12 August 2017 (Racing at Flemington)

PUNTING DUNGEON

WWW.PUNTINGDUNGEON.COM.AU

FLEMINGTON

SATURDAY, AUGUST 12, 2016

 

Racing at FLEMINGTON and with showers forecast (70% chance of 1 - 4mm), so looking at somewhere between a GOOD (4) and SOFT (5) surface depending on how much actually arrives.

RAIL: +10M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to FLEMINGTON with the rail out +10M after being out +6M last week. Hoping for an even track, pace dependant, but Flemington in particular has been hard to read of late and as a result a little wary. Be sure to keep a close eye on the track and how it’s playing in the early races for best guide, especially given recent uncertainty over how the track will play.

Note: Be sure to take advantage of the promo on offer with CROWNBET at Flemington today with money back (in matched bonus bets) up to $50 if your selection runs 2nd or 3rd in races 1-4 below. And extra special promo Dungeon followers only, with race 6 (see details below):

Race 1: We start with a benchmark 70 for the three year olds over 1400m. Disappointed by the scratching of ALJAWZAA who looked extremely hard to beat here, but now gone. Instead will go with stablemate **MULK** at $5.50+ (SPORTSBET, BET365) who wasn’t far away in good race last time when we were on the winner in Shamport. Down in class, and only goes up 1.5kg, which happens to be 0.5kg better off than race favourite NISTAAN and actually beat him home. Actually happy to start with a BEST VALUE bet of the day here on an each way basis and given the CROWNBET promo above, money back for 2nd and 3rd up to $50 for added insurance.

SUGGEST: **MULK** (EACH WAY) @ $5.50+ (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 2: Next event is over 2530m and going to give KILIMANJARO another chance at $3+ (BET365) after misfiring last time. Taking on trust after impressive debut run in Australia and if any chance of being a Melbourne Cup contended, should be winning a race like this. At current price, probably looking at a WIN only play. Main danger MASTER ZEPHYR who looks to be back in form after a flat patch. Remember the money back for 2nd/3rd (up to $50) for races 1-4 (see banner above) so definitely extremely applicable here for additional insurance.

SUGGEST: KILIMANJARO (WIN) @ $3+, FIRST FOUR (3 / 2 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 3: Next is an open event over 1400m and SOVERIGN NATION looks hard to beat here at $2.20+ with most operators. Will keep it simple, keen on a WIN only basis. Throw a blanket over the rest in a case of SOVEREIGN NATION or who knows. Remember the money back for 2nd/3rd (up to $50) for races 1-4 (see banner above) so definitely extremely applicable here for additional insurance.

SUGGEST: SOVEREIGN NATION (WIN) @ $2.20+ (CONFIDENCE 45%)

 

Race 4: Next is a benchmark 84 over 1700m. Competitive race, with plenty of chances. Slight lean COSMIC LIGHTS @ $4.60+ (CROWNBET, UBET) who looks well suited here after a small freshen up. Been running very well without winning (always right in the finish) and doesn’t need to improve much to get the chocolates here. Is due/overdue to return to the winning stalls. Then, want something on MR GUSTAVO at $21+ (BET365) who we liked last week at a huge price, but was scratched and hopefully gets his crack here at odds. Remember the money back for 2nd/3rd (up to $50) for races 1-4 (see banner above) so definitely extremely applicable here for additional insurance. 

SUGGEST: COSMIC LIGHTS (EACH WAY) @ $4.60+, MR GUSTAVO (EACH WAY) @ $21+, FIRST FOUR (F / 9 / F / 7) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 5: Benchmark 84 for the fillies and mares over 1400m. The class looks to be with SAMOVARE here, but very skinny at $2 with most, and as a result, from a betting proposition perspective, just think SWAMPLAND at $5+ (BET365) offers better value. As a result, slight lean there with the main danger SAMOVARE, narrow finish to the last leg of your early quaddie with just the two.

SUGGEST: SWAMPLAND (EACH WAY) @ $5+, FIRST FOUR (6 / F / F / 2) (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

Race 6: First leg of the quaddie is a benchmark 70 to be run over 1400m. Another very competitive race with plenty of legitimate winning chances. Slight lean **WAYANKA** here at $6+ with most operators. Good each way value and like back to 1400m, with a query on running a strong mile. At the price, happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day and as an extra special bonus, CrownBet have agreed to extend their run 2nd/3rd and get money back in bonus bets offer to Dungeon followers for this selection also. See additional detail at the bottom of the screen, beneath the summary for further details. Then, want a secondary play on SHOCKAHOLIC at a juicy $26+ with most operators. Second up run was solid and always seems to take at least 2 to get going. Third up here, expect noticeable improvement and has won equal/better races than this before and not necessarily that long ago. Main dangers INVICTUM DOMINA, KILMACURRAGH, TAHI and KNOWABLE.  

