SATURDAY JUNE 3, 2016
Racing at ROSEHILL GARDENS with fine conditions in Sydney. Penetrometer reading 4.49, meaning we find ourselves looking at a GOOD (3) surface.
RAIL: +6M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We return to ROSEHILL with the rail out +6M after being in the TRUE position two weeks back. Expecting no major disadvantage on pace, closer to the fence, but hopefully level across the board, pace dependant. As always, be sure to keep an eye on early races for best guide.
Race 1: We start with the two year olds over 1200m. Pace/tactics set to be key here, with limited experience to work with, however on paper there looks to be many who like to either leader or settle right on the pace. As a result, expecting a strong pace, hence might be suited for one who sits behind the strong tempo and finishes over the top. As a result, have landed on INTRINSIC at $4.20+ with LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU and BETSTAR. Will probably need a touch of luck as will most likely be boxed in behind the tempo, but as they start tiring, hopefully the gap appears and we go wooshka.
SUGGEST: INTRINSIC (EACH WAY) @ $4.20+ (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 2: Next is a benchmark 78 over the same 1200m distance and looking to play a couple here who will hopefully be right ‘on the bunny’ making their own luck in front and hopefully be hard to catch. The first is *JEANNEAU* at a very juicy $23+ with SPORTSBET. Won on debut for new stable last time and previous preps was racing in strong class including listed events in Melbourne over the Spring. At the price happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Also, want something on likely leader ARBEITSAM at $6.50+ with CROWNBET and BET365. Be sure to monitor market due to being first up after 140 day spell so obviously fitness levels need to be at the right level to fire. Main danger NEW UNIVERSE.
SUGGEST: *JEANNEAU* (EACH WAY) @ $23+, ARBEITSAM (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $6.50+, FIRST FOUR (F / 1, 6, 7 / F / 1, 6, 7), (roving 1, 6, 7 / F) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 3: Next is another benchmark 78, this time for the mares over 1500m. Hard to go past DAGNY here at $2.60+ (LUXBET) despite the big 61kg weight. Meets several rivals here again and on face value doesn’t look to have the appropriate weight swing to turn the tables. Should get the ideal run from barrier 4 and simply shouldn’t have any excuses. Suggest on a primary WIN only basis, as well as a secondary play on REIBY RAMPART at $11+ with BET365. Another set to be making own luck up front and with not a great deal of pace on paper, could be hard to catch, especially if track is playing that way. Main danger LABDIEN and WAHNG WAH.
SUGGEST: DAGNY (WIN - PRIMARY) @ $2.60+, REIBY RAMPART (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $11+, FIRST FOUR (3, 5 / 1, 6 / F / 1, 6) (CONFIDENCE 45%)
Race 4: Class 2 Highway Handicap over 1400m and this is close to a raffle. Very tricky, with pace/tactics and simply luck in running key. Half the battle is trying to work out the speed map and work out who will have a better run in transit. After a lot of to and froing have landed on MISTER MARMALADE at $6.50+ with LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU and BETSTAR. Should get a great run in transit and form more than good enough to win this. Throw a blanket over the rest.
SUGGEST: MISTER MARMALADE (EACH WAY) @ $6.50+, FIRST FOUR (F / F / 1, 2, 3, 6 / 5) (CONFIDENCE 25%)
Race 5: Now for a benchmark 70 over 1500m. Another tricky race with pace/tactics and how track is playing key. Think best value lies with WALK THE STREETS at $8.50+ (BET365) and VOLPE at $9.50+ with LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU and BETSTAR. WALK THE STREETs just needs some luck from the wide gate and should she get it, should be right in the thick of things here. Looks a filly precocious filly on the up. VOLPE has been too good for rivals at last couple and deserves crack at them in town and gets in with a featherweight of 52kg. Main danger JUST DREAMING who should get a great run from the good gate (3) and be right there also. Just went with the other two given the better prices/value on offer, and WAYANKA who can improve.
SUGGEST: WALK THE STREETS (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $8.50+, VOLPE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $9.50+, FIRST FOUR (2, 7 / 11, 13 / F / 11, 13) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 6: First leg of the quaddie is a benchmark 85 over 1200m. Like **GIRL SUNDAY** here at $6+ with most operators who looks to get conditions to suit here as long as she’s no needing a little further now. It’s the slight query, but ticks all other boxes here, hence happy to take the punt at a nice each way price, especially given recent form. At the price, happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day, looks a great each way play.Then, also want something on an old favourite who won for us at 40/1+ not that long ago and always seems to be underrated and over the odds. The runner in question is ISORICH at $18+ with most operators, but hopefully more come race time as they come for the bigger and better known trainers. Actually beat home key rival FIRSTHAND last start and we still get three times the price and even better at the weights after the claim. Simply math, despite conceding FIRSTHAND does have claims regardless, just not the right value. Main dangers REINCARNATE, WILD ’N’ FAMOUS and DREAM LANE.
SUGGEST: **GIRL SUNDAY** (EACH WAY) @ $6+, ISORICH (EACH WAY) @ $18+, FIRST FOUR (3, 6, 10 / 8, 9 / F / 8, 9) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 7: Now for the open Eremein Handicap to be run over 1800m. SO WILLIE saluted for us last time in ultra-impressive style and don’t see any reason to jump off here at $3.60+, especially with a much better draw than has been the case in recent times. Happy with a primary play there, in addition to a smaller secondary play on longshot *IGGY POP* at $51+ with UBET. Happy to forgive first up disappointing run (on a track when many struggled and ran poorly) and can improve at a huge price second up. At the price, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers MONTAUK and SUPPLY AND DEMAND but doesn’t end there.
SUGGEST: SO WILLIE (WIN / EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $3.60+, *IGGY POP* (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $51+, FIRST FOUR (F / 6, 9, 11 / 10 / 6, 9, 11), (F / 10 / 6, 9, 11 / 6, 9, 11) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 8: Penultimate event is the open Octagonal Handicap to be run over 1400m. Found it hard to split the two on top here, but ended up ever so slightly in the camp of SNOOPY at the slightly better odds of $5+ (BET365) as opposed to key rival and main danger INVINZABEELat $4.50+. Would actually recommend a saving multi or similar on INVINZABEEL as I do think the gelding is hard to beat here, but we can’t back them all, especially at the same price. SNOOPY seemed to finally find feet last prep and can hopefully go on with that form this prep. Also, want a secondary play on TSARITSA who is officially on her last chance at a tidy $16+ with most operators. Just can’t get out of my head that she is a Group 2 winner (and not that long ago, ~ 1 year) and keeps running “well enough” with excuses, but you need to be firm when they aren’t winning and should she fail tomorrow, then that could be a personal ban. Main danger INVINZABEEL as mentioned.
SUGGEST: SNOOPY (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $5+, TSARITSA (EACH WAY) @ $16+, FIRST FOUR (9 / 6, 12 / F / 6, 12) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 9: We finish with a benchmark 85 over 1500m and keen on **DREAMFORCE** here at $4.60+ with UBET, CROWNBET and BET365. Gets in with a featherweight of 51.5kg after 3kg claim and confidence only increases if leaders/on pacers/those near the rail are favoured throughout the day. Looks extremely well suited here (many of these looking for longer, later) and should simply be hard to beat. Will simply leave it there and finish with a BEST VALUE bet of the day.
SUGGEST: **DREAMFORCE** (EACH WAY) @ $4.60+ (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Average odds $11.73+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: GIRL SUNDAY @ $6+, DREAMFORCE @ $4.60+
*BEST LONGSHOT*: JEANNEAU @ $23+, IGGY POP @ $51+