SATURDAY, JULY 8, 2016
Racing at FLEMINGTON with forecast relatively clear (possible late showers on the day) and currently looking at a GOOD (4) surface.
RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to FLEMINGTON with the rail back in the TRUE, after being out +9M two weeks’ back when we last raced here. Expecting no major disadvantage to be getting off the fence and potentially coming from off the pace. As always, be sure to keep a close eye on early races for best guide.
Race 1: We start with the three year old fillies over the mile (1600m) and an even tempo on paper which should give all runners their chance. Looking to give SOHO RUBY another chance here despite the big weight of 60kg here at a tidy $6.50+ with BET365.Been racing in better grade than this, but the obvious query is the weight. Happy enough to take the gamble at the price given the class factor here. Main dangers RUBY SEA, ahead of SPANISH REEF and LADY LEE.
SUGGEST: SOHO RUBY (EACH WAY) @ $6.50+, FIRST FOUR (4, 9, 11 / F / 4, 9, 11 / 1) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 2: Next is an event over 2000m and can’t believe the odds available for the old fella in **EXTRA ZERO** at a very juicy $12+ with BET365. Much better than this grade and is low flying at present. Many will simply pot due to age, but this galloper doesn’t know his age and at this level don’t see any reason why he doesn’t go very close. Main concern if anything is a lack of genuine pace on paper but should hopefully be on right part of the track to make ground. At the price a standout BEST VALUE bet of the day. Given the pace factor, plus weight swing also want to play SHOW A STAR at $4.20+ with UNIBET, CROWNBET and BET365. Gets handy weight swing on EXTRA ZERO and as long as on pacers are getting their chance, should be hard to catch. Main dangers KILLARNEY KID, LORD DURANTE and PACODALI.
SUGGEST: **EXTRA ZERO** (EACH WAY) @ $12+, SHOW A STAR (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $4.20+, FIRST FOUR (1, 4, 10 / 2, 6 / F / 2, 6) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 3: Now for the mares over 1400m and this looks a two horse race for mine at the top of the weights with simply the best mares in the race. TSARITSA @ $4.80+ (LUXBET, CROWNBET, TOP BETTA) and A LOTTA LOVE at $7+ with BET365. TSARITSA hasn’t won in a while but has slowly but surely been recapturing form that saw her win much better grade races than this. Last run has her cherry ripe for this and gets right weight swing to turn tables on SCHISM and others. A LOTTA LOVE we were on last week when given absolutely no chance by Williams, last on the rail on the back of a moderate tempo on a track where it was not easy to make ground. Total forgive and can bounce back here. Main dangers SCHISM (despite weight swing) and GIVE US A GO.
SUGGEST: TSARITSA (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $4.80+, A LOTTA LOVE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $7+, FIRST FOUR (5, 6 / 1, 2 / 1, 2 / F), (5, 6 / 1, 2 / F / 1, 2) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 4: Next is a listed event for the two year olds over 1600m. ROYAL SYMPHONY all the rage and rightly so, but with the inside draw (2) will need a touch of luck / or will have to go back around every horse, and plain and simply when contemplating a $1.40 pop, you don’t want any such luck involved. Should be winning, take in your multies, take in a one out early quaddie leg, but I can’t suggest on a big, standalone basis for the reason outlined. Instead, rather small win / larger place plays on MADAME MOUSTACHE @ $23+ (SPORTSBET) and LADY SEABRING at $35+ with SPORTSBET. MADAM MOUSTACHE not going so well, but is capable and can improve with a change of scenery in Melbourne, on a firmer track and with blinkers on. While, LADY SEABRING won well on debut and now reason she can’t run another big race at second outing at a big price, despite the class rise. Main danger the obvious in ROYAL SYMPHONY.
SUGGEST: MADAME MOUSTACHE (SMALL WIN / MORE EACH WAY) @ $23+, LADY SEABRING (SMALL WIN / MORE EACH WAY) @ $35+, FIRST FOUR (roving 1, 3, 7 / F) (CONFIDENCE 15%)
Race 5: Another listed event, this time for the three year olds down the straight over 1200m. Don’t see any reason why INVINCIBLE AL and OVERSTEP don’t fight this out again, and from arguably the better barrier (7), think INVINCIBLE AL @ $4.80+ (LUXBET, CROWNBET, TOP BETTA) can turn the tables on the result, despite a minor (0.5kg) swing against in the weights despite defeat. Main danger OVERSTEP who can win again and think SACRED SHAM can improve also from the wider gate.
