SATURDAY JUNE 24, 2016
Racing at ROYAL RANDWICK with the penetrometer 6.03, hence currently looking at a HEAVY (8) surface.
RAIL: +7M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We return to RANDWICK with the rail out +7M where we hope for a level playing field (pace dependant) but given the wet conditions again in Sydney, be sure to keep an eye on early races for best guide.
Race 1: We start with the two year olds over 1200m. Like the Godolphin trio here and happy to go with the races brigade at double figure prices in COORG @ $14+ (UBET) and FLORID @ $12+ (UBET, LUXBET). COORG racing well enough without winning and will appreciate the extra distance, while FLORID returns after saluting before break. Main danger the stablemate in EVICT who makes debut here and has trialled well for this.
SUGGEST: COORG (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $14+, FLORID (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $12+, FIRST FOUR (roving 1, 3, 6 / F) (CONFIDENCE 25%)
Race 2: Next is a benchmark 77 for the three year olds over 1200m. Think this is more open than the market suggests and as a result another two pronged play here at double figure prices. The two in question are PEACEFUL SEA @ $15+ (most operators) and also JEANNEAU @ $20+ with UNIBET. Both in decent form for a race like this, both get in nicely at the weights and importantly both handle softer going. Main danger GHOSTLY.
SUGGEST: PEACEFUL SEA (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $15+, JEANNEAU (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $20+, FIRST FOUR (3 / 6, 11 / F / 6, 11) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 3: Next is a benchmark 81 for the fillies and mares over 1400m. Don’t love the fact HEAVENLY ANNA has 61kg (interestingly they haven’t claimed), however the more I look, the more I keep ending up in her camp at $3.30+ with CROWNBET and LUXBET. Tricky little race so happy to leave things there with very little between most others.
SUGGEST: HEAVENLY ANNA (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.30+ (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 4: Class 3 Highway Handicap over 1200m. Very disappointed by the scratching of NICTOCK who looked extremely hard to beat here, so that completely changes the complexion of this race. Like the value on offer for RUNWAY READY @ $15+ with CENTREBET. Good win last time, two wins from past four, can make the step up in grade and give a great site. Also, a play on BARRICADE at $5.50+ with most operators, looks to have the right form for a race like this and although I thought couldn’t beat NICTOCK, now right in this following the key scratching. Main danger CONNIVING.
SUGGEST: RUNWAY READY (EACH WAY) @ $15+, BARRICADE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $5.50+, FIRST FOUR (5 / 4, 13 / F / 4, 13) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 5: Now for a benchmark 85 over 2400m. Several chance, but **NORTHERN JOURNEY** jumps out as the value at $10+ on offer with BET365. Will relish the conditions, stable going well (even when heading north) and looks well suited after hitting the long strong last time despite never being a winning chance. At the nice price, happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main dangers COLLATERAL, RICHARD OF YORKE and DANJEU.
SUGGEST: **NORTHERN JOURNEY** (EACH WAY) @ $10+, FIRST FOUR (1, 2, 4 / F / 1, 2, 4 / 5) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 6: First leg of the main quaddie is an open event over the mile (1600m). Going to play a couple from the Waller stable, but interestingly the two that are biggest prices in the market. Firstly, MARENOSTRO @ $9+ (CENTREBET) who hasn’t won for a little while, but loves these conditions and has had some time away from the track to prepare for a race like this, importantly also goes well fresh. Secondly, stablemate *LOOPHOLE* @ $61+ (CENTREBET) who went well enough first up, also loves these conditions and can improve as required to be much closer to the finish this time. Crazy overs at 60/1 and more than happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers BERRY DELICIOUS, SULTAN OF SWING and LIAPARI.
SUGGEST: MARENOSTRO (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $9+, *LOOPHOLE* (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $61+, FIRST FOUR (6, 7, 9 / 2, 8 / F / 2, 8), (6, 7, 9 / F / 6, 7, 9 / 2, 8) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 7: Next is another open event, this time over 1200m. Interesting race as there are several who I rate, hence more than capable at this level, but many of which are simply out of form. Think the market is spot on here (unfortunately) hence no major value in my opinion. Have landed on TESSERA @ $2.60+ (most operators) ahead of main danger KUDERO who has been good to dungeon followers over the journey at much bigger prices than this. Note, no third dividend.
SUGGEST: TESSERA (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $2.60+, FIRST FOUR (F / 5 / 9 / F), (5 / F / 9 / F) (CONFIDENCE 45%)
Race 8: Penultimate event is a benchmark 78 over 1400m. Looking at the Warwick Farm form from June 12 here with several taking on each other once again. **LEVEL EIGHT** @ $4.80+ (CROWNBET) is simply the one brilliantly weighted here, especially after the additional 1.5kg claim from Adkins brining the gelding down to a featherweight of 52.5kg. Was already well weighted for narrow defeat before the claim and interestingly both PELETHRONIUS and *METALLIC CROWN* have elected not to claim. Hard to beat and happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Regardless of the weight situation, do want a secondary play on *METALLIC CROWN* at a juicy $17+ price with PALMERBET, BET365 and CENTREBET. Should improve further third up from a spell and should get a gun run from the gate. At the price, happy to include as a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers IMPERATOR AUGUSTUS, WILD ‘N’ FAMOUS and CLEAR THE BEACH. Good race.
SUGGEST: **LEVEL EIGHT** (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $4.80+, *METALLIC CROWN* (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $17+, FIRST FOUR (2, 7, 14 / 8, 10 / F / 8, 10) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 9: Final event is another benchmark 78, this time over 1000m and there looks to be decent speed on paper, hence pace/tactics and how track is playing set to be key. Looking at a couple here that can hopefully finish over the top of them in ROSE OF MAN @ $13+ (CENTREBET) and AGENT D’OR at $7.50+ with LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU and BETSTAR. Both should appreciate any strong tempo up front and given we’ll have the luxury of eight races prior, can identify if peeling out very wide is the place to be or not. Both should have minimal concerns with the track. Throw a blanket over the rest in a very tough finish to the card. Maybe throw any notable market movers into win in a first four with our selections to run 2nd and 4th.
SUGGEST: ROSE OF MAN (EACH WAY) @ $13+, AGENT D’OR (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $7.50+, FIRST FOUR (<market movers> / 14, 15 / F / 14, 15) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Average odds $13.98+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: NORTHERN JOURNEY @ $10+, LEVEL EIGHT @ $4.80+
*BEST LONGSHOT*: LOOPHOLE @ $61+, METALLIC CROWN @ $17+