SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 16, 2016
Racing at FLEMINGTON with showers seemingly missing the track for the most part Friday, while today (60% chance of 0 - 2mm but possible hail? Who knows!), so currently looking at GOOD (4) surface obviously depending on how much actually arrives throughout the afternoon.
RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to FLEMINGTON with the rail back to the TRUE position. Hoping for an even track, pace dependant, especially now that the rain has seemingly missed the track for the most part (up to 10mm was forecast Friday). Be sure to keep a close eye on the track and how it’s playing in the early races for best guide.
Note: Be sure to take advantage of the promo on offer with CROWNBET at Flemington today with money back (in matched bonus bets) up to $50 if your selection runs 2nd or 3rd in races 1-5 below:
Race 1: We start a cracking day of racing with a Listed event for the three year old fillies over 1100m. JORDA is all the rage and understandably so, given two very good runs in short career to date, but short enough for mine already and expecting to only tighten further with many declaring her. Instead, prefer to play a couple of others in the form of ROOMOOZ at $5+ (LUXBET) and PLOVERSET at $12+ with BET365. ROOMOOZ I thought was a great chance last week, when saved for this which looks easier if anything, while PLOVERSET’s career best run was down the straight here and last start was a total forgive when chocked down, and no surprise to have the tongue tie added here. Main danger the obvious in JORDA and I’d be surprised if the one hasn’t been mentioned above. Remember the money back for 2nd/3rd (up to $50) for races 1 - 5 (see banner above) so definitely extremely applicable here for additional insurance.
SUGGEST: ROOMOOZ (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $5+, PLOVERSET (EACH WAY) @ $12+, FIRST FOUR (1 / 3, 5 / F / 3, 5) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 2: Next event is another Listed event, for the three year olds, this time over 1400m so around the bend. And we see the return of ROYAL SYMPHONY who couldn’t have been more impressive in first prep when 3/3 wins by an accumulative total of 11.4 lengths and never less than 3.3L. Actually think the price is decent @ $2.40+ with CROWNBET given the form on the board and as a result happy to keep things simple on a primary WIN only basis. Main danger MURAAHIB who had excuses last time and you’d expect to improve further here second up. Remember the money back for 2nd/3rd (up to $50) for races 1 - 5 (see banner above) so definitely extremely applicable here for additional insurance.
SUGGEST: ROYAL SYMPHONY (WIN) @ $2.40+, FIRST FOUR (4 / 1 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 65%)
Race 3: Yet another Listed event, this time for those 4YO+ over 1400m. Good, competitive race and plenty of legitimate winning chances. I’ve always been a big MR SNEAKY fan and don’t see any reason to jump off here, especially with a big drop of 6kg in the weights for a dominant 2.5L win against several same rivals here. Precocious and most definitely still on an upward spiral. Primary WIN only play at $3.25+ with BET365. Then, also want a play on SNITZSON at $8+ with most operators. Super first up run, gets in nicely at the weights, might need a touch of luck from barrier 2 (depending how track is playing) but another I have a lot of time for an doubt we’ve seen the best him either. Main dangers THEANSWERMYFRIEND, CHOCOLATE HOLIC and PURE PRIDE who is capable although we haven’t seen best for a little while. Remember the money back for 2nd/3rd (up to $50) for races 1 - 5 (see banner above) so definitely extremely applicable here for additional insurance.
SUGGEST: MR SNEAKY (WIN - PRIMARY) @ $3.25+, SNITZSON (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $8+, FIRST FOUR (4, 13, 14 / 6, 12 / F / 6, 12) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 4: Next is the Group 2 Bobby Lewis over 1200m. Another cracking race, with plenty of chances. The recent form of **SO SI BON** this preparation is impossible to miss and times don’t lie. Looks set to peak here (needs to given the class jump) and if so should be hard to beat here. Happy to play on an each way basis at $6.50+ with CENTREBET. Given form over staying distances (he’s not a stayer) says the extra 1200m should not be an issue at all. At the price, happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. And I think the wetter the better, given key rival REDKIRK WARRIOR is a query on the softer track. Main dangers definitely the Newmarket winner REDKIRK WARRIOR, LUCKY HUSSLER (has the class and speed, just a query as to how wound up first up here) and VOODOO LAD. Remember the money back for 2nd/3rd (up to $50) for races 1 - 5 (see banner above) so definitely extremely applicable here for additional insurance.
SUGGEST: **SO SI BON** (EACH WAY) @ $6.50+, FIRST FOUR (1, 3, 4 / F / F / 9) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 5: Another Group 2, this time in the form of the Danehill Stakes for the three year olds over 1200m. And despite the quality in the field, like CATCHY @ $3.60+ (CENTREBET, SPORTSBET, BET365) who many would know is one I rate very highly. Was $4.20+ when I started doing the form, so the money has come. First up just missed for us but the run was good and will be improved here. The form guide will hopefully trip a few up by showing Craig Williams jumping off to ride key rival JUKEBOX but was a prior commitment for this specific race, hence not due to jumping off due to thinking JUKEBOX was a better chance. Or that’s my thinking anyways. Then want a secondary play on stablemate *PLUTOCRACY* at a juicy $23+ with LUXBET. Actually ties in very nicely with JUKEBOX, getting slight weight swing for last start narrow defeat about a month ago. Given the odds discrepancy, happy to play as simply looks over the odds. And at the price, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main danger the unbeaten JUKEBOX who has obviously done nothing wrong, LIMESTONE and BOOKER, but doesn’t end there. Remember the money back for 2nd/3rd (up to $50) for races 1 - 5 (see banner above) so definitely extremely applicable here for additional insurance.
