SATURDAY, AUGUST 26, 2017
Racing at MOONEE VALLEY with relatively fine weather forecast (20% chance of late shower), penetrometer 4.72, hence currently looking at a GOOD (4) surface.
RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to MOONEE VALLEY for the first time since June with the rail in the TRUE position. Hoping for even track where all runners get their chance (pace dependant), expecting no major disadvantage away from the fence, running on, but as always, be sure to keep a close eye on early races for best guide.
Race 1: We start with an open event over 2500m and bookies look to have this pretty right with those short in the market all there for a reason, predominately through the likes of MASTER ZEPHYR, CLARLEVOIX and YOGI. Of the three CHARLEVOIX represents the best value at $4.50+ (BET365) and that’s good enough for me as it’s very hard to split the three in question. We were on last time when terribly unlucky, and hopefully has much better luck here. Main dangers YOGI and MASTER ZEPHYR.
SUGGEST: CHARLEVOIX (EACH WAY) @ $4.50+, FIRST FOUR (2, 6 / 2, 6 / F / 4) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 2: Next is a benchmark 84 for the four year olds mares over 1200m. Slight lean with **MERRIEST** here at $5+ (most operators) who I’ve always rated highly and have had some good luck with over the journey. Trialled well, goes well fresh and quite simply may be the best horse in the race, at this stage anyways. At the price happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main danger HEAR THE CHANT who is another who has trialled well and has been good for followers in the past.
SUGGEST: **MERRIEST** (EACH WAY) @ $5+, FIRST FOUR (2 / F / F / 4) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 3: Next event is for the three year old fillies over 1200m. Can’t go past TULIP here at $2.60+ with most operators. Rate the Hayes 3YO crop and after going ½ last week with Formality and Catchy, hoping to make it 2/3 with TULIP here. Doesn’t seem to be a great deal between the three and you’d expect them to be at the pointy end of the 3YO tree/crop. Main dangers LIMESTONE and GARRARD both of which did very little wrong in first prep.
SUGGEST: TULIP (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $2.60+, FIRST FOUR (3, 5 / 1 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 4: Benchmark 78 over the mile (1600m) and a tricky race, mainly due to the big field and minimal amount of pace on paper. Given the pace factor, slight lean with bottom weight REBELLIOUS LORD at $3.80+ with UBET. Racing well, weighted well here for defeat behind JAMINZAH and importantly should get a cozy running on/close to the pace. Also, want a longshot play on GOULDIAN where you can just about write your own ticket, currently at $101+ with BET365. Another who should be favoured by the tempo, drop to the mile a legitimate concern but over the odds at 100/1+. Main danger SIN TO WIN, DATA POINT and COSMIC LIGHTS.
SUGGEST: REBELLIOUS LORD (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.80+, GOULDIAN (EACH WAY) @ $101+, FIRST FOUR (5, 9, 12 / 19 / F / 5, 9, 12, 17) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 5: Now another open event, this time over the famous 2040m. Even, competitive race which sees the return of last year’s Melbourne Cup winner ALMANDIN. Slight lean here to PACODALI at $3.80+ (BET365) who is in ready form, winning past two before a freshen up and three of past four. No reason why he can’t notch up the hat trick. Longshot, blowout chance to *FOUNDATION* at $51+ with SPORTSBET and BET365. Needs to improve significantly, but love the look of this galloper, big, muscly figure and the addition of blinkers a notable gear change which could just sharpen him up. Expect improvement and at the price, will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers SECOND BULLET, HANS HOLBEIN and KILLARNEY KID. But, doesn’t end there. Deep race.
SUGGEST: PACODALI (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.80+, *FOUNDATION* (EACH WAY) @ $51+, FIRST FOUR (2, 4, 5 / 6 / F / 3) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 6: First leg of the quaddie is a Listed event for the three year old colts and geldings over 1200m. Like the Hayes duo here in MURAAQEB at $7+ (most operators) and TYCOON DANCER at $13+ with BET365. Both trialling well, and both have done very little wrong in short careers to date. MURAAQEB returns to location of debut win, and think a more patient run further back in the field, with the rail TRUE could suit very well here. TYCOON DANCER will probably be on the pace and assuming the rail is at least even, can give them all something to chase at odds.
SUGGEST: MURAAQEB (EACH WAY) @ $7+, TYCOON DANCER (EACH WAY) @ $13+, FIRST FOUR (F / 7, 8 / F / 7, 8) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 7: Another Listed event, this time over 1000m. Like O’MALLEY here at a juicy $14+ with UBET, and also KEEN ARRAY also at double figure odds at $10+ with most operators. Liked **O’MALLEY** a couple of weeks ago, but scratched, hence just hoping has been saved as opposed to have an issue. Decent pace on paper, should suit, as well as any advantage to those running on away from the fence. At the price happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day at the juicy price. KEEN ARRAY is more of a ‘take on trust’ proposition after failing horribly last time. In saying that, the heavens opened that day (I personally was at the track and it was crazy!), hence happy to put a line through that run. Happy to play the two at odds in a competitive race. Main dangers HEATHERLY and MISS ROCK.
SUGGEST: **O’MALLEY** (EACH WAY) @ $14+, KEEN ARRAY (EACH WAY) @ $10+, FIRST FOUR (10, 11 / 2, 7 / F / 2, 7) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 8: Penultimate event is an open event over 1500m. Liked TASHBEEH a couple of weeks also, before being scratched, so definitely like here in an easier race at a juicy $18+ with UBET. Not a mud-lark so ignore last start flop in good race on a bog track, and you don’t have to go back too much further in order to find good, competitive runs in similar fields. Like on an each way basis, and the price good enough (just) to play as a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Then, also want something on DUKE OF BRUNSWICK at $4+ with UBET. The two chosen prefer this distance range, while many others have the class, but are better over longer, and both have fitness on their side also. Happy to simply play around the two.
SUGGEST: *TASHBEEH* (EACH WAY) @ $18, DUKE OF BRUNSWICK (EACH WAY) @ $4+, FIRST FOUR (F / 3, 4 / F / 3, 4) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 9: We finish with a benchmark 90 over 1200m and a competitive race to finish things off with. Looking to play a couple here in the lucky last, in the form of HAY BALE at $8.50+ (most operators) and SMACKDOWN at a juicy $15+ with most operators also. HAY BALE has been good to us recently winning as a BEST VALUE pick two back, and can hopefully do similar here, although will need a touch of luck from barrier 12. While, SMACKDOWN is an underrated galloper in my humble opinion and form doesn’t warrant the price tag, with form around Play Master, Divine Mr Artie, Mio Dio and Thermal Current who are more than good enough in this grade. Main dangers OAK DOOR, ROCKET TOMMY and REUTTIGER.
SUGGEST: HAY BALE (EACH WAY) @ $8.50+, SMACKDOWN (EACH WAY) @ $15+, FIRST FOUR (2, 7, 8 / 9, 12 / F / 9, 12) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Average odds $15.85+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: MERRIEST @ $5+, O’MALLEY @ $14+
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: FOUNDATION @ $51+, TASHBEEH @ $18+