2 September 2017 (Group 2 racing at Royal Randwick)

PUNTING DUNGEON

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ROYAL RANDWICK

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 2, 2017

 

Racing at ROYAL RANDWICK with fine weather forecast, penetrometer 4.98, hence currently looking at a GOOD (3) surface.

RAIL: +6M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to RANDWICK with the rail out +6M. Hoping for even track where all runners get their chance (pace dependant), but as always, be sure to keep a close eye on early races for best guide.

 

Race 1: We start with a benchmark 75 for the three year olds over 1300m. Very tough start, every runners with a legitimate claim as illustrated by the market with all runners $13 or less. Given I don’t see much at all between them all am going to play two at the longest prices in ALBUMIN at $13+ (most operators) and DISSOLUTION at $11+ with LUXBET. Both have done very little wrong in short career and actually get in okay at the weights for recent racing. Throw a blanket over the rest, every runner can win.

SUGGEST: ALBUMIN (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $13+, DISSOLUTION (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $11+, FIRST FOUR (F / 1, 4 / F / 1, 4) (CONFIDENCE 25%)

 

Race 2: Next is a benchmark 84 over 2000m. Would’ve been all over VAUCLUSE BAY at a nice each way price, however word is will be saved for next week so stay tuned for then. In saying that, still think Waller has the strongest and most likely winning hand here with three others runners in the race. UP ‘N’ ROLLING looks the hardest to beat and will be, however not so keen on the $1.55 on offer. Stepping up to 2000m is a slight concern and at the skinny price happy to leave for the most part, besides possibly a one out early quaddie leg and/or saving multiples. Instead, think stablemate **MULTIFACETS** is a better betting proposition on an each way basis at $7.50+ with LUXBET and UBET. At the price, happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day.

SUGGEST: **MULTIFACETS** (EACH WAY) @ $7.50+, FIRST FOUR (F / 8 / F / 4), (8 / F / F / 4) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 3: Now for a benchmark 83 over the mile (1600m) and this is very tricky, especially with minimal pace on paper and pace/tactics set to be key. Assuming pace (or lack thereof) pans out as expected (there is always the chance of over-compensation) then happy to play around the two at the top of the weights in EMBLEY at $5.50+ (CROWNBET, BET365) and *ZIN ZAN EDDIE* at $26+ (BET365). Both have big weights for a reason and that’s because are more than capable at this level and hoping both park behind the leader (most likely MIAMI DADE) but prove too good in the straight, but most importantly hopefully hold off all others expected to settle back and finish strong. At the price, happy to make *ZIN ZAN EDDIE* a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers MIAMI DADE, MORE TO GAIN, JAMINZAH, MURAQABA.

SUGGEST: EMBLEY (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $5.50+, *ZIN ZAN EDDIE* (EACH WAY) @ $21+, FIRST FOUR (3, 4, 5, 8 / 1, 2 / F / 1, 2) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 4: Now for the Class 3 TAB Highway Handicap and COUNT CUMANI looks the one to beat here at $3.20+ (CENTRBET) after smashing the clocklast time running a hot 1.09 flat over 1200m at Ipswich. On that same day, rival here COLLINS CREEK won a race over the same track/distance, clocking 1.11.92, almost 3 seconds slower which is massive. Then, also want something on top weight *LAST TRY WINS* at a generous $19+ with LUXBET. Always runs well, and gets some weight relief to try and turn the tables on key rival here MY TAGOSON. Will need the pace on, but at the price happy to take the gamble. At the price, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers MY TAGOSON, FRATERNATER (at odds) and SCHEDULE.

SUGGEST: COUNT CUMANI (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.20+, *LAST TRY WINS* (EACH WAY) @ $19+, FIRST FOUR (4, 5, 13 / 1, 9 / F / 1, 9) (CONFIDENCE 40%)

 

Race 5: Now for the first of the features, starting with the Group 3 Concorde Stakes over 1000m and incredibly (and somewhat disappointedly) only a field of 4. Tactical affair and although I concede SPIETH @ $2.60+ (CENTREBET) is a touch vulnerable first up over 1000m, the small field should ensure he’s not far behind main danger REDZEL and then hopefully the ‘best horse’ rule kicks in and class prevails. Love this galloper, always have, rate very highly and as a result slight lean on class/ability alone. Will only be better later. Note, no third dividend. All others, including rank outside THE MONSTAR can win.