SUGGEST: CATCHY (WIN / EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $3.60+, *PLUTOCRACY* (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $23+, FIRST FOUR (2, 10, 11 / 6, 8 / F / 6, 8) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 6: First leg of the quaddie is another Group 2, this time for the mares over 1400m. Such a tough race. Took me ages to come to a conclusion here and still not necessarily with a great deal of confidence. Have landed with I AM A STAR at $4.80+ (BET365) who is technically the best weighted runner given over $1M in prizemoney far superior to all other runners here. Drops down from Group 1 to contest here, drawn ideally and shouldn’t have any excuses. Also want something on JENNIFER LYNN at a tidy $16+ with CENTREBET. First up return was good and is actually unbeaten second up (1 start, 1 win). Didn’t seem to be at best last prep, after very impressive previous prep, but decent break might have done the trick. Main dangers SWAMPLAND, OREGON’S DAY, SCHISM, LOVANI and WRITTEN ERA, but realistically doesn’t end there.
SUGGEST: I AM A STAR (WIN / EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $4.80+, JENNIFER LYNN (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $16+, FIRST FOUR (3, 10, 11, 16, 17 / 1, 5 / F / 1, 5) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 7: Now for the feature, the Group 1 Makybe Diva Stakes to be run over the mile (1600m) and as good as the field is assembled, I simply cannot go past the obvious here in HARTNELL @ $1.90+ (CENTREBET) who is dodging Winx and as a result we’re seeing just how good this 7YO gelding is, although many of us already knew, despite several runner up ribbons behind the champ. I could have others over longer trips, but at the mile second up, think HARTNELL is the one. Primary WIN only play, then want something on longshot *SEABURGE* at a massive $81+ with CENTREBET and BET365. Is capable at a very high level as we have seen, and first up run was a total forgive with no runners making ground in the run. At the price, will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers BLACK HEART BART, LE ROMAIN and HUMIDOR.
SUGGEST: HARTNELL (WIN - PRIMARY) @ $1.90+, *SEABURGE* (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $81+, FIRST FOUR (2, 3, 6 / 1 / F / 11) (CONFIDENCE 45%)
Race 8: Penultimate event is a Listed JRA Trophy over 2500m. Key scratching of PACODALI changes the complexion of the race, and have landed on two I am finding it very hard to split. The two in question are **ALMANDIN** @ $5+ (most operators) and YOGI at $9+ with UBET. The first needs no introduction, the reigning Melbourne Cup winner who was simply sensational first up from a break. Stays at same weight (61kg), so shouldn’t be a major concern. At the price, happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day and as an extra special bonus, CrownBet have agreed to extend their run 2nd/3rd and get money back in bonus bets offer to Dungeon followers for this selection also. See additional detail at the bottom of the screen, beneath the summary for further details. Then, on the flipside an up and comer, who is jumping in grade here, however Weir has a knack of progressing these types through the grades perfectly and hopefully has timed this shift in grade beautifully also. Happy to simply play the two, with not much between the rest of the field.
SUGGEST: **ALMANDIN** (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $5+, YOGI (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $9+, FIRST FOUR (F / 1, 12 / F / 1, 12) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 9: We finish with an open event over 1700m and a wide open race to finish with. Like top weight AMOVATIO here at $11+ (SPORTSBET, BET365), while I am disappointed RIYADH didn’t get a run as I was keen at a big price. AMOVATIO is an underrated galloper in my opinion, always up in the weights given early success, proven in very good grades of racing, however style of racing does require luck in running. Looks well suited here, is used to carrying 60.5kg, however once again the barrier (15) will require luck in running. Throw a blanket over many others in a wide, open finish, although AMELIE’S STAR should be in the mix but has been well found in the market.
SUGGEST: AMOVATIO (EACH WAY) @ $11+, FIRST FOUR (F / 3 / F / 1) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Average odds a juicy $12.83+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: SO SI BON @ $6.50+, ALMANDIN @ $5+
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: PLUTOCRACY @ $23+, SEABURGE @ $81+
Flemington SPECIAL – BEST VALUE – Race 8 No. 1 ALAMANDIN
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*CrownBet T&Cs apply to any Bonus Bet credited. This exclusive offer only available to members of ASP Dungeon. Excludes Residents of NSW & SA. CrownBet members must place a WIN only Fixed Odds bet on ALMANDIN in Race 8 at Flemington, Saturday 16 September 2017. CrownBet will match your Fixed Odds Win Bet up to $50 with a Bonus Bet if ALMANDIN finishes 2nd or 3rd. 18+ Gamble Responsibly.