SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 16, 2016
Racing at RANDWICK with fine weather again, penetrometer reading 4.95, hence currently looking at a GOOD (3) surface.
RAIL: +9M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to ROYAL RANDWICK with the rail out +9M. You’d normally assume a leaders track, however the Sydney tracks have not necessarily played as you would expect in recent times, so we could simply get a nice, even track. If there is an advantage you would assume on pace, given GOOD (3) surface and rail position. Be sure to keep a close eye on the track and how it’s playing in the early races for best guide.
Note: Be sure to take advantage of the promo on offer with CROWNBET at Randwick today with money back (in matched bonus bets) up to $50 if your selection runs 2nd or 3rd in races 1-5 below.
Race 1: We start with the Class 3 TAB Highway over 1000m. Tough start, with many chances, as the market suggests, but slight lean here towards OAKFIELD TIME at $4.60+ with most operators. Has the runs on the board, is proven/has been competitive in similar races in town before, and the added big bonus of the best in the business Hugh Bowman aboard. Scared stiff of SHE KNOWS who is first up here and has been very well backed in early markets. Doesn’t end there, plenty of realistic chances but I’ll play around the two. Remember the money back for 2nd/3rd (up to $50) for races 1 - 5 (see banner above) so definitely extremely applicable here for additional insurance.
SUGGEST: OAKFIELD TIME (EACH WAY) @ $4.60+, FIRST FOUR (10 / F / F / 5) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 2: Next event is a benchmark 90 over the mile (1600m). EMBLEY got us the chocolates last time at a nice each way price and although a little shorter here, still an each way proposition at $5+ with most operators. Ideal scenario would be being able to dictate up front with minimal pressure (which should occur) and any advantage to on pace runners would only assist. Throw a blanket over the rest, in another even affair. Remember the money back for 2nd/3rd (up to $50) for races 1 - 5 (see banner above) so definitely extremely applicable here for additional insurance.
SUGGEST: EMBLEY (EACH WAY) @ $5+ (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 3: Now for the first of six black type races, starting with the Listed Heritage Stakes for the three year olds over 1100m. Godolphin / James Cummings obviously hold a very strong hand here three of the favourites, however just seems to be taking time to transition and until I see consistent winning results, I am just going to tread a little carefully with the Godolphin runners that are on the way up. As a result, going to run with **SINGLE BULLET** here at $5+ with CENTREBET. Has run some very good races in short career and only two flops (last two runs) were at the very highest level in Group 1s on bottomless heavy tracks. Has had a spell since and can remind us of early form here. Actually happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main dangers the Godolphin trio of VIRIDINE, MALAHAT and MARSUPIAL, as well as GOODFELLA first up at a price ($16+). Remember the money back for 2nd/3rd (up to $50) for races 1 - 5 (see banner above) so definitely extremely applicable here for additional insurance.
SUGGEST: **SINGLE BULLET** (EACH WAY) @ $5+, FIRST FOUR (2, 3, 6, 7 / F / 2, 3, 6, 7 / 1) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 4: Next is the Group 3 Bill Ritchie to be run over 1400m.Want to back COMIN’ THROUGH as he’s one of my faves and I rate very highly, but need to take the emotion out of it and go with my head, which is tell me he’s a risk today at the very short price ($2.20 with most) from barrier 7 (moves to 6 from 7 post scratchings). Can definitely win, but is going to need some luck and a smart Walker ride, so just at the price, inclined to lean towards stablemate TOM MELBOURNE @ $3.10+ (most operators) who is simply a new horse now in the Waller stable. Can’t believe I’m tipping TOM MELBOURNE of all horses in a 1400m event against the likes of COMIN’ THROUGH but I am as past two runs have been nothing short of sensational. Took Happy Clapper to beat him last time and some are giving that galloper a chance to knock off Winx in a Group 1 today. Should be hard to beat. Main danger COMIN’ THROUGH, expect the winner to come from one or the other. Note, no third dividend. Remember the money back for 2nd/3rd (up to $50) for races 1 - 5 (see banner above) so definitely extremely applicable here for additional insurance.
SUGGEST: TOM MELBOURNE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.10+, EXACTA (COMIN’ THROUGH / TOM MELBOURNE) (CONFIDENCE 45%)
Race 5: Another Group 2, this time the Tea Rose Stakes for the three year old fillies over 1400m. Good race as you’d expect, but also do think there are two standouts (just as the market suggests) in the form of TULIPS and CHAMPAGNE CUDDLES, both pretty much at level odds around the $3.40 - $3.50 mark. I’m a TULIP fan, so leaning her way @ $3.40+ (most operators), and also drawn better so arguably needing a little less luck in the run, but we know how that can change quickly once they jump. Primary play TULIPS, with the main danger obviously CHAMPAGNE CUDDLES. I’d be sticking with the two only for early quaddies, etc. Remember the money back for 2nd/3rd (up to $50) for races 1 - 5 (see banner above) so definitely extremely applicable here for additional insurance.
