SATURDAY AUGUST 12, 2017
Racing at ROSEHILL GARDENS with lovely weather (yes, the weather has well and truly improved in Sydney with a sensational winter in progress). Penetrometer reading 4.52, meaning we find ourselves looking at a GOOD (3) surface.
RAIL: +3M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We return to ROSEHILL with the rail out +3M after being in the TRUE position two weeks back. Hoping for a fair track, however given the conditions expecting no major disadvantage closer to the fence/pace, (pace dependant) but as always be sure to keep an eye on early races for best guide.
Note: Be sure to take advantage of the promo on offer with CROWNBET at Rosehill today with money back (in matched bonus bets) up to $50 if your selection runs 2nd or 3rd in races 1-4 below, in addition to an extra special bonus for Dungeon followers in race 5. See race itself and bottom of this page for further details:
Race 1: We start with a class 2 over 1100m and keen on **LIFESAVER** here at $5.50+ with most operators. Doesn’t look to be a great deal of pace here, hence should hopefully be able to dictate terms up front and if that pans out, should be hard to catch. At the price, happy to open with a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Scared stiff of debutante ANOTHER SIN who has been well backed into a short $3 price. Happy to leave things there. Actually happy to start with a BEST VALUE bet of the day here on an each way basis and given the CROWNBET promo above, money back for 2nd and 3rd up to $50 for added insurance.
SUGGEST: **LIFESAVER** (EACH WAY) @ $5.50+, FIRST FOUR (F / 10 / F / 1), (10 / F / F / 1) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 2: Next is a benchmark 80 over 2000m and although I concede VAUCLUSE BAY looks hard to beat (and we’re a fan after backing at 20/1 two back), can’t jump into the red figures, especially with the increased weight and distinct lack of pace on paper. This could be set up for a jockey with initiative with no notable leaders engaged here. For this reason, I think there are two who might end up leading or right on the pace and happy to play in their camp. First is NOT A GYPSY with Blake Shinn aboard for the Snowdens at a tidy $8.50+ with BET365. Has been getting back from wide gates, but from barrier 1 can be ridden much more positively and you don’t need to scroll back too far to see good runs when on/close to the pace. The other is KING VIV for Kim Waugh at a juicy $13+ with LUXBET. Similarly, racing well enough for a race like this and should give them something to catch. Main danger VAUCLUSE BAY for obvious reasons. Remember the money back for 2nd/3rd (up to $50) for races 1-4 (see banner above) so definitely extremely applicable here for additional insurance.
SUGGEST: NOT A GYPSY (EACH WAY) @ $8.50+, KING VIV (EACH WAY) @ $13+ (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 3: Next is an event over 1800m and similar to the above, concede ARBEITSAM looks hard to beat for Tommy Berry, but can’t get enthused about the $1.75 price tag with most operators. Will lead and give them something to catch, however there does look to be some more pressure here and as a result prefer to play a couple of others at double figure odds in *SULTAN OF SWING* at CLASSIC UNIFORM, at $14+ and $13+ respectively. Both weren’t far aware in good race last time behind Shiraz and that reads very well for this. CLASSIC UNIFORM went slightly better and distance suits better, but *SULTAN OF SWING* gets in very well at the weights. Query is the trip, but if the gelding gets the trip, then a super each way price. Remember the money back for 2nd/3rd (up to $50) for races 1-4 (see banner above) so definitely extremely applicable here for additional insurance.
SUGGEST: *SULTAN OF SWING* (EACH WAY) @ $14+, CLASSIC UNIFORM (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $13+, FIRST FOUR (roving 1, 6, 7 / F), (F / 7 / F / 1, 7) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 4: Next is a benchmark 94 over 1100m. Good race, but can’t go past SIR PLUSH here at $3.10+ (CROWNBET, TOPBETTA). Has fitness on his side, is in good form, and importantly should get a good run in transit. Throw a blanket over the rest in what is a competitive race if we haven’t nailed the winner with SIR PLUSH. Remember the money back for 2nd/3rd (up to $50) for races 1-4 (see banner above) so definitely extremely applicable here for additional insurance.
