SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 2, 2017
Racing at CAULFIELD with 0-2mm forecast, so currently looking at a GOOD (4) surface.
RAIL: +6M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to CAULFIELD with the rail out +6M, after it was out +3M two weeks ago. Hoping for even track where all runners get their chance (pace dependant), but as always, be sure to keep a close eye on early races for best guide.
Race 1: We start with a benchmark 70 over 1400m and a small, yes competitive affair to start proceedings. Slight lean to JUSTICE GLORY at $4.20+ (most operators) in what will hopefully be the start of a big day for the Hayes stable. Will keep getting better over longer, but first up run was great and 1.5kg claim gets her in with a winnable weight. Main dangers two that she beat last time in PROSECUTION and PLAY THAT SONG.
SUGGEST: JUSTICE GLORY (EACH WAY) @ $4.20+, FIRST FOUR roving (1, 2, 7 / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 2: Next is a 1400m event for the mares and a more competitive race that I think many are expecting. Concede the two shorter priced favourites (SWAMPLAND, OREGON’S DAY) are right in this, believe better value is elsewhere and prefer to play a couple at odds instead. The two in question are EVERY FAITH at $10+ (BET365) and SCHISM at $11+ (UBET, BET365). Both in form and proven at this level, trip and scenario. Really liked how EVERY FAITH hit the line last time, telling me she just might have returned better this time in. While SCHISM won three on the trot (no mean feat) all over this trip, before being outclassed and outpaced over 1200m behind Vega Magic. Is actually 4 wins from 5 starts at the trip and the only miss was a 3.3L 4th. Main dangers the two mentioned in SWAMPLAND and OREGON’S DAY, as well as RISQUE who I think can improve at a price ($31+).
SUGGEST: EVERY FAITH (EACH WAY) @ $10+, SCHISM (EACH WAY) @ $11+, FIRST FOUR (1, 8, 11 / 2, 5 / F / 2, 5), (1, 8, 11 / F / 1, 8, 11 / 2, 5) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 3: Now for a benchmark 78 over 1200m and a tough race. Will be interesting how the track plays, for example had DUSTY JACK drawn a better gate (19) I’d be all over like a cheap suit, but obviously wary of where he’ll get in the run from the car park. Big query in the race is HALLELUJAH BOY who has been heavily backed in early markets for Australian debut after impressive trials. Going to play three here at odds in the form of DUSTY JACK at $15+ (most operators) which is simply too good to dismiss despite the gate, stablemate *HIGHLAND BEAT* @ $41+ (LUXBET, UBET) and *RICH LUCK* at the same $41+ with BET365. At the respective prices will make them both our BEST LONGSHOT bets of the day. All more than capable despite having obviously queries here (predominately weight and barriers) however each over the odds considering. Main dangers THEANSWERMYFRIEND, MR SNEAKY and HALLELUJAH BOY.
SUGGEST: DUSTY JACK (EACH WAY) @ $15+, *RICH LUCK* (EACH WAY) @ $41+, *HIGHLAND BEAT* (EACH WAY) @ $41+, FIRST FOUR (3, 4, 14 / F / 3, 4, 14 / 1, 7, 8) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 4: Now for the first of the features, the Group 3 McNeil Stakes for the three year olds over 1200m. Again concede those short in the market (led by the already heavily backed MERCHANT NAVY) will be hard to beat, but again think much better value is to be found elsewhere. Like KOBAYASHI @ $9.5+ (UNIBET, UBET) and PLOVERSET @ $12+ with LUXBET. Have always found KOBAYASHI to be underrated, having done very little wrong in short career to date (in good grade), while PLOVERSET is similar already taking some scalps in good quality races. Main dangers MERCHANT NAVY, TREKKING, BOOKER, and POSEIDON’S POOL, the latter two at double figure prices.
SUGGEST: KOBAYASHI (EACH WAY) @ $9.50+, PLOVERSET (EACH WAY) @ $12+, FIRST FOUR (2, 3, 8, 11 / F / 2, 3, 8, 11 / 1, 10) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 5: Next of the features, is the Group 3 Cockram Stakes for the mares over 1200m and we can keep this short and sweet with one we have backed at most outings and thankfully with plenty of success. The runner in question is **FUHRYK** at $2.90+ (SPORTSBET) and although I would have loved a better price, given the field, can’t not back this mare. If she doesn’t win, then it’s a case of ‘who knows?’ as it then gets very even, so for me it’s FUHRYK or nothing here. Skinnier than usual but at the price happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day.
