8 July 2017 (Racing at Warwick Farm)

PUNTING DUNGEON

WWW.PUNTINGDUNGEON.COM.AU

WARWICK FARM

SATURDAY JULY 8, 2017

 

Racing at WARWICK FARM with the penetrometer reading 5.21, meaning we find ourselves looking at a SOFT (6) surface.

RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We return to WARWICK FARM with the rail in the TRUE position. Hoping for a fair track, pace dependant, but as always, be sure to keep an eye on early races for best guide.

 

Race 1: We start with the two year olds over 1200m, and with decent pace on paper, think this sets up perfectly for debut winner AWESOME PLUCK at $3.30+ with UBET. The faster they go up front the better and with the rail in the TRUE position, expecting no major disadvantage to be coming down the outside and over the top of them. Will leave things there.

SUGGEST: AWESOME PLUCK (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.30+ (CONFIDENCE 40%)

 

Race 2: Next is a benchmark 83 for the fillies and mares over 1400m and going with a runner who we just missed with two back, and gets the right weight swing to turn the tables on YUMA DESERT who defeated her last time. The runner in question is **REIBY RAMPART** who looks a nice each way play at $6+ with most operators. Should be drawn in the right spot to make charge at the right time. Happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main dangers PHILOSPHY, YUMA DESERT and NOIRE.

SUGGEST: **REIBY RAMPART** (EACH WAY) @ $6+, FIRST FOUR (2, 4, 7 / F / 2, 4, 7 / 5) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 3: Benchmark 78 over 2400m and don’t see a major reason why COLLATERAL can’t get the job once again and make it 5 on the trot at $2.90+. On face value might look to have a stack of weight, but after the claim, actually gets in 2kg better at the weights for defeating key rival EPSOM HILL last start by 0.8L. Main dangers EPSOM HILL who might prefer the better track and SAYED who is going very well.

SUGGEST: COLLATERAL (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $2.90+, FIRST FOUR (roving 1, 2, 5 / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 4: Next is a benchmark 72 for the three year olds over 1400m and like GHOSTLY here at $3.30+ with UBET. Was unlucky last time and despite all that, loved the way it hit the line. Just have a feeling this gelding has some serious ability and we might just see it today with even luck in running. Handy 1.5kg claim to get important weight relief from main danger and top weight COSMIC ENGINE.  

SUGGEST: GHOSTLY (EACH WAY) @ $3.30+, EXACTA (COSMIC ENGINE / GHOSTLY) (CONFIDENCE 45%)

 

Race 5: Class 2 TAB Highway over 1200m and SUNCRAZE is all the rage and rightly so. Five consecutive 2nd placings (which can be a concern) but when you are on the heels/in front of the likes of Clipper, Ghostly, Cosmic Engine (the latter two to fight out the previous) then should be winning a class two here. Hopefully, a few put it in the ‘non winner’ bucket and we get a price, but I’m not so worried given the class factor and did win on debut. Suggest on a WIN only basis at $1.75+ with most operators.

SUGGEST: SUNCRAZE (WIN) @ $1.75+ (CONFIDENCE 70%)

 

Race 6: First leg of the quaddie is a benchmark 70 for the three year olds over 1100m. This looks very tough and despite a couple short in the market, think this race runs very deep, with a stack of legitimate winning chances. Slight lean with KINGS OF LEON at $9+ who was unlucky first up with great run, which says the gelding might have returned very well. Also, want something on *CADOGAN* at a juicy $20+ who can be a bit up and down, but happy to take the punt that we’re up here and if so, more than capable of a big run at this level with no world-beaters here. At the price, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers SPENDING TO WIN, FAITH’S ENCORE and LAUNCH CODE.

SUGGEST: KINGS OF LEON (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $9+, *CADOGAN* (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $20+, FIRST FOUR (2, 5, 10 / 1, 9 / F / 1, 9), (F / 2, 5, 10 / 2, 5, 10 / 1, 9) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 7: Benchmark 93 over the mile (1600m) with pace/tactics set to be key with a small field and most importantly minimal pace on paper. Actually think the speed map best suits ZAYAM who I’m happy to play on an each way basis at $9+. Importantly gets good weight swing against key rival LIAPARI here. The good news for the backmarkers is the small field, meaning they won’t necessarily have a great deal of ground to make up, however I’m hoping we pinch a break on the turn and kick away. Happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main danger SO WILLIE but doesn’t end there, most runners with legitimate claims. Note, no third dividend.

SUGGEST: **ZAYAM** (EACH WAY) @ $9+, FIRST FOUR (4 / F / 6 / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

Race 8: Penultimate event is a benchmark 82 over 1100m and don’t see any reason why YOUR WAY @ $3.60+ doesn’t make it a lazy 8 wins from 10 starts if you don’t mind. Has to carry 60kg, but deserves it, runs time, is a ‘winner’, fresh form good and last prep proved she was good enough in town. Saver on I CAN ROCK @ $8.50+ hence happy to play both on WIN only basis’ with outlays staggered accordingly.

SUGGEST: YOUR WAY (WIN - PRIMARY) @ $3.60+, I CAN ROCK (WIN - SECONDARY) @ $8.50+, FIRST FOUR (F / 2, 11 / F / 2, 11) (CONFIDENCE 40%) 

 

Race 9: We finish with a benchmark 78 over 1300m and a tough finish. Slight lean to NONPAREIL at $5+ who looks to have the right form for a race like this, while with many others you are hoping for improvement to be a winning chance. Just needs a touch of luck (as do all in a busy field like this) and if so should be right in the finish. Also, want something on IMANUI at a tidy $12+. Consistent galloper, and liked recent trial when hit the line very strongly under a hold, telling me ready to fire first up. On a card with not many legitimate longshots identified, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day, although $12 is not what I’d normally classify as a longshot…although many others would. ;-) Main dangers FRANCESCO, MEINER FRECCIA and TIME OUT OF MIND.

SUGGEST: NONPAREIL (EACH WAY) @ $5+, *IMANUI* (EACH WAY) @ $12+, FIRST FOUR (F / 7, 8, 15 / 7, 8, 9, 14, 15 / 9, 14) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

SUMMARY:

Average odds $5.53+ per suggested runner!

** BEST VALUE **: REIBY RAMPART @ $6+, ZAYAM @ $9+

*BEST LONGSHOT*: CADOGAN @ $20+, IMANUI @ $12+

#happypunting