SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 23, 2017
Racing at CAULFIELD with 0 - 1mm forecast (60% chance), so currently looking at a GOOD (3) surface.
RAIL: +9M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to CAULFIELD with the rail out +9M, after it was out +6M three weeks ago. Hoping for even track where all runners get their chance (pace dependant), but as always, be sure to keep a close eye on early races for best guide.
Note: Be sure to take advantage of the promo on offer with CROWNBET at Caulfield today with stake back (in rewards points) up to $50 if your selection runs 2nd or 3rd in races 6-9.
Race 1: We start with an open event for the three year old fillies over 1400m. Disappointed by the scratching of MISS BELISA who I thought was a chance at a juicy price, but not to be. As a result, finding it hard to split two here in BLONDIE and SANADAAT. Given the better draw, and price, will lean in the camp of BLONDIE at $6+ with BET365. Underrated galloper for mine, who has done little wrong in career to date and importantly always seems to be over the odds. Despite 2 x wins and 1 x 2nd, has never started shorter than $11, hence if trained by another the $6 would be sub $4 in my opinion. Happy to play there, ahead of a secondary play on longshot *PAGEANTRY* at a big $41+ with each of BET365, LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU and BETSTAR. Needs to lift, but can make a case around top pick BLONDIE from two starts back when beaten 3.8L however meets 2kg better at the weights. That doesn’t normally equate to turning the tables, but at a difference of $6 v $41 happy to take the punt. At the price, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main danger SANADAAT who just needs a touch of luck from barrier 11.
SUGGEST: BLONDIE (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $6+, *PAGEANTRY* (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $41+, FIRST FOUR (6 / F / F / 5, 10) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 2: Next is an event for the three year olds over the mile (1600m). Wide open race for mine, despite three in particular dominating the market in ESHTIRAAK, CLIFF’S EDGE and SUNQUEST. All very good chances, but think better value lies with a couple in double figures odds, so instead of all our eggs in one basket, will play a couple at double figure prices. The two in question are NISTAAN at $15+ (BET365) and WATCHMESPIN at $16+ also with BET365. NISTAAN has done little wrong and I like it when they go away for an easy kill at the provincials and return to the city where previously running well, without winning. WATCHMESPIN similarly has done little wrong, winning past two and although a step up in grade, is progressing through the grades well. Main dangers the only three at single figure prices in ESHTIRAAK, CLIFF’S EDGE and SUNQUEST.
SUGGEST: NISTAAN (EACH WAY) @ $15+, WATCHMESPIN (EACH WAY) @ $16+, FIRST FOUR (1, 2, 6 / 4, 7 / F / 4, 7), (1, 2, 6 / F / 1, 2, 6 / 4, 7) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 3: Now for a benchmark 78 over 1800m. SIN TO WIN looks the obvious here and should be hard to beat at $3.60+ with PALMERBET and CROWNBET. Both runs in Australia have been very good and looks more than ready to head into the winner’s stalls for the first time in Australia. Did win last two in NZ before heading across and has impressively never missed a place with 3 wins, 1 x 2nd and 3 x 3rd from 7 starts. The clear cut one to beat. Then, want a secondary play on ELECTRIC FUSION at a juicy $19+ with LUXBET, UBET. Been racing consistently without winning of late, has drawn the carpark (hence wouldn’t be surprised if we get even better odds), however not a great deal of pace up front, so should hopefully be able to cross relatively easily, settle on pace and if so, can run a cheeky race at odds. Main dangers EBEDIYIN, GOODWILL and ANAHEIM.
SUGGEST: SIN TO WIN (WIN / EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $3.60+, ELECTRIC FUSION (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $19+, FIRST FOUR (3, 4, 8 / 7, 11 / F / 7, 11), (3, 4, 8 / F / 3, 4, 8 / 7, 11) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 4: 1100m event for the three year olds and hard to go past I DID IT AGAIN here at $2.60+ with CENTREBET. Couldn’t have been any more impressive on debut, meets a similar field here and gets a handy 2kg off compared with debut win. Looks to have some real potential, but I guess we’ll find out here. Then, also want a secondary play in the camp of ARCTIC ANGEL at a generous $21+ with BET365. Wasn’t far away last time and if able to dictate up front or near to, could give some real cheek in the straight. Main dangers SUPERHARD, COUNTERPLAY ($17+) and BANDIPUR.
