SATURDAY JUNE 17, 2016
Racing at ROSEHILL GARDENS with improving conditions in Sydney, however thepenetrometer reading 5.93, meaning we find ourselves looking at a HEAVY (8) surface.
RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We return to ROSEHILL with the rail back to the TRUE position after being out +6M two weeks back. Hoping for a fair track, pace dependant, but as always, be sure to keep an eye on early races for best guide.
Race 1: We start with the two year olds over 1350m. Expecting the Godophin duo to dominate here, hence happy to back the two of them at very different price tags. Firstly, GAULOIS at $2.50+ (UBET, BET365) on a WIN only basis. Has the best form coming in, handles the wet, can be ridden positive or negatively, so has the versatility and form to be hard to beat here. Stablemate GUIPURE debuts here and is worthy of a play on a more speculative basis at $19+ with BET365. Throw a blanket over the rest.
SUGGEST: GAULOIS (WIN - PRIMARY) @ $2.50+, GUIPURE (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $17+, FIRST FOUR (F / 2 / F / 7) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 2: Next is a benchmark 73 for the three year olds over 1400m and will keep this short and sweet with the ‘best horse’ in the race at the top of the weights in HIGH MIST at $6.25+ with SPORTSBET. Has had two good runs to have him ready to fire third up after racing in Group 1 and 3 level before long break prior. Ready to return to the winner’s stalls with Bowman aboard at this level. Unwanted in early markets, so happy to take advantage accordingly. Main dangers FARAWAY TOWN, INSENSATA and JUST DREAMING. Concede ARBEITSAM is a big chance, but unders (in my humble opinion) at $2.20 with most and happy to risk at the short price.
SUGGEST: HIGH MIST (EACH WAY) @ $6.25+, FIRST FOUR (2, 3, 10 / F / 2, 3, 10 / 1) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 3: Next is a class 3 over 1500m and as long as runners are able to come from behind away from the fence (we’ll have two races to confirm), then XAMEX should be hard to beat here at $2.50+ with most operators. Has experienced heavy support and rightly so. Happy to play on a primary WIN only basis and leave it at that. Main danger MURRMAID who has been heavily backed in early markets and has the form to win a race like this.
SUGGEST: XAMEX (WIN) @ $2.50+, FIRST FOUR (10 / F / 2 / F), (F / 2, 10 / 2, 10 / F) (CONFIDENCE 50%)
Race 4: Next is a benchmark 85 for the fillies and mares over 1200m and will keep this simply with the in-form TEST THE WORLD at $3+ with UBET. Main danger FOREIGN AFFAIR at $8.50+ making the trip north from Melbourne. Other legitimate chances, but given the small field and market, will leave things there.
SUGGEST: TEST THE WORLD (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3+, FIRST FOUR (8 / F / 6 / F) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 5: Next is a benchmark 85 over 1500m. Concede MOSS ‘N’ DALE is going to be hard to beat but has already been backed off the map and as a result, simply can’t get so enthused with the current $2.70 price with most operators. Good luck to you if you snagged the early $4+. Think this race runs deeper than many think and as a result looking at a three pronged assault at odds. Firstly, willing to give REIBY THE RED another chance at $10+ with most operators. We were on last time at a juicy price, before heavy support, had a tough run and understandably tired late. Should get a much better run in transit here from barrier 4 (had barrier 13 last time). Next is SIGNPOSTED at $18+ with CENTREBET. Proven winter performer, should be able to cross easily enough from the wide gate (13) and well suited this grade at this price. Finally, also want a longshot play on *ASHKANND* who looks a stupid price at $61+ with SPORTSBET and BET365. Distance might be a tough short, but heavy conditions levels that our somewhat and obviously has the ability and in top stable. A must play at the price and most definitely a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main danger MOSS ‘N’ DALE who does look hard to beat. A good option for daily multies and/or maybe a one out final leg to the early quaddie.
SUGGEST: REIBY THE RED (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $10+, SIGNPOSTED (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $18+, *ASHKANND* (EACH WAY) @ $61+, FIRST FOUR (2 / 3, 13, 14 / F / 3, 13, 14) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 6: First leg of the quaddie is an open event over 2000m. Good race with many chances, with pace/tactics and how track is playing key. Found it hard to split SUPPLY AND DEMAND and SO WILLIE, but at the better price, happy to give SO WILLIE another chance at $6+ with most operators. Had an interrupted run last time when seemingly bolting and with a clearer run here can go very close. Query is the pace, so the quicker they go, the better our chances. Hence, why I’m most wary of main danger SUPPLY AND DEMAND who might get a cozy run out in front and be hard to catch. Happy to play around the two.
SUGGEST: SO WILLIE (EACH WAY) @ $6+, FIRST FOUR (6 / F / F /11) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 7: Benchmark 85 over 1100m and a good even tempo on paper which should give all runners their chance. Going to keep this one short and sweep as I like **PIONEERING** here first up at $5.50+ with BET365. Good each way value, goes well fresh, Bowman aboard, Waller trained, handles the heavy going and proven at the track and distance. Ticks all the boxes and will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Throw a blanket over the rest with not much between most others.
SUGGEST: **PIONEERING** (EACH WAY) @ $5.50+ (CONFIDENCE 45%)
Race 8: Penultimate event is a benchmark 78 over 1800m. Think CARZOFF @ $2.70+ (most operators) can make it a stable running double/treble, and make it back to back wins in Australia after impressive debut at Warwick Farm when just missed. Pace/tactics set to be key with not a great deal of pace on paper, so in those instances always great to have the best in the business (Hugh Bowman) aboard to no doubt be on his toes, assess the pace throughout and ensure he doesn’t get too far back. Always, want something small on *DEVIL HAWK* at a juicy $31+ with CENTREBET and SPORTSBET. At the price, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Has the ability, there’s no doubt about it and although most likely not at peak fitness, the price is too good to let fly given the quality of this galloper. Main dangers SPRINGBOK FLYER and COLLATERAL.
SUGGEST: CARZOFF (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $2.70+, *DEVIL HAWK* (EACH WAY) @ $31+, FIRST FOUR (5, 12 / 7 / F / 4) (CONFIDENCE 45%)
Race 9: We finish with a benchmark 78 over 1350m. Tough finish, but running with Victorian visitor in **PAKAYA PRINCE** at $7+ with CENTREBET. Liked how the gelding won two back on a heavy track at Warnambool with similar conditions expected here. Stands out in what looks a moderate field. Happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Absolute raffle beyond it and hard to know where to look so I dare say a wide final leg of the quaddie. Maybe throw any market movers closer to jump time into a first four with potential for any kind of dividend.
SUGGEST: **PAKAYA PRINCE** (EACH WAY) @ $7+, FIRST FOUR (<marketmovers> / 14 / F / <marketmovers>) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Average odds $13.26+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: PIONEERING @ $5.50+, PAKAYA PRINCE @ $7+
*BEST LONGSHOT*: ASHKANND @ $61+, DEVIL HAWK @ $31+