SUGGEST: **WAYANKA** (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $6+, SHOCKAHOLIC (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $26+, FIRST FOUR (3, 9, 11, 19 / F / 3, 9, 11, 19 / 12, 13) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 7: Now for the feature, the Group 3 Aurie’s Star over 1200m. Tough but cracking race with little between them. Slight lean HEY DOC at $6+ with most operators. Has become a very consistent galloper and is one of you technically down in grade here after not being far away in hot $1 million Group 1 in Adelaide. Then, happy to give RUETTIGER at a juicy $17+ with BET365. Was finding form nicely, until disappointing last time but notice some gear changes here to hopefully make him settle better. If he does, then in this up to the gelding’s eye balls. Main dangers I AM A STAR, GRANDE ROSSO and FLIPPANT, but doesn’t end there.

SUGGEST: HEY DOC (EACH WAY) @ $6+, RUETTIGER (EACH WAY) @ $17+, FIRST FOUR (2, 3, 5 / 1, 9 / F / 1, 9) (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

Race 8: Penultimate event is a benchmark 78 over 2000m. Class looks to be with the obvious in the form of CROCODILE ROCK and GALAXY RAIDER, with CROCODILE ROCK’s price come and gone into a skinny $2.80 with most. Given, this, think better values lies with GALAXY RAIDER who looks back in form, and a decent betting proposition at $6+ with BET365. Then, want a longshot play on *BAJOUR* who looks over the odds at a big $41+ with BET365. Good on its day and latest run when only 3.5L behind Jaminzah doesn’t read too badly for a race like this, especially at a $41 price tag. Given the odds on offer, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main danger most definitely CROCODILE ROCK who’s a must for savers and similar.  

SUGGEST: GALAXY RAIDER (EACH WAY – PRIMARY) @ $6+, *BAJOUR* (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $41+, FIRST FOUR (roving 1, 9, 14 / F), (1 / F / F / 9, 14) (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

Race 9: We finish with a benchmark 90 over the short course 1000m and a very open finish, but actually think there is plenty of value. As a result, actually looking a three-pronged play on three at juicy prices. Firstly, GUN CASE looks a great each way price at a juicy $15+ with most operators. Is racing very well, winning two of past three, and the miss was as good as the wins, when 7th beaten 2.1L to Ability who won Group 3 last week in ultra-impressive style. Handy 3kg claim gets the gelding down to a respectable 58.5kg. Then, don’t see why *PLAY MASTER* is $31+ (BET365) after also racing very well in recent times. Won down the straight two back, also only 2.6L behind Ability four starts back and seems to simply love the straight. At the odds, will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Finally, something on ROYALIC at $31+ with BET365. Jump in grade, but like these ex-Perth gallopers coming across and joining the likes of Hayes, should run well at a big price.  

SUGGEST: GUN CASE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $15+, *PLAY MASTER* (EACH WAY) @ $31+, ROYALIC (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $31+, FIRST FOUR (roving 1, 6, 16 / F), (F / 1, 6, 16 / F / 1, 6, 16) (CONFIDENCE 30%) 

 

SUMMARY:

Average odds a juicy $20.50+ per suggested runner!

** BEST VALUE **: MULK @ $5.50+, WAYANKA @ $6+

*BEST LONGSHOTS*: BAJOUR @ $41+, PLAY MASTER @ $31+

#happypunting

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Flemington SPECIAL – BEST VALUE – Race 6 No. 13 WAYANKA

We have an exclusive CrownBet ‘Run 2nd or 3rd’ special for our BEST VALUE suggestion WAYANKA in Race 6 at Flemington today!

Place a Fixed-Odds Win Bet on WAYANKA and if the gelding finishes 2nd or 3rd, you'll receive matched Bonus Bets up to $50.

This offer applies to your first Fixed-Odds Win Bet placed on this nominated race.

Please email aspdungeon@gmail.com to confirm once you have placed your Fixed Odds WIN bet on WAYANKA with CrownBet;

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Email

CrownBet username

Punting Dungeon and CrownBet will credit your Bonus Bet before 5pm Monday.

*CrownBet T&Cs apply to any Bonus Bet credited. This exclusive offer only available to members of ASP Dungeon. Excludes Residents of NSW & SA. CrownBet members must place a WIN only Fixed Odds bet on WAYANKA in Race 6 at Flemington, Saturday 12 August 2017. CrownBet will match your Fixed Odds Win Bet up to $50 with a Bonus Bet if WAYANKA finishes 2nd or 3rd.  18+ Gamble Responsibly.