SATURDAY JULY 29, 2017
Racing at ROSEHILL GARDENS with improved conditions and the penetrometer reading 4.53, meaning we find ourselves looking at a GOOD (4) surface.
RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We return to ROSEHILL with the rail back to the TRUE position, after being out +6.5M two weeks back. Hoping for a fair track, pace dependant, but as always, be sure to keep an eye on early races for best guide.
Race 1: We start with the two year olds over 1500m and although I concede D’ARGENTO looks hard to beat, can’t get excited about the skinny $2 and even less with most operators. Instead think better value lies with ALMIGHTY at a tidy $11+ CROWNBET, PALMERBET, LUXBET and BET365. We missed at Newcastle with him but was wide without cover and actually did okay to stick on for second. No easier here but an expensive colt who has obvious ability and can improve to go close here. Remember I tipped at $4.40 and ended up $1.65!!! so there was plenty of stable support before having a total forgive run. Main danger the obvious in D’ARGENTO, ahead of HOSTWIN MERAKI.
SUGGEST: ALMIGHTY (EACH WAY) @ $11+, FIRST FOUR (roving 3, 4, 5 / F), (3, 4 / F / F / 5) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 2: Next is a benchmark 72 over 1100m and this is close to a raffle with very little between most runners and pace/tactics/how track is playing sure to play a key role in the result. Slight lean CLEAR THE BEACH @ $3.50+ (UBET), assuming front runners are given every chance (we’ll at least have one race to monitor prior). Throw a collective blanket over the rest.
SUGGEST: CLEAR THE BEACH (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.50+ (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 3: Next are the three year olds over 1400m and looking to play a couple here despite both being in the market, in the form of INSENSATA @ $3+ (most operators) and COSMIC ENGINE @ $9+ with UBET, SPORTSBET and LUXBET. INSENSATA speaks for herself, looking for a hat trick of wins and is in white-hot form. COSMIC ENGINE is the one I think can improve on both a better/firmer and bigger track. Happy to simply play around the two.
SUGGEST: INSENSATA (WIN) @ $3+, COSMIC ENGINE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $9+, FIRST FOUR (F / 2, 3 / F / 2, 3) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 4: Next is the Class 3 TAB Highway over 1500m and to be honest don’t like this race much at all. Normally don’t mind the TAB Highways, but don’t see any jumping out here. As a result, will have a speculative play on one at a juicy price in BUNNY BAD GIRL at $13+ with LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU and BETSTAR. Needs to improve here in town, but wasn’t long ago when winning back to back races on the Gold Coast so knows how to win and normally takes a couple of runs before finding winning form. Hopefully, that occurs today. Main dangers APPOINT PERCY, NIC’S VENDETTA and PRADA MISS. As mentioned, not overly keen at all.
SUGGEST: BUNNY BAD GIRL (EACH WAY) @ $13+, FIRST FOUR (1, 2, 8 / F / 1, 2, 8 / 13) (CONFIDENCE 20%)
Race 5: Final leg of the early quaddie is a benchmark 72 for the three year old fillies over 1200m. Tricky race again, with decent pace on paper, hence pace/tactics set to be key as I’m anticipating the winner to come from midfield or worse in the run. As a result, have lead slightly with SUSPENDERS at $6.50+ with CROWNBET. Looks well suited in this grade and due for a win after racing well without winning in recent times. As mentioned above, should get relevant pace on to suit. Throw a blanket over the rest, literally can’t narrow with any confidence so will leave things as a standalone each way play.
SUGGEST: SUSPENDERS (EACH WAY) @ $6.50+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 6: First leg of the quaddie is a benchmark 85 over 2000m and that man Chris Waller looks to have a very strong hand in this race with no less than five of the the ten runners in this race. This race is potentially set up for a jockey to take some initiative and get away with a soft lead with no natural leaders in the race. That always makes things tricky unless we are made aware of a change of tactics pre-race. Actually going to lean in the camp of ZOURKHAN at $5+ with SPORTSBET and CENTREBET. Was brilliant winning first up, just missed second up, has had a freshen since and now back in Sydney, with that man Bowman aboard should be hard to beat. Importantly Bowman normally has a fair say in who he rides and given five Waller runners, always an extra guide. Happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Also, want something on *ASHKAAND* at a juicy $47+ with CENTREBET. Probably not going to get the pace on to suit, but is set to start finding form with fitness back on side and although probably still looking for longer (2400m), the $47+ price is too good to refuse. A must for your exotics and at the price, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers ENCOSTA LINE, LIFE O’BRIEN and VAUCLUSE BAY, who obviously saluted for us very well last time at 20/1 before getting into almost half that price when they jumped. No such price today and favourite at $2.70 with most.
SUGGEST: **ZOURKHAN** (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $5+, *ASHKAAND* (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $47+, FIRST FOUR (2, 8, 13 / F / 2, 8, 13 / 6, 12), (2, 8, 13 / 6 / F / 2, 8, 12, 13) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 7: Now for the feature on the card, the Listed Winter Challenge to be run over 1500m. Can’t go past **GOLD SYMPHONY** here at $5.50+ with SPORTSBET. Best horse rule for mine and as long as there is sufficient tempo, then should be hard to beat. Happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. In saying that there isn’t a great deal of pace on paper, so once again another race where a confident, positive ride could pay major dividends for the brave jockey. For this reason also want something on ELLE LOU at $15+ (most operators) who I’m hoping is ridden closer to the pace from the wide gate. At the price happy to take the risk anyway. Main dangers CLASSIC UNIFORM (likely leader), SNIPPETS LAND and SHIRAZ. Good race.
SUGGEST: **GOLD SYMPHONY** (EACH WAY) @ $5.50+, ELLE LOU (EACH WAY) @ $15+, FIRST FOUR (2, 4, 5 / 1, 6 / F / 1, 6) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 8: Penultimate event is a benchmark 85 over 1350m and this is tough as illustrated by the market with 8 of the 11 runners in single figure odds. Slight lean EMBLEY at $8.50+ with LUXBET, PALMERBET and CROWNBET. Ran very well first up and should derive improvement here second up over 1350m. Throw a blanket over the rest with very little between them, with luck/pace/tactics set to separate most.
SUGGEST: EMBLEY (EACH WAY) @ $8.50+ (CONFIDENCE 25%)
Race 9: We finish with a benchmark 80 over 1500m for the fillies and mares. Happy to run with the Waller duo here with AWOKE at $4.60+ (BET365) and LABDIEN at a juicy $17+ with BET365. Both have been competitive in better races than this and will even luck in running (especially *LABDIEN* from the wide gate) then could well be fighting out the finish. Given the price, will make *LABDIEN* a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers LONG TIME AGO, REIBY RAMPART and WAHNG WAH.
SUGGEST: AWOKE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $4.60+, *LABDIEN* (EACH WAY) @ $17+, FIRST FOUR (4, 7, 12 / 8, 11 / F / 8, 11) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Average odds $11.43+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: ZOURKHAN @ $5.00+, GOLD SYMPHONY @ $5.50+
*BEST LONGSHOT*: ASHKAAND @ $47+, LABDIEN @ $17+