SATURDAY, JUNE 3, 2016
We return to racing at MOONEE VALLEY after a decent break with the penetrometer reading 4.67, so currently looking at a GOOD (4) surface.
RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to MOONEE VALLEY after a decent break where they’ll have 2 meetings, before another breather in readiness for the long Spring and then Summer season. Walked the track this morning and despite the GOOD (4) rating wouldn’t expect any records to be broken and actually expect them to get their toe into the ground which should ensure a comfortable surface for all. No major disadvantage, however think the ‘better going’ is 3-4 wide and have based the summary on that accordingly.
Anticipated 'best spot' illustrated below as well as post walk summary, apologies for the bad lighting but it was a very early start this morning:
Race 1: We start with the two year olds over 1200m and going to keep this simply with the Hayes/Dabernig 2YO in **WANTED DIVA** at a tidy $5.50+ with BET365 which looks a great price. Track spies are saying the filly has trained on and is working well and that’s good enough to tell me she can be winning this after winning last start at Cranbourne at only her second outing. Williams to ride, a proven trackwalker, so should be able to get her to the right spot which as stated above is probably a few off the fence and hopefully finish over the top of them. At the price, happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day to start with. Main danger WIRED. Several debutantes so be sure to keep an eye on the market also.
SUGGEST: **WANTED DIVA** (EACH WAY) @ $5.50+, FIRST FOUR (1 / 3 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 2: Another 1200m event, this time for the mares and this is a good little race with decent form lines leading in. Pace/tactics set to be key here with no major pace on paper with SALLANCHES expected to lead. Actually hoping MAJESTIC LASS sits at least one off the fence just behind the leader and if so, think can give a good kick as they turn and hopefully pinch a race winning lead from key rivals who will be hitting the line. Same combo as race 1, hence hoping for a very early Hayes/Dabernig/Williams double and once again important that Williams is a proven track walker, hence hopefully preventing him from coming across and settling too close to the rail which I don’t believe is the ideal place to be as mentioned above. $8+ with UBET and BET365 looks great each way value. Main dangers WHISTLE BABY (flying but needs a win to get monkey off the back), GREY STREET and SWISS KISS, but race doesn’t end there and does run deep.
SUGGEST: MAJESTIC LASS (EACH WAY) @ $8+, FIRST FOUR (1, 5, 7 / F / 1, 5, 7 / 6) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 3: Next is a benchmark 78 over 1000m with pace/tactics and how track is playing set to be key again. Like a couple here at juicy double figure prices in the form of *DANCE WITH FONTEIN* at $18+ (CENTREBET) and AUNTY MO at $21+ with BET365 and CENTREBET. Expecting MISS VISTA to bowl along as usual, and CORE BEACH will be there also, ensuring a strong gallop. As much as some would assume that could set things up for backmarkers, many fall into the trap of simply leave too much to make up within a short distance, given this is only 1000m. As a result, gone with the two above to hopefully be close enough, but hopefully the right sit to reel in the leader who already has a cult following given her striking looks. Lean to *DANCE OF FONTEIN* and as a result will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers ABILITY, MISS VISTA and EL SICARIO.
SUGGEST: *DANCE WITH FONTEIN* (EACH WAY) @ $18+, AUNTY MO (EACH WAY) @ $21+, FIRST FOUR (F / 7, 9, 11 / F / 3, 6) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 4: Now for the three year olds over the mile (1600m) and want to start with a primary WIN only play on THE PASSAGE at $3.40+ with UBET and CROWNBET. Looks perfectly placed here and should get a good run in transit to finish over the top of them. Then, want a secondary play on JAWS OF STEEL at a juicy $16+ with CENTREBET. Got a much needed win last time and sometimes that is all that is needed to inject the right level of confidence to start being in the thick of things on a more regular basis. Has always shown ability.
SUGGEST: THE PASSAGE (WIN - PRIMARY) @ $3.40+, JAWS OF STEEL (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $16+, FIRST FOUR (F / 4 / F / 2) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 5: Next is a benchmark 84 over the mile (1600m) and looking to play COLDSTONE here at $4.80+ with CENTREBET. Looks very well suited this class after being not far behind the above average Plein Ciel last time, with the slight query being the weight. 60.5kg comes down to 59kg after the claim and you don’t lose anything with Beau Mertens aboard, however 59kg is also more than has been carrying in recent times. And importantly most runners are in similar boats here with similar weights. Main dangers NEW GRADUATE, HERE TO THERE and MR INDIVIDUAL which is actually in line with the market.
