SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 23, 2016
Racing at ROSEHILL with ‘hot’ weather forecast with 33 degrees expected. Penetrometer reading 4.74, hence currently looking at a GOOD (4) surface.
RAIL: +3M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to ROSEHILL with the rail out +3M. You’d normally assume an advantage to those on the pace/nearer the fence, however the Sydney tracks have bucked this trend a little in recent times, so fingers crossed at worst, a nice, even track. If there is an advantage you would assume on pace, given GOOD (4) surface and rail position. Be sure to keep a close eye on the track and how it’s playing in the early races for best guide.
Race 1: We start with a benchmark 74 over 1300m for the three year olds. PARET looks a colt with ample potential, however will be forced to get back from the bad gate (8 of 8). Has been smashed from $ into $2.40 so does look to be rock bottom odds considering the barrier/track pattern situation, however have no doubt ‘natural ability’ might be enough to overcome them both. Instead think better value lies with MOLTEN at $9.50+ with CENTREBET and LUXBET. Has won past two, but obviously jumps in grade here, however important drawn the inside gate and is expected to lead. If not pressured too much (especially given the main danger will most likely be at the rear), then can hopefully try and pitch a break on the turn and be hard to catch. Main dangers PARET and joint equal favourite BEAU GESTE. Note, no third dividend.
SUGGEST: MOLTEN (EACH WAY) @ $9.50+, FIRST FOUR (2, 5 / 2, 5 / 3 / F) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 2: Then straight into a Group 3, in the form of the Colin Stephens Quality over a mile and a half (2400m). Small field of five, with four runners between $2.2 - $5 in the market, so not necessarily easy. In saying that, **ADMIRAL JELLO** is the one for me here at $5.50+ with UBET and BET365. Missed behind key rival BROADSIDE last time, however gets critical 3kg swing in the weights to try and offset the 1.8L margin, which I think can happen and we are also getting more than double the price with BROADSIDE the $2.25 favourite. At the price, happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main danger BROADSIDE who should get a fairly soft lead up front. Note, no third dividend.
SUGGEST: **ADMIRAL JELLO** (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $5.50+, EXACTA (BROADSIDE / ADMIRAL JELLO) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 3: Next is the Class 2 TAB Highway Handicap over 1500m. Tough race, unless you think the red hot fave DON’T GIVE A DAMN will be too good at the skinny $1.80 price tag. I have no interest at that price and instead happy to play BONSLEY at $12+ with CENTREBET. Finally draws a barrier after jumping from 10, 10, 11 at past three starts which isn’t ideal for a gallopers who likes to settle on pace, without leading. From barrier 5 can hopefully get the 1-1 and give a great site at a very nice price. Main danger the obvious in DON’T GIVE A DAMN and throw a blanket over the rest.
SUGGEST: BONSLEY (EACH WAY) @ $12+, FIRST FOUR (F / 2 / F / 7) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 4: Next is a benchmark 82 to be run over 2000m and safe to say Waller has a very strong hand in this one. Despite conceding UP ‘N’ ROLLING will be hard to beat, I think the better value lies with **ALWARD** who returns to the better suited 2000m here after dropping to 1800m last time which was always a query. $4.40+ with BET365 is decent enough value here as opposed to the skinny $1.95 for the stablemate. At the price, happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. That’ll do.
SUGGEST: **ALWARD** (EACH WAY) @ $4.40+ (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 5: Now we really getting into the thick of things with the Group 2 Shannon Stakes, run over 1500m. Very competitive race with plenty of legitimate winning chances. Slight lean IMPOSING LASS at $6+ with UBET, despite the wide gate. There doesn’t look to be a stack of pace, hence need Tim Clarke to be positive and ensure she gets across comfortably enough and as long as that happens, should be right in the finish here with a very low weight. Main dangers, stablemate LUBITON and DAWN WALL, but doesn’t end there.
