FRIDAY, JULY 22, 2016
Racing at FLEMINGTON and with relatively fine weather forecast, currently looking at a GOOD (4) surface.
RAIL: +3M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to FLEMINGTON with the rail out +3M. Hoping for an even track, pace dependant, but Flemington in particular has been hard to read of late and as a result a little wary. Be sure to keep a close eye on the track and how it’s playing in the early races for best guide, especially given recent uncertainty over how the track will play.
Race 1: We start with a benchmark 78 over the mile (1600m) and looking at the one who looks the ‘best horse’ in a moderate race, in the form of the one making his Aussie debut in EBEDIYIN at $3.40+ with most operators. Trialled well enough to say ready to show something first up and I’d be guessing has bigger fish to fry down the track but only if he can defeat this lot. Main danger GERVAIS.
SUGGEST: EBEDIYIN (EACH WAY) @ $3.40+, FIRST FOUR (5 / F / F / 2) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 2: Next is a benchmark 84 for the fillies and mares also over the mile (1600m). Good, competitive race, slight lean HELL OR HIGHWATER at $5+ (SPORTSBET, BET365) who should be able to cross from the wide gate (7 of 7) and assuming that occurs should be hard to catch. Main dangers DIAPASON and SEA THE SPARKLE. No third dividend.
SUGGEST: HELL OR HIGHWATER (EACH WAY) @ $5+, FIRST FOUR (5, 6 / F / 5, 6 / 1) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 3: Next is an event for the two year olds over 1800m. Good, little race with plenty of chances and actually looking to go with another ‘couple of’ Hayes runners here in the form of ST VADUZ at $7+ (UBET) and also expecting improvement with stablemate JUSTICE FAITH at $21+ with BET365 and UBET. Both look set to appreciate the longer trip and bigger track. Main dangers ANCHOR BID and THINK DIAMONDS.
SUGGEST: ST VADUZ (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $7+, JUSTICE FAITH (EACH WAY) @ $21+, FIRST FOUR (4, 7 / 2, 3 / F / 2, 3) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 4: Benchmark 84 over 1400m and simply can’t go past PORTMAN here at $2.80+ with BET365. Thinking another case of the ‘best horse’ rule and simply looks very well suited here. Suggest a primary play on a WIN only basis. Also, want a secondary play on DON’T GET EXCITED at a tidy $15+ (most operators) who just missed at $26+ for us last time when leading until the shadows of the post, and might get a soft run up front here. Any advantage to those on pace / close to the fence only enhances chances.
SUGGEST: PORTMAN (WIN) @ $2.80+, DON’T GET EXCITED (EACH WAY) @ $15+, FIRST FOUR (F / 8 / F / 9) (CONFIDENCE 50%)
Race 5: Next is an open handicap for the three year olds, once again over the mile (1600m). Tough race, wide open and pace/tactics key here with not necessarily a great deal of pace on paper. Slight lean LOVANI at $4.50+ (SPORTSBET) who could get away with a soft lead and if so will be hard to catch. Given I want to play three, happy with a primary WIN only play here despite each way price. Also, like the odds on offer for ST FRANCO at a tidy $12+ (BET365) who can be ridden more positively from the better gate here, and then finally want something on longshot *FUSE* at a big $61+ with BET365. At the price, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. All going well enough at varying levels and happy to stagger bets accordingly. Main dangers as the market suggests RUBY SEA and BALCAZAR.
SUGGEST: LOVANI (WIN - PRIMARY) @ $4.50+, ST FRANCO (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $12+, *FUSE* (EACH WAY) @ $61+, FIRST FOUR (7, 11 / 6 / F / 10, 12) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 6: First leg of the main quaddie sees a benchmark 90 event down the straight over 1200m. Sticking with RUETTIGER here at $5.50+ with most operators. Drops in grade (No Ability here) and should be at peak fitness and condition to notch first win for new stable. Primary each way play, ahead of secondary play on MIGHTY LIKE at a tidy $17+ with BET365. We’ve had a bit of luck in identifying the right time to jump on this galloper and hopefully we can do it again here at a price. Was not far behind that same runner Ability last time and has since been freshened up for this. Main dangers ROUGH JUSTICE and DIVINE MR ARTIE.
SUGGEST: RUETTIGER (EACH WAY – PRIMARY) @ $5.50+, MIGHTY LIKE (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $17+, FIRST FOUR (3, 8 / 1, 2 / F / 1, 2) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 7: Next leg is an open event over 2000m and like **EXTRA ZERO** once again here at a juicy $9.50+ with LUXBET. We keep getting big overs for what I can only assume is the age, but this guys is flying. Last time we were keen at a juicy $12 and ended up getting back into $3.50 before running 2nd. Here gets vital 2kg swing to turn tables on PACODALI, and again happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. But the danger I’m most wary about is KILIMANJARO @ $3.40+ (most operators) and enough to have a saving WIN only play in that corner also. Main dangers PACODALI, VICTORY DOWNS, KILLARNEY KID and MAGIC CONSUL.
SUGGEST: **EXTRA ZERO** (EACH WAY) @ $9.50+, KILIMANJARO (WIN) @ $3.40+, FIRST FOUR (1, 5, 6, 8 / 2, 4 / F / 2, 4) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 8: Penultimate event is for the three year old fillies over 1400m. Hard race. I think INVICTUM DOMINA @ $9+ (BET365) can get a much better run in transit and as a result be much closer on the line. Was entitled to tire late after tough run on a strong pace last time and the 1400m shouldn’t pose too many issues. Drawn better and also gets some very good weight relief against rivals from that same event, including strong favourite MOONLITE’S CHOICE. Then, also want something on one at a bigger price in the form of *VAINGLORIOUS* at a juicy $26+ with most operators. Has showed enough in short career to date to be competitive here, despite the jump in class. At the price, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main danger PRINCESS OF QUEENS but doesn’t end there.
SUGGEST: INVICTUM DOMINA (EACH WAY – PRIMARY) @ $9+, *VAINGLORIOUS* (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $26+, FIRST FOUR (roving 2, 4, 16 / F), (4 / F / F / 2, 16) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 9: Final event is for the three year olds down the straight over 1100m. **HAY BALE** is weighted to win here at a very generous $9+ with most operators. Finished on the heels of key rival HIGHLAND BEAT and gets big weight swing to turn the tables here. Looks good overs and as a result will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day to finish things off. Similarly, I’M TELLING YA for the exact same reasons, from the same race, at a generous $17+ also with most operators. Main dangers KNOWABLE, MISTY GIRL and TAHI.
SUGGEST: **HAY BALE** (EACH WAY) @ $9+, I’M TELLING YA (EACH WAY) @ $17+, FIRST FOUR (4, 10, 11 / 7, 14 / F / 7, 14), (F / 4, 10, 11 / 7, 14 / 7, 14) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Average odds a juicy $13.42+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: EXTRA ZERO @ $9.50+, HAY BALE @ $9+
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: VAINGLORIOUS @ $26+, FUSE @ $61+