SUGGEST: TULIPS (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.40+, FIRST FOUR (2 / F / 1 / F) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 6: First leg of the quaddie is the first NSW Group 1 of the Spring and sees the superstar WINX aiming for 20 in a row. We’ve obviously said with extremely high confidence to play WINX past couple, which is not rocket science, but just given the past couple and a tough run last time, I’m not so confident in simply “putting in and taking out” at $1.09 with most operators. Obvious one out option for quaddie, multiples and she should be winning comfortably, but not anything crazy from a standalone WIN only investment. As a result, will be leaving this one alone and simply kicking back, topping up a beverage and kicking the superstar mare home for what will hopefully be 20-in-a-row!
SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE, WINX IN MULTIPLES/QUADDIE (CONFIDENCE 0%)
Race 7: Next is the Group 2 Shorts over 1100m and an intriguing race, including the return of the Grey Flash CHAUTAUQUA. As long as they don’t go too hard up front, then think REDZEL will be very hard to beat here at $2.25+ with LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU and BETSTAR. Flying at the moment, running very quick time and over this shorter trip prefer REDZEL to the Grey Flash and others. Many legitimate winning chances elsewhere, but keeping this simple with REDZEL on a WIN only basis unless you can manage to snag $1.50+ the place which would be doubtful.
SUGGEST: REDZEL (WIN) @ $2.25+ (CONFIDENCE 50%)
Race 8: Penultimate event is the last of the features in the form of the Group 3 Kingston Town Stakes over 2000m. And need to run with one I have been spruiking for a while and one we have had some great luck with in the past (won for us at $15 in Melbourne earlier this year). The runner in question is LIFE LESS ORDINARY at $3.80+ with UBET and CROWNBET. Has done absolutely nothing run since landing in Australia and think the Metropolitan and dare I say it (call me crazy) even a Melbourne Cup is not out of the question. Scared stiff of stablemate ANTONIO GIUSEPPE who will need a touch of luck from the gate, CHOCANTE and MEGABLAST who has let punters down in Australia, however obviously has the potential when everything goes right.
SUGGEST: LIFE LESS ORDINARY (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.80+, FIRST FOUR (3, 6, 10 / F / 3, 6, 10 / 11) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 9: We finish with a benchmark 84 over 1200m. Not many would have missed the brilliant trial of **I THOUGHT SO**, beating home the likes of Fell Swoop without being pushed and as a result, that is obviously a fantastic lead in to a benchmark 84 here. Happy to play on a primary each way basis at $4.20+ with most operators. At the price, happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day to finish off the day and as an extra special bonus, CrownBet have agreed to extend their run 2nd/3rd and get money back in bonus bets offer to Dungeon followers for this selection also. See additional detail at the bottom of the screen, beneath the summary for further details. Then, also want a secondary play on DAGNY at a tidy $15+ with most operators. Another first up from a break, won first up last time over this same distance and although some were disappointed by last prep, did end up with 2 x 1st, 1 x 2nd from 5 starts. Nothing wrong with that and is proven both on top of the ground as well as on a much softer track. Great each way price and will actually make a standalone BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day given price on offer. Throw a blanket over the rest in an even affair.
SUGGEST: **I THOUGHT SO** (EACH WAY) @ $4.20+, *DAGNY* (EACH WAY) @ $15+, FIRST FOUR (F / 5, 12 / F / 5, 12) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Average odds $5.15+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: SINGLE BULLET @ $5+, I THOUGHT SO @ $4.20+
*BEST LONGSHOT*: DAGNY @ $15+
Flemington SPECIAL – BEST VALUE – Race 9 No. 5 I THOUGHT SO
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*CrownBet T&Cs apply to any Bonus Bet credited. This exclusive offer only available to members of ASP Dungeon. Excludes Residents of NSW & SA. CrownBet members must place a WIN only Fixed Odds bet on I THOUGHT SO in Race 9 at Randwick, Saturday 16 September 2017. CrownBet will match your Fixed Odds Win Bet up to $50 with a Bonus Bet if I THOUGHT SO finishes 2nd or 3rd. 18+ Gamble Responsibly.