SUGGEST: IMPOSING LASS (EACH WAY) @ $6+, FIRST FOUR (8, 9 / F / F / 11) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 6: First leg of the quaddie is the Group 3 Gloaming Stakes for the three year olds over 1800m. Tough race, many step up in trip for the first time as you’d expect with this age group so key piece of the puzzle is who will most improve over the longer trip, regardless of what’s been happening over the shorter trips. Slight lean AUGUSTUS here at a very tidy $9.50+ with UBET and CENTREBET. Has decent enough form, but needs to step up to the plate in this grade as is the case with many runners here. Win last time hopefully the perfect tonic to make it back to back victories. Then, also want something on THY KINGDOM COME for similar reasons at an even better $12+ with most operators. Rate John Thompson in these types of races when runners step up over longer trips. Main dangers led by the Godolphin duo of ASTORIA and SANCTIONED, but race doesn’t end there.
SUGGEST: AUGUSTUS (EACH WAY) @ $9.50+, THY KINGDOM COME (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $12+, FIRST FOUR (1, 3 / 7, 8 / F / 7, 8), (F / 1, 3 / 1, 3 / 7, 8) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 7: Now for the feature, the Group 1 Golden Rose for the three year olds over 1400m and a cracking race as you’d expect. I’m a huge fan of MENARI as many would know and we’ve had plenty of luck accordingly (including last two runs/wins), however do have a query today from the sticky gate (11, into 10 now from 13). As is the case for many here, with plenty of pace on paper and many key chances drawn wide. As a result, luck sure to play a part in the result here, so instead of going hard at one, am actually going to spread bets across three at big odds instead. The three in question are *CHAUFFEUR*, DRACARYS both @ $26+ (BET365) and right down the bottom CHAMPAGNE CUDDLES at $16+ with both CENTREBET and UBET. All expected to sit behind what will hopefully be a hectic tempo and *CHAUFFEUR* and CHAMPAGNE CUDDLES in particular drawn the nice middle gates to not be stuck on the fence behind a wall of horses, but also not drawn too wide to need to go to the rear. At the price, happy to make *CHAUFFEUR* a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers MENARI (best horse), MERCHANT NAVY (flying, will just need luck from barrier 2 behind a wall of horses) and PARIAH, also drawn wide and will need luck.
SUGGEST: *CHAUFFEUR* (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $26+, CHAMPAGNE CUDDLES (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $16+, DRACARYS (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $26+, FIRST FOUR (2, 3, 7 / F / 2, 3, 7 / 6, 9, 14) (CONFIDENCE 25%)
Race 8: Penultimate event is the Group 2 Golden Pendant for the fillies and mares over 1400m. Good race, but not easy. Going to stick with BONNY O’REILLY here at $5+ with CROWNBET and CENTREBET predominately due to the gate and expected conditions. Should get the perfect run and be given every chance, which is the difference between her some arguably “better” mares in OMEI SWORD, DIXIE BLOSSOMS and DAYSEE DOOM who I think may be “better” but will need other factors to go their way, including luck in running. Expecting the winner to come from those four, from a quaddie perspective anyways. Great race as you expect from the Group mares’ races.
SUGGEST: BONNY O’REILLY (EACH WAY) @ $5+, FIRST FOUR (1, 2, 4 / F / 1, 2, 4 / 7) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 9: We finish with a benchmark 89 over 1400m. Looks a potentially tactical affair with minimal pace on paper. A bit of initiative from a jockey could prove race winning. In saying that, regardless expect ZUMBELINA to be in the right spot form the good gate and should be very hard to beat here at $2.50+ with CROWNBET and BET365. Then, a secondary longshot play on *BE LIKE DAD* at a juicy $41+ with BET365 who drops in the weights here which should assist, but does need to be improve to be competitive here. At the price, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers WAYANKA, SOUCHEZ and SIR PLUSH.
SUGGEST: ZUMBELINA (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $2.50+, *BE LIKE DAD* (EACH WAY) @ $41+, FIRST FOUR (2, 4, 7 / 5 / F / 2, 4, 7, 8) (CONFIDENCE 50%)
Average odds a juicy $13.49+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: ADMIRAL JELLO @ $5.50+, ALWARD @ $4.40+
*BEST LONGSHOT*: CHAUFFEUR @ $26+, BE LIKE DAD @ $41+