SUGGEST: COLDSTONE (EACH WAY) @ $4.80+, FIRST FOUR (6, 8, 11 / F / 6, 8, 11 / 4) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 6: First leg of the main quaddie is a benchmark 84 for the fillies and mares over 1500m. Tricky and wide open affair, arguably the hardest of the day for mine. Looking to play a couple at nice prices and looking to take on those shortest in the market. First is LOPARTEGA at $12+ (CENTREBET) again for Williams, the other is TRINITY HILL at $9.50+ also with CENTREBET. LOPARTEGA racing well didn’t disgrace over in Adelaide in Group 2 grade. TRINITY HILL is a consistent galloper and simply looks ready to return to the winner’s stalls very soon, hopefully today. Main dangers HAVE ANOTHER GLASS and FOUR SISTERS but doesn’t necessarily end there.
SUGGEST: LOPARTEGA (EACH WAY) @ $12+, TRINITY HILL (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $9.50+, FIRST FOUR (F / 2, 14 / F / 4, 11) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 7: Benchmark 84 over 1200m and found it hard to decide between two here in CHAMOIS ROAD and CAMDUS here, but have ended up with a very slight lean for CHAMOIS ROAD simply due to the better price on offer at $8.50+ with BET365. As consistent as they come, having placed at 16 of 19 starts and won 6 of them, which is a record anyone would be proud of. There doesn’t look to be a great deal of pace on paper, so a spot just behind the leader one off the fence could ensure a great sight hopefully all the way until/and over the line. Also, want something on longshot *LE BONSIR* who is a must play at $51+ in this grade. Best is probably behind him, but 50/1 for one who has been very competitive in much better races makes the 9YO gelding a simple, smaller, secondary betting proposition. At the price, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main danger CAMDUS, ahead of HEZA RIPPER and CHASE THE HORIZON.
SUGGEST: CHAMOIS ROAD (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $8.50+, *LE BONSIR* (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $51+, FIRST FOUR (6 / 1, 3, 4, 7 / F / 1, 3, 4, 7), (3, 4, 6 / 1, 7 / F / 1, 7) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 8: Penultimate event is the Essendon Nissan Handicap to be run over 2040m. Good race, but again I think this is far more wide open than what the market suggests. At first glance, I thought I’d be playing GALLIC CHIEFTAIN who at face value looks to have a class gap on most, however the more I looked, the more I through I’d rather play a couple of others at juicy prices instead given the competitive nature of the race. The two in question are TICK TICK BLOOM at $17+ with CENTREBET and SHOREHAM at $21+ with SPORTSBET. Both capable on their day, both look to be in good form for a race like this and although both probably need to pull out an improved run, and their respective prices, happy to take the punt they can. As many may have realised I am loving the Western Australians coming across and joining the strong eastern seaboard stables (Weir, Hayes, etc), with most running extremely well. Main dangers GALLIC CHIEFTAIN (as mentioned), OVERBERG and HURSLEY. Again, doesn’t end there in another deep race.
SUGGEST: TICK TICK BLOOM (EACH WAY) @ $17+, SHOREHAM (EACH WAY) @ $21+, FIRST FOUR (9, 12, 15 / 8, 11 / F / 8, 11), (F / 9, 12, 15 / 9, 12, 15 / 8, 11) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
RACE 9: Final event is for the three year olds over 1200m and looking to play a couple here also in the form of **HIGHLAND BEAT** at a tidy each way price of $9+ with LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU and BETSTAR and KATSURO at $5.50+ with UBET. Means looking to bookmark the day with Hayes/Dabernig/Williams with HIGHLAND BEAT but as long as backmarkers are getting their chance, should be steaming home. At the price, happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. KATSURO has been running very without winning this prep, however this looks arguably easier on paper and as a result in this up to his eyeballs. Main dangers MYSTIFIED, RUN GYPSY RUN and BENZ.
SUGGEST: **HIGHLAND BEAT** (EACH WAY) @ $9+, KATSURO (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $5.50+, FIRST FOUR (2, 4, 5 / 3, 11 / F / 3, 11) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Average odds a juicy $14.01+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: WANTED DIVA @ $5.50+, HIGHLAND BEAT @ $9.50+
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: DANCE WITH FONTEIN @ $18+, LE BONSIR @ $51+