SATURDAY, JULY 1, 2016
Racing at CAULFIELD with fine weather forecast after rain Thursday, currently a SOFT (5) surface, however expecting a GOOD (4) come race time with fine weather forecast.
RAIL: +7M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to CAULFIELD with the rail out +7M. Hoping for even track where all runners get their chance (pace dependant), but as always, be sure to keep a close eye on early races for best guide.
Race 1: We start with the two year olds over 1200m and with the rail out +7m there is the chance that leaders might be advantaged for at least a race or two and if that’s the case, then RIVER JEWEL looks big overs at $13+ with CROWNBET, TOP BETTA and BET365. Steps back to town, but good win last time and has the white-hot Beau Mertens aboard. Then want something on OLYMPIC LAD at $12+ with BET365, with premiership rival Craig William aboard. Hit the line very well late last time after being unlucky and can be ridden much more positively here from the good gate (2). Main dangers NISTAAN and LONE EAGLE.
SUGGEST: RIVER JEWEL (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $13+, OLYMPIC LAD (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $12+, FIRST FOUR (2, 3 / 6, 11 / F / 6, 11) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 2: Event for the three year olds over 2000m. Tricky race, despite what market suggests (two very short in the market in KIWIA and ROYAL ORDER), but actually happy to take them on and instead play a couple at nice prices in the form of WINDBERN @ $16+ (LUXBET) and OUTBACK RAIN at a juicy $34+ with BET365. Both similarly expected to be up on the pace on what should be a moderate (at best) tempo and with any advantage to those closer to the pace early, both more than capable of running cheeky races at odds. WINDBERN was not on the right part of the track last time when now far away behind key rivals here (two faves mentioned) and does get weight swing on the winner in ROYAL ORDER. Disappointed by the scratching of OUTBACK RAIN who I gave a legitimate chance at $34+, but not to be. Can improve and go close at a big price. Main dangers the obvious in KIWIA and ROYAL ORDER.
SUGGEST: WINDBERN (EACH WAY) @ $16+, FIRST FOUR (F / 2, 4 / 2, 4, 7, 10 / 7, 10) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 3: Benchmark 78 over the mile (1600m) and an even, competitive affair. Slight lean with Willo once again, this time with COSMIC LIGHTS at $5.50+ (most operators). Racing consistently without winning, but can go very close here from a good gate and ridden a touch closer than has been in recent times when not far away. Also want something on one at juicy odds in the form of *DON’T GET EXCITED* at $31+ with most operators. Can cross from the wide gate and lead, and if they let the seven year old gelding dictate then could pinch a race-winning break. Has been racing away from the city, but the races themselves have been city grade quality. At the price, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers COLDSTONE and CURRAGH, but doesn’t end there.
SUGGEST: COSMIC LIGHTS (EACH WAY) @ $5.50+, *DON’T GET EXCITED* (EACH WAY) @ $31+, FIRST FOUR (F / 1, 2 / 1, 2, 5, 9 / 5, 9) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 4: Now for the three year old fillies over 1100m and our filly IF NOT NOW WHEN returns after running 3rd at the Valley two weeks back. Tough race, with pace/tactics and how track is playing crucial, especially with the rail out +7m. There looks to be solid pace up front and that’s what we will be wanted for out filly. It’s an extremely tough and even encounter and at this stage nothing jumping out as a betting proposition.
SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%)
Race 5: Next is a benchmark 90 for the mares over 1200m. Tough, even race as illustrated by the market with $6+ the field and nice runners between $6+ - $14. Running with two here in the form of **A LOTTA LOVE** at $6+ (most operators), slightly ahead of FOREIGN AFFAIR at $12+ with UBET. I think **A LOTTA LOVE** is the class in the race down in grade here fresh and might just be too good for all here, while FOREIGN AFFAIR just missed in good race in Sydney last time and would only need to run similarly here to go close. Happy to make the class galloper **A LOTTA LOVE** a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main dangers WHISTLE BABY (they’re obviously looking to go out on a winning note) and GREY STREET, but doesn’t end there and not many at all without legitimate winning claims here.
SUGGEST: **A LOTTA LOVE** (EACH WAY) @ $6+, FOREIGN AFFAIR (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $12+, FIRST FOUR (1, 4 / 2, 10 / F / 2, 10) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 6: Now for the three year olds over 1400m and a damn tough race to boot. Looking at a two pronged play here with *YU LONG SHENG HUI* at a juicy $18+ (BET365) and REVOLVING DOOR at $5.50+ with most operators. *YU LONG SHENG HUI* drawn to get lovely run and gets good weight swing on rivals for narrow defeat, especially those shortest in the market. At the price happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. REVOLVING DOOR was good fresh after the ultimate gear change (gelded) and with confidence associated with a win, can go on with it here. Main dangers CANNOT BE SERIOUS and NIKITAS, but race runs deep and doesn’t end there.
SUGGEST: *YU LONG SHENG HUI* (EACH WAY) @ $18+, REVOLVING DOOR (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $5.50+, FIRST FOUR (2, 6 / 1, 2, 4, 6 / F / 1, 4) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 7: Next is a benchmark 84 over 1400m. Another competitive race and again looking to play a couple of nice prices in the form of FLORAL FEVER at $9+ (most operators) and DEL PRADO at $13+ also with most operators. Both need some luck from wide gates, but this doesn’t look overly strong and both more than capable at this level. FLORAL FEVER is going as well as ever and if Williams can find a spot with cover will be right there when the whips are cracking, while DEL PRADO finally looks to be recapturing form of not so long ago when competitive and winning better races than this. Main dangers DATA POINT and HONOROUS,
SUGGEST: FLORAL FEVER (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $9+, DEL PRADO (EACH WAY) @ $13+, FIRST FOUR (3, 13 / 2, 10 / F / 2, 10) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 8: Penultimate event another benchmark 84, this time run over 1200m. Similar theme, with another wide open market and as a result playing a couple again in the form of **ZARA BAY** at $7+ (LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU and BETSTAR), in addition to JUDGES at a juicy $26+ with most operators. We were aboard ZARA BAY last time when didn’t have a great deal of luck and can improve further over the 1200m at Caulfield. Happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day at nice each way odds. JUDGES I’ve always found to be somewhat underrated and gets in very well at the weights here. Was not far away last time in a decent field despite being at Swan Hill. Main dangers ACT OF VALOUR, LEODORO and PORTMAN.
SUGGEST: **ZARA BAY** (EACH WAY) @ $7, JUDGES (EACH WAY) @ $26+, FIRST FOUR (5, 8, 9 / 7, 10 / F / 7, 10) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 9: We finish with an open event over 1800m and another very evenly match race (we seem to be finding a lot of these in the Melbourne off season in particular). Happy to play MAGIC CONSUL once again at $5+ (most operators) after just missing for us last time by a nostril at Moonee Valley. Racing very well in this grade, drawn to get a nice run and has Williams aboard to provide the appropriate navigation. Also want something on the old favourite JACQUINOT BAY at a juicy $18+ with BET365. Is going better than recent form suggests, draws a decent barrier after several stinkers of late and important gets to 1800m which I think will suit. Main dangers ONPICALO, BELUGA BLUE and OVERBERG.
SUGGEST: MAGIC CONSUL (EACH WAY) @ $5+, JACQUINOT BAY (EACH WAY) @ $18+, FIRST FOUR (2, 12, 15 / 3, 5 / F / 3, 5) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Average odds $13.13+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: A LOTTA LOVE @ $6+, ZARA BAY @ $7+
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: DON’T GET EXCITED @ $31+, YU LONG SHENG HUI @ $18+,