MONDAY, JUNE 12, 2016
Racing at MORNINGTON with some light rain forecast, penetrometer 5.95, hence currently looking at a SOFT (6) surface.
RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to MORNINGTON for Queen’s Birthday racing at MORNINGTON with the rail in the TRUE position. As a result, expecting no disadvantage to be swinging out wide in the straight and coming from off the pace, away from the fence, especially as the day goes on. However, as always, be sure to keep a close eye on early races for best guide.
Race 1: We start with the two year olds over 1000m and plenty of guesswork here with majority debutantes and/or first up after breaks. Slight lean DIXIE BUILT at $4.80+ with LUXBET. Showed as much as any in recent trials, drawn ideally in barrier 7 and has had support despite not being from one of the bigger stables. Primary play ahead of FLYPAST at $19+ also with LUXBET who is a somewhat speculative play, but good odds, home track and stable having a knack of produce a surprise in these types of races in recent times. Main dangers led by BORELLA and QUICK SPIN but runs deep.
SUGGEST: DIXIE BUILT (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $4.80+, FLYPAST (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $19+, FIRST FOUR (1, 9 / 2, 6 / F / 2, 6) (CONFIDENCE 25%)
Race 2: Now for a three year old maiden over 1200m and a very open, competitive affair. Slight lean **TAI CHI SPIRIT** at $7+ with BET365. Plenty to like about debut 2nd placing and looks set to only improve here second up. Drawn ideally in barrier 7 and has the very solid combination of Melham/Waller. Should be hitting the line strong and hopefully better than the rest. At the price happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main dangers RIDGEWAY and KAFOO.
SUGGEST: **TAI CHI SPIRIT** (EACH WAY) @ $7+, FIRST FOUR (F / 3, 5 / F / 8) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 3: Next is for the fillies and mares over the mile (1600m). TESTA LIFE is short enough ($2.50+ with BET365 and LUXBET) for one without a win from 7 starts, however there is some average form to sort through here and on the bright side 7 placings from 7 starts. Happy to take the punt that the superior form prevails and simply being in front on the line isn’t the issue. Suggest a standalone play. Disappointed by the scratching of Michelle Payne’s OUR ZARIAH who was at a juicy price ($17+) but not to be. Throw a blanket over the rest.
SUGGEST: TESTA LIFE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $2.50+ (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 4: Next is a benchmark 64 for the three year old fillies over 1200m. Another very open and competitive affair with pace/tactics and how track is playing set to be key. Slight lean **BELLA AVA** at $8.50+ (most operators) who has done very little wrong in short career, including being competitive in much better races than this. Monetary support says she’s fit enough to fire first up. Slight concern the gate, but hoping Zahra can keep her out of trouble and in clear room as they straighten. Happy to make another BEST VALUE bet of the day. Also want to play SEPAREE at $23+ with BET365. Gets handy 3kg claim from Chris Caserta which gets her down below most other runners. Similarly the gate a slight query but hopefully can be ridden positively enough to get out of trouble and most importantly if rail is off, hopefully with room to come off at the right time, or ideally sit off the rail. Throw another blanket over the rest here, runs very deep.
SUGGEST: **BELLA AVA** (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $8.50+, SEPAREE (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $23+, FIRST FOUR (F / 16 / F / 2) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 5: Next is a benchmark 64 over 1000m. Very tough race, with plenty of guesswork in terms of trying to line up very similar / same benchmark (64), yet different form lines, not to mention fitness levels of some returning from breaks. There looks to be a strong speed on paper which I’m hoping sets things up for those behind the pace and for this recent have landed with a couple who should appreciate a strong tempo in CHARLIE GARCON at $8+ (BET365) and *PURPUSSFUL* at $26+ also with BET365. At the price, happy to make the latter a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers CHANNING, WHYCATCHIM and WILDE GEM, but at the risk of sounding like a broken record, doesn’t end there in a wide open affair. Very tough race.
