SATURDAY MAY 6, 2016
Racing at MORPHETTVILLE with the penetrometer reading 5.42, meaning we find ourselves looking at a GOOD (4) surface.
RAIL: +3M (1800M-1200), TRUE (REMAINDER). No reason to not expect a level playing field, pace dependant. As always, be sure to keep an eye on early races for best guide.
CENTREBET offering super odds once again so at the risk of sounding like a broken record, if you don't already have an account, sign up below. Have found having a BETFAIR and CENTREBET account in recent times gets you best or close to best odds in most instances:
Race 1: We start a big day’s racing at Morphettville with an open event over the mile (1600m). Tricky start, given the very open nature of this event, however think best value sits with top weight GREAT ESTEEM at $6+ with CENTREBET. 60kg the query and last run was sub-par, but willing to forgive and if you go through all starts prior, then should be hard to catch. Doesn’t look to be a heap of pace up front, so hoping we can pinch a race winning lead as they straighten. Regardless they will be flying late, hopefully we can hold them all off.
SUGGEST: GREAT ESTEEM (EACH WAY) @ $6+ (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 2: Next is another open event, this time over 2100m and this one looks relatively straight forward as long as those off the pace are getting their chance. We were keen on SECOND BULLET last time, and just missed (costing us a juicy quaddie :-( ), however think a return to the winner’s stalls will happen today. Looks to have the class edge on rivals here, so we’ll run with the ‘best horse’ rule at $3+ with BET365 and CENTREBET. Main danger KOURKAM.
SUGGEST: SECOND BULLET (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3+, FIRST FOUR (3 / 2 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 50%)
Race 3: Next is the first of the black type events, commencing with the Listed Queen Adelaide Stakes for the two year olds over 1050m. Bit of a raffle with these two year olds, with most coming into the race with some half decent form (winning or close to winning in recent times), however many different (somewhat obscure) form lines to try and line up, across both metropolitan and provincial tracks, so plenty of guesswork. As a result, will run with a could at double figure prices (somewhat speculatively) in the form of MARIA ELISA at $12+ (UBET, BET365, CENTREBET) and EXPLICITLY at $14+ (UBET, LUXBET, BET365). Throw a blanket over the rest. Tough race.
SUGGEST: MARIA ELISA (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $12+, EXPLICITLY (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $14+, FIRST FOUR (F / 3, 5 / F / 3, 5) (CONFIDENCE 25%)
Race 4: Next of the features, is the Group 3 Mckay Stakes over 1100m. Good race, with plenty of chances, with pace and how track is playing key with several key chances expected to settle back and try and come over the top of them. Going with a couple here at juicy price tags in the form of **RELDAS** at a juicy $15+ with each of LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU, BETSTAR and CENTREBET. Gets big 4kg pull in the weights compared with key chance BASSETT and given only 2.3L defeat last time, can most definitely turn the tables here and is more than three times the price. Great each way value and will actually make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Also, want something on KARACATAS at a juicy $21+ with most operators. Always seems to be nicely placed in races and despite the jump in grade, deserves his crack against the ‘bigger’ boys. Main dangers FAATINAH, BASSETT and KAEPERNICK.
SUGGEST: **RELDAS** (EACH WAY) @ $15+, KARACATAS (EACH WAY) @ $21+, FIRST FOUR (1, 2, 3 / F / 1, 2, 3 / 6, 7) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 5: First leg of the quaddie is the Group 2 Queen of the South Stakes to be run over the mile (1600m) for the fillies and mares. Good race, most runners with legitimately winning claims. Looking at a couple again at juicy prices, in the form of CONSOMMATEUR at a very tidy $10+ with SPORTSBET and UBET, in addition to MA JONES at $19+ with LUXBET and BET365. Both flying and both actually looking for hat tricks of wins after both winning their past two starts. Up in grade (but many here are) and both capable of taking up prominent positions behind the leading pack which is hopefully the place to be. Main dangers AMELIE’S STAR and ROCKET COMMANDER but runs much, much deeper. Another very good race.