SUGGEST: SIR PLUSH (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.10+ (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 5: Benchmark 83 over 1350m and unfortunately think the bookies have got this pretty right with those shortest in the market looking likely to fight this out. In saying that, of those deepest in the market, like the one offering the better price in top weight **WILD ‘N’ FAMOUS** at $6+ with LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS, BETSTAR and CROWNBET. Looks a good each way price despite the weight, ran well last time after a freshen up and can improve again here to get a much deserved win. Been racing consistently without winning of late. At the price, happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day and as an extra special bonus, CrownBet have agreed to extend their run 2nd/3rd and get money back in bonus bets offer to Dungeon followers for this selection also. See additional detail at the bottom of the screen, beneath the summary for further details. Main dangers PEACOCK (who we’ve had luck with at odds in the spring) and THE PHAROAH.
SUGGEST: **WILD ‘N’ FAMOUS** (EACH WAY) @ $6+, FIRST FOUR (4, 7 / F / F / 2) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 6: First leg of the quaddie is a Listed event for the three year olds over 1100m. Like MENARI who I think just might be the best of the lot. When you go back through 2YO prep, couldn’t have been more impressive on debut (becoming one of the Slipper favourites), before going down to Pariah (no disgrace) and then hitting three ‘very’ heavy tracks that I don’t think suited. As a result, as long as he’s wound up and ready to fire first up (monitor betting, have a good look in mounting yard) then $3.50 (SPORTSBET) looks a good price. Plenty of legitimate dangers especially given the age group (new three year olds coming out of two year old year where many do improve) but happy to play on trust.
SUGGEST: MENARI (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.50+ (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 7: Now for an open 1400m event and there looks to be good enough speed here, so most runners should get their chance. Many of these will simply be starting here, with bigger fish to fry later on, and as a result, can’t go past WASHINGTON HEIGHTS at $2.80+ (CROWNBET) who won well last time and can win again after a small freshen up. Important race to note any significant market movers, especially with several of these more than capable at this (and greater levels) but comes to how wound up they are first up. Speaking of which if looking for a way to track market movers, download the free Plunge app at www.plungeapp.com.au/download.
SUGGEST: WASHINGTON HEIGHTS (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $2.80+ (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 8: Penultimate event is a benchmark 80 for the fillies and mares over 1400m. Good, competitive race. Going to stick with SUSPENDERS who got the chocolates for us last time, and despite not being that well weighted, think tempo in the race can offset that at a tidy $9+ with BET365. At the weights SLUBER PARTY should beat it, but there is a bit of pace up front (which could be amplified is there is any apparent on pace advantage earlier in the day) which could help those coming from off the pace. The other I want a play on is *SHE BRINGS HOPE* at a juicy $34+ with LABDROKES, BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU and BETSTAR. Brings okay Melbourne form and looks big overs. At the price, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers HETTY HEIGHTS ($15+ CENTREBET), SLUBER PARTY and FAITH’S ENCORE but doesn’t end there in a competitive third leg of the quaddie.
SUGGEST: SUSPENDERS (EACH WAY) @ $9+, *SHE BRINGS HOPE* (EACH WAY) @ $34+, FIRST FOUR (1, 6, 8 / 2, 10 / F / 2, 10) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 9: We finish with a benchmark 80 over 1500m and can’t go past the obvious here in SPECIAL MISSILE at $3.10+ with BET365. Looking for 4 wins on the trot as he steps through the grades beautifully. This doesn’t look overly strong with the better runners most likely looking for longer, later.
SUGGEST: SPECIAL MISSILE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.10+ (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Average odds $9.63+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: LIFESAVER @ $5.50+, WILD ‘N’ FAMOUS @ $6+
*BEST LONGSHOT*: SULTAN OF SWING @ $14+, SHE BRINGS HOPE @ $34+
Rosehill SPECIAL – BEST VALUE – Race 5 No. 1 WILD ‘N’ FAMOUS
We have an exclusive CrownBet ‘Run 2nd or 3rd’ special for our BEST VALUE suggestion WILD ‘N’ FAMOUS in Race 5 at Rosehill today!
Place a Fixed-Odds Win Bet on WILD ‘N” FAMOUS and if the gelding finishes 2nd or 3rd, you'll receive matched Bonus Bets up to $50.
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Punting Dungeon and CrownBet will credit your Bonus Bet before 5pm Monday.
*CrownBet T&Cs apply to any Bonus Bet credited. This exclusive offer only available to members of ASP Dungeon. Excludes Residents of NSW & SA. CrownBet members must place a WIN only Fixed Odds bet on WILD ‘N’ FAMOUS in Race 5 at Rosehill, Saturday 12 August 2017. CrownBet will match your Fixed Odds Win Bet up to $50 with a Bonus Bet if WILD ’N’ FAMOUS finishes 2nd or 3rd. 18+ Gamble Responsibly.