SUGGEST: CHARLIE GARCON (EACH WAY) @ $8+, *PURPUSSFUL* (EACH WAY) @ $26+, FIRST FOUR (F / 4, 5, 6 / F / 1, 3) (CONFIDENCE 25%)
Race 6: Exact replica of the previous in terms of being a benchmark 64 over 1000m. Going with AMANAAT at $5+ (BET365) first up from a decent break. Be sure to monitor market for even better guide but has had the ultimate gear change (gelded) and did start favourite last start in a hot race at Flemington, which was panels above this grade. If switched on and simply fit enough for a forward showing should be hard to beat here. Also, want to have a play on *HUNTING HILL* first up at $21+ with most operators. Form is better than finishing positions suggest and both first up and 1000m record also better than it reads at face value. Two back was only 2.2L from Roman Fizz at Moonee Valley and last time first up beaten less than a length over this trip and soft track condition. At the price happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers GO ONE BETTER ($17+), STAR SEARCH and TIMETUS. Happy to take on HOLY SEAL who is an obvious danger but well under the odds at $3.20 with most.
SUGGEST: AMANAAT (EACH WAY) @ $5+, *HUNTING HILL* (EACH WAY) @ $21+, FIRST FOUR (1, 7, 10 / 2, 4 / F / 2, 4) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 7: Another benchmark 64, this time over the mile (1600m). Another tough race with form lines difficult to line up and seemingly little between many here. As a result, will look for some value and have landed on CORONATION TROUBLE at $11+ (UBET, BET365) and PAIGE’S BOY at $19+ with most operators. CORONATION TROUBLE brings good form for a race like this, drawn to get a lovely run and on home track. Ticks plenty of boxes. PAIGE’S BOY does need to lift more, but on home track and is proven at this level. Happy to take the punt he can improve at a juicy price. Throw a blanket over the rest, another race which runs deep.
SUGGEST: CORONATION TROUBLE (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $11+, PAIGE’S BOY (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $19+, FIRST FOUR (F / 5, 6 / F / 5, 6) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 8: Yet another benchmark 64 and the first of two consecutive benchmark 64s over 2000m. Have come out with SAVVY DRESSER on top @ $6+ with BET365. Lightly raced, has done little wrong and looks to be progressing through the grades nicely. Also, want something on TRE DIECI at a generous $16+ with UBET. Hasn’t been far away in better grade and if they turn this into a true staying test just might have the stamina and miles in the legs to be too tough late. Dropping from 2200m the concern, hence the need for pace to be on, as may be too one paced if it turns into a sit and sprint. Main dangers SPANISH LOVE (going terribly but wasn’t that long ago was a city class galloper), GINALI and SIR VAN DYKE.
SUGGEST: SAVVY DRESSER (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $6, TRE DIECI (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $16+, FIRST FOUR (4, 8, 10 / 9, 12 / F / 9, 12) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 9: Penultimate event is another benchmark 64 over 2000m. Another tough, wide open affair but have come out with one on top that looks to standout at a nice each way price. The runner in question is VIBRANCE at $8+ with BET365. Good run last time when not having an ideal run but still hit the line well enough considering. Happy to leave it there on this occasion. Main dangers JUSTICE HONOR and RETICENT.
SUGGEST: VIBRANCE (EACH WAY) @ $8+, FIRST FOUR (F / 7, 8 / F / 11) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 10: Final event is another benchmark 70 over 1200m and they’ve definitely left the best to last with a decent field assembled here. Can’t split two here so simply running with both in the form of DANE THUNDER at $9+ (BET365 and LUXBET) and MOONLOVER at $4.50+ with SPORTSBET. Both bring strong form to this in better grade and look very suited despite several decent gallopers to contest with here. Happy to simply play around the two and hope those shortest in the market miss out.
SUGGEST: DANE THUNDER (EACH WAY) @ $9+, MOONLOVER (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $4.50+, FIRST FOUR (F / 1, 9 / F / 1, 9) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Average odds $11.66+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: TAI CHI SPIRIT @ $4.20+, BELLA AVA @ $8.50+
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: PURPUSSFUL @ $26+, HUNTING HILL @ $21+