SUGGEST: SPIETH (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $2.60+ (CONFIDENCE 40%) 

 

Race 6: First leg of the quaddie is the Group 2 Furious Stakes for the three year old fillies over 1200m. Sticking with FORMALITY here at $2.65+ (WILLIAM HILL) after we were keen last time (and shocked to get $4+) and despite the narrow margin, think improvement second up coupled with a 1kg swing in the weights (both CHAMPAGNE CUDDLES and ALIZEE go up 1kg, FORMALITY remains at 56kg) can hopefully prove the difference once again. The others will no doubt improve also and any good/bad luck in running could be crucial, but with even luck in running happy to stick with this good filly. Main dangers the two mentioned in CHAMPAGNE CUDDLES and ALIZEE, and SEANNIE. Note, no third dividend.

SUGGEST: FORMALITY (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $2.65+, FIRST FOUR (F / 3, 4, 5 / 1 / F) (CONFIDENCE 45%)

 

Race 7: Now for the Group 2 Chelmsford Stakes over the mile (1600m) aka Winx going for 19 straight! The superstar gave us all something special to experience last time to keep her amazing streak intact and barring a similar disaster at the gates/in the run, should be simply too good for these. WINX @ $1.12 (BET365) the obvious play on a WIN only basis once again. Just want to draw attention to another runner here who I don’t expect to necessarily do a great here (barrier 11 makes the job tough), however LIFE LESS ORDINARY is one we have had luck with in the past and was absolutely brilliant last time behind Comin’ Through who we backed but had this guy as the danger and did he give all and sundry a scare. Will be heading to the Metropolitan and call me crazy reckon he’s a longshot play in the big one, the Melbourne Cup, but obviously no mean feat to even get a run. He’s one we will be following through the Spring, so let’s hope he doesn’t do anything too exciting today as we want a price when it’s time to pounce which might well be next start. This race isn’t a betting proposition for most, but that shouldn’t stop you sitting back and admiring a super star in action.

SUGGEST: WINX (WIN) @ $1.12+ (CONFIDENCE 95%) 

 

Race 8: Penultimate event is the last of the features, the Group 2 Tramway Stakes over 1400m. Good race with plenty of chances. Shocked by the price of one here in **MCREERY** at a very juicy $15+ with BET365. Big overs and at the price, a standout BEST VALUE bet of the day. Ticks so many boxed from Waller, Bowman, expected run in transit, first up form, distance, track and class. Super each way price. Then also want a play on ECUADOR who we’ve rated for a little while now and seems to keep slipping under the radar, although they haven’t missed here at $3.80+ with most operators. Just missed behind a filly called Winx last time although I think she may have had some issues early in the run, regardless 0.6L defeat by the champ is good in anyone’s book. Legitimate Group 1 competitive performer. Main dangers HAPPY CLAPPER (love this horse also, but prefer second up), INVINCIBLE GEM (did go past Le Romain comfortably last time which was impressive) and TOM MELBOURNE who looks a new horse with Waller and was terribly unlucky first up. Great race.

SUGGEST: **MCREERY** (EACH WAY) @ $15+, ECUADOR (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.80, FIRST FOUR (1, 7, 9 / 3, 6 / F / 3, 6) (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

Race 9: We finish with a benchmark 95 over 1400m. Tricky finish, with once again minimal pace on paper, so some initiative could go a long way for a runner who is adaptable being ridden positively or negatively. A positive ride could pay dividends. Going with who I arguably consider to be the ‘best horse’ in WASHINGTON HEIGHTS @ $2.10+ (CROWNBET) who I’m hoping doesn’t get ridden for luck like last time (was a terrible watch and not one of Tim Clarke’s better rides). From the good gate can be ridden much more positively (a position the gelding was accustomed to in Hong Kong and if so should be very hard to beat here. Main dangers ROCKET COMMANDER and VELADERO who should both take prominent positions closer to the pace which should prove advantageous for the reasons outlined.  

SUGGEST: WASHINGTON HEIGHTS (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $2.10+, FIRST FOUR (4, 10 / 7 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 50%) 

 

SUMMARY:

Average odds $7.16+ per suggested runner!

** BEST VALUE **: MULTIFACETS @ $7.50+, MCREERY @ $15+

*BEST LONGSHOTS*: ZIN ZAN EDDIE @ $21+, LAST TRY WINS @ $19+

#happypunting