SUGGEST: INVINCIBLE AL (EACH WAY) @ $4.80+, FIRST FOUR (roving 2, 3, 6 / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 6: First leg of the quaddie is an open age event over 2600m. Good, little race, but despite a poor win strike rate in recent times, think this is perfect for HURSLEY at $4.80+ with most operators. Track should suit style of racing and gets crucial 2kg swing in the weights to turn tables on main danger and race favourite CHARLEVOIX. Also, want a secondary play on BULLISH STOCK at a tidy $9.50+ with most operators. Liked the way he hit the line last time and prior to that won well. All look to be up in the weights here, but for good reason. Main danger CHARLEVOIX.
SUGGEST: HURSLEY (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $4.80+, BULLISH STOCK (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $9.50+, FIRST FOUR (roving 4, 5, 8 / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 7: Another listed event, this time over the mile (1600m) and a good, solid, competitive race with plenty of legitimate winning chances. Have come out with **AMAVATIO** on top at a tidy $6.50+ with most operators. No luck last time, has won better races than this (actually has won this race before) and despite the weight (the main concern with 60kg) should be hitting the line late and hopefully over the top of them. Happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Also, want a secondary play on HARD CALL at a juicy $35+ with SPORTSBET. Underrated galloper, actually beat home key rival SOVEREIGN NATION last time and despite meeting on same weight scale here, one is $9 v $35! At the price, will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers led by COUNT DA VINCI, LOYALTY MAN, STRIKE FORCE and VICTORY DOWNS, but doesn’t end there in a wide open affair.
SUGGEST: **AMOVATIO** (EACH WAY) @ $6.50+, *HARD CALL* (EACH WAY) @ $35+, FIRST FOUR (9, 10, 11, 14 / F / 9, 10, 11, 14 / 1, 7) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 8: Penultimate event is yet another listed event, this time again down the straight over 1200m. Been patiently waiting for REUTTIGER to get a couple of runs under his belt and more than happy to jump aboard at a tidy $9+ with most operators. More than capable at this level (and beyond) and should be set to improve here. Secondary play on PLAY MASTER at a juicy $23+ with SPORTSBET. Run last time was good and not far behind main key rivals here and didn’t have all the luck you need in a race like this. Hopefully gets the breaks here. Main dangers ABILITY, TASHBEEH, CAMDUS and DUKE OF BRUNSWICK.
SUGGEST: REUTTIGER (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $9, PLAY MASTER (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $23+, FIRST FOUR (1, 4, 7, 8 / F / 1, 4, 7, 8 / 5, 11) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 9: We finish with the three year olds over the mile (1600m). Tough, tough finish here with plenty of chances, and pace/tactics/how track is playing and luck all set to play a factor the finish. Slight lean JAMINZAH here at a tidy $14+ with BET365. Is in great form, despite flop last time when Newitt got it wrong and it was a total forgive. Can bounce back here. Also, want something on TRUMP THIS at a juicy $21+ with most operators. Racing well and importantly should get conditions to suit with any advantage to those running on. Does need a well-timed run from the gate (4) to avoid trouble but happy to take the punt at the price. Finally, a peanut on *SERVEUR* at $51+ with LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU and BETSTAR. Can improve (needs to) and is in white-hot stable who have a knack of getting these types to lift. At the massive price, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers led by WAYANKA, FIRST APPROACH, URBAN RULER and CANNOT BE SERIOS.
SUGGEST: JAMINZAH (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $14+, TRUMP THIS (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $21+, *SERVEUR* (EACH WAY) @ $51+, FIRST FOUR (1, 5, 7, 14 / 6, 12, 15 / F / 6, 12, 15) (CONFIDENCE 25%)
Average odds $15.95+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: EXTRA ZERO @ $12+, AMOVATIO @ $6.50+
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: HARD CALL @ $35+, SERVEUR @ $51+