SUGGEST: I DID IT AGAIN (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $2.60+, ARCTIC ANGEL (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $21+, FIRST FOUR (1, 6, 12 / 4, 11 / F / 4, 11) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 5: Next is an open event over 1400m and like **REVOLVING DOOR** here at $4.25+ (BET365) after a plethora of legitimate excuses throughout this prep and time for a change of luck to return to the winner’s stalls. Looks the ideal race and from barrier 6 should finally get the luck required. Also, happy to have a secondary play at odds on PAY UP BRO at a juicy $31+ with BET365. Is more than capable at his best and last prep proved that he was more than capable at these shorter trips. Main dangers DUKE OF BRUNSWICK, SO SI BON and HERE TO THERE. Unfortunately, no special BEST VALUE offer with CrownBet today for this race.
SUGGEST: **REVOLVING DOOR** (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $4.25+, PAY UP BRO (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $31+, FIRST FOUR (2, 3, 4 / F / 2, 3, 4 / 6, 12) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 6: First leg of the quaddie is the Listed Testa Rossa Stakes over 1200m. BRAVE SMASH the obvious here and will be hard to beat, but can’t get overly enthused by the $1.80 on offer with most operators. Actually not brilliantly weighted against rivals who mathematically have every chance of turning tables on face value, although the class factor is in his favour. As a result, instead prefer to play WELL SPRUNG at $12+ (BET365, SPORTSBET) who I thought was very good last start against key rivals here when wide without cover the trip, but kept finding the line when entitled to fold. Also gets handy weight relief to assist further. Happy to leave it there, with main dangers BRAVE SMASH and KEEN ARRAY. Remember the stake back offer for 2nd/3rd (up to $50) for races 6 - 9 (see banner above) so definitely extremely applicable here for additional insurance.
SUGGEST: WELL SPRUNG (EACH WAY) @ $12+, FIRST FOUR (1, 3 / F / 1, 3 / 7) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 7: Next is the Group 3 Naturalism Stakes over 2000m. Good, open, competitive race, but don’t see any reason to be jumping off the back of **SAMOVARE** at $9+ (UBET). We were on last time at the shorter price, when getting a long way back, but coming around them like a good horse. Gets in very well at the weights on the minimum (54kg) given low rating and they will be wanting a win here to try and sneak into the Caulfield Cup. Happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Then, want a secondary play on SECOND BULLET at a generous $31+ with UBET and BET365. Consistent galloper, who needs to step up here, but don’t see any reason why he can’t. And at the price, happy to take the punt and find out. Main dangers STAMPEDE, AMELIE’S STAR, BIG DUKE and ABBEY MARIE. But believe it or not, doesn’t end there in a deep race. Remember the stake back offer for 2nd/3rd (up to $50) for races 6 - 9 (see banner above) so definitely extremely applicable here for additional insurance.
SUGGEST: **SAMOVARE** (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $9+, SECOND BULLET (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $31+, FIRST FOUR (3, 6, 9, 10 / F / 3, 6, 9, 10 / 11, 15), (3, 6, 9, 10 / 11, 15 / F / 11, 15) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 8: Penultimate event is the Group 3 Boost Stakes for the mares over 1200m. Sticking with one I’ve always rates and has been very good to followers over the journey despite missing last time, when given a simply “terrible ride” by Williams and given no chance. More than happy to go again with FUHRYK at $5.50+ (most operators) and given the defeat we get a better price than expected. Then, want a secondary play on DEJA BLUE at a massive $81+ with CENTREBET. Might be out of her class, but is a consistent galloper and is more than capable of producing a cheeky run fresh. Look big overs and at the price will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers RAVI, MISS ROCK and NOW OR LATER, but again doesn’t end there. Remember the stake back offer for 2nd/3rd (up to $50) for races 6 - 9 (see banner above) so definitely extremely applicable here for additional insurance.
SUGGEST: FUHRYK (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $5.50, *DEJA BLUE* (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $81+, FIRST FOUR (6, 7, 12 / F / 6, 7, 12 / 5, 14) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 9: We finish with a benchmark 90 for the mares over 1400m. Disappointed by the scratching of FRAGONARD who I would have been keen on here, but not to be. As a result, by default now have PRINCESS OF QUEENS on top here at $10+ with CENTREBET. Then, want a WIN only saving play on PETITION @ $4.80+ (CROWNBET, PALMERBET, UBET) who given the big money for JAMAICAN RAIN, gets out to a price where we can play the two. Has been ultra consistent in short career to date so still very much on the upward spiral, or so it seems. Main danger JAMAICAN RAIN. We’ll leave it there to finish things off. Remember the stake back offer for 2nd/3rd (up to $50) for races 6 - 9 (see banner above) so definitely extremely applicable here for additional insurance.
SUGGEST: PRINCESS OF QUEENS (EACH WAY) @ $10+, PETITION (WIN) @ $4.80+, FIRST FOUR (13 / 9, 11 / F / 9, 11) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Average odds $18.40+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: REVOLVING DOOR @ $4.25+, SAMOVARE @ $9+
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: PAGEANTRY @ $41+, DEJA BLUE @ $81+