JUBS and UPSCALE) art the obvious main dangers and those hardest to beat, but once again, think better value lies elsewhere. Leaning towards MADOTTI at $11+ (most operators) and HIEROGLYPHICS at $16+ with CENTREBET. Both more than capable in this grade and simply look over the odds on both current and overall form. You could do worse than a FIELD leg in the quaddie as there are many here (even those at bigger prices) who are more than capable despite indifferent form recently. Not many would shock.
SUGGEST: MADOTTI (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $11+, HIEROGLYPHICS (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $16+, FIRST FOUR (F / 11, 12, 13 / F / 8, 9), (F / 8, 9 / 11, 12, 13 / 8, 9) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 9: We finish with a benchmark 72 over 1400m. Finishing with **HIGH MIST** here at $6+ (UBET) who looks very well suited to this grade after taking on much better opposition in career to date and most importantly been competitive. Gets critical 3kg claim dropping to a much more comfortable 58kg and with a touch of luck from the gate (12, but comes in with many scratchings) looks a great each way play. Happy to actually make a BEST VALUE bet of the day to finish things off. Main danger is stablemate WAYANKA and THE BULL, happy to leave things there with a narrow finish to the quaddie after going wide in the previous.
SUGGEST: **HIGH MIST** (EACH WAY) @ $6+, FIRST FOUR (3, 9 / F / 3, 9 / 2) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Average odds $11.48+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: PROMETHEUS @ $4+, HIGH MIST @ $6+
*BEST LONGSHOT*: MADAM MOUSTACHE @ $26+, BEYOND THANKFUL @ $23+