SUGGEST: **FUHRYK** (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $2.90+ (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 6: First leg of the quaddie is another Group 3, this time in the form of The Heath to be run over 1100m. And going to keep this simply again (and again for that Hayes stable, that I’m obviously hoping will have a big day out). The runner this time is SHIEDEL at $2.80+ with each of UBET, LUXBET and PALMERBET. Is the class runner in the race, last first up run happened to be at this track over this same distance, on that occasion winning a Group 1! Jumps in weight to accommodate, however flies fresh (5 starts: 3 wins, 1 x 2nd) and should get a good run from barrier 3. Main dangers VOODOO LAD, MALIBU STYLE and CRYSTAL DREAMER.
SUGGEST: SHIEDEL (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $2.80+, FIRST FOUR (2, 3, 8 / 4 / F / 2, 3, 8), (2, 3, 8 / F / 4 / 2, 3, 8) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 7: Now for the main feature of the day, the Group 1 Memsie Stakes to be run over 1400m. Cracking race, plenty of intrigue being the first G1 of what is legitimately the “Spring”. So many form lines and fitness levels to try and line up, however on value think the Weir runners have surprisingly come up decent value and somewhat forgotten for various reasons. As a result, going to have a staggered play on BLACK HEART BART @ $7+ (SPORTSBET), TOSEN STARDOM @ $15+ (SPORTSBET, BET365) and HUMIDOR @ $26+ with UBET and SPORTSBET. All proven at this grade, all better for first up runs and better at the step up to 1400m (some beyond). Given all are from the one stable, particularly respect and strong money closer to jump time. Main dangers the obvious in VEGA MAGIC, HEY DOC (who won well for followers last time) and LE ROMAIN who is one of my personal faves and has been very good to Dungeon followers, but think the better value is with the Weir runners on this occasion.
SUGGEST: BLACK HEART BART (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $7+, TOSEN STARDOM (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $15+, HUMIDOR (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $26+, FIRST FOUR (2, 5, 8 / F / 2, 5, 8 / 1, 3, 4), (2, 5, 8 / 1, 3, 4 / F / 1, 3, 4) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 8: Penultimate event is the last of the features, the Listed Heatherlie Stakes over 1700m, a first hit out for some Melbourne Cup aspirants. Going with **HELL OR HIGHWATER** @ $5.50+ (most operators), who might not have the class of several, but has the race day fitness on her side, and you know what they say about mares in form? They keep winning and this girl is looking for three in a row. 1700m suits, and hopefully track is giving leaders/on pacers their chance and if so will give them something to catch and hopefully hold off plenty expecting to flash late. At the price happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Throw a blanket over the rest, with fitness and how they look in the mounting yard important, and keep an eye on market movements closer to jump time, especially for those first up from long spells.
SUGGEST: **HELL OR HIGHWATER** (EACH WAY) @ $5.50 (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 9: We finish with an open handicap over 1400m and a wide open finish to the card. Not overly enthused by the price, but think GRANDE ROSSO looks a clear-cut top pick at $2.60+ (CROWNBET) but hoping for better on the day. Low flying, beautifully suited this grade, won 2 x listed races last prep, first up 0.6L from Hey Doc in a Group 3, better suited over the 1400m, ticks all the boxes. Then, also want something on OZI CHOICE at $12+ with UBET, WILLIAM HILL and LUXBET. Also looks well suited here and gets in well at the weights. Main dangers CHOCOLATE HOLIC, DIVINE MR ARTIE (inside gate, where doe he land?), REVOLVING DOOR (barrier 20?) and HARDHAM.
SUGGEST: GRANDE ROSSO (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $2.60+, OZI CHOICE (EACH WAY) @ $12+, FIRST FOUR (4, 6, 16, 20 / 2, 18 / F / 2, 18) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Average odds $13.59+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: FUHRYK @ $2.90+, HELL OR HIGHWATER @ $5.50+
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: RICH LUCK @ $41+, HIGHLAND BEAT @ $41+