SUGGEST: CONSOMMATEUR (EACH WAY) @ $10+, MA JONES (EACH WAY) @ $19+, FIRST FOUR (F / 1, 4 / F / 3, 9) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 6: And now for the first of two consecutive Group 1s, starting with the Group 1 Schweppes Oaks for the three year olds fillies to be run over 2010m. Away from Melbourne/Sydney been confident on KENEDNA in recent times with half decent odds on offer in lesser grade than this and have as expected been easy pickings. The obvious is to jump on again here (actually gets in better at the weights (2kg) than most rivals for easy win last time) but have “just” sided with some at bigger odds instead of all the eggs in one basket. HARLOW GOLD I liked in the Australasian Oaks run on a bog track, so if I liked here there, I feel inclined to stay aboard given the much better conditions, easier field and most important great price of $16+ with BET365. Also, want something on a couple of others which can be on WIN only basis’ given the spread (up to yourself), in SAVVY DREAMS at $17+ (CENTREBET) and SEBRING DREAM at $23+ with LUXBET. A lot of dreaming going on it seems, but hopefully these dreams become a reality here. Apologies, bad dad joke J. Main dangers KENEDNA (one out quaddie could be on the cards) and EGG TART.
SUGGEST: HARLOW GOLD (EACH WAY) @ $16+, SAVVY DREAMS (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $17+, SEBRING DREAM (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $23+, FIRST FOUR (2, 5 / F / 2, 5 / 1, 6, 7), FIRST FOUR (F / 2, 5 / 2, 5 / 1, 6, 7) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 7: Penultimate event is another Group 1, in the Robert Sangster for the fillies and mares over 1200m. Like one that we rated very highly from day 1 and was a longshot early play (70/1) for the Guineas, where he finished 5th from memory. The one in question is SUPER CASH who I think can defy the tricky gate here at $8+ with most operators. Simply a fast, class galloper and who knows his best might still be to come. Primary play ahead of a couple at cricket score odds in SCARLET BILLOWS @ $126+ (CENTREBET) and A LOTTA LOVE at $61+ also with CENTREBET. We haven’t seen the best of SCARLET BILLOWS for a little while with get back style always requiring luck, however is simply too good to dismiss at a price like this, in a race like this. Wasn’t that long ago when competitive in these types of races. While, *A LOTTA LOVE* I think is somewhat underrated and never seems to be too far away and no reason that isn’t the case again today. At the price, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers ENGLISH, SHIEDEL and RAVI. Super race!
SUGGEST: SUPER CASH (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $8+, *A LOTTA LOVE* (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $61+, SCARLET BILLOWS (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $126+, FIRST FOUR (1, 2, 11 / 4, 9, 13 / F / 4, 9, 13) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 8: And we finish a cracking card with the Group 2 Euclase Stakes for the three year olds, to be run over 1200m. Like **FUHRYK** here after a freshen up at $7.50+ with CENTREBET. We’ve had plenty of luck with this filly, who I rate highly and back to 1200m is her go. At the price, actually happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day to finish things off. Then, also want a secondary play on longshot *WANNENME* at $51+ with BET365. Like him back to the 1200m after a small freshen up and wasn’t that far behind (2.5L) main danger and key rival KEN’S DREAM. One is $4.20, the other is $61. I know which one I’d rather back and actually make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main danger as just mentioned KEN’S DREAM and DEFCON.
SUGGEST: **FUHRYK** (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $7.50+, *WAZZENME* (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $61+, FIRST FOUR (1, 2 / 6, 12 / F / 6, 12) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Average odds $26.22+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: RELDAS @ $15+, FUHRYK @ $7.50+
*BEST LONGSHOT*: A LOTTA LOVE @ $61+, WAZZENME @ $61+