29 September 2017 (Group 1 night racing at Moonee Valley

PUNTING DUNGEON

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MOONEE VALLEY

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 29, 2017

 

Racing at MOONEE VALLEY with a 60% chance of rain (0 - 2mm), penetrometer 4.58, hence currently looking at a GOOD (4) surface.

RAIL: +4M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to MOONEE VALLEY with the rail out +4M, after being out +2M here, three weeks’ ago. The rain could change things (should it come), but have walked the track and it looks like you can do a lot worse that hug the rail with noticeably firmer footing than outside several metres. It does even out a little more in the straight, hence softer run seems to be those close/on the rail prior to the turn. As always, be sure to keep a close eye on early races for best guide, especially if rain does hit.

The scene is set for a cracking night's racing at the Valley.

The scene is set for a cracking night's racing at the Valley.

 

Race 1: We start with a set weights and penalties event for the three year old colts and geldings over 1200m. Tactics will be key with a few different options in terms of who will end up leading here. As long as KOBAYASHI @ $3.40+ (BET365) can cross from barrier 6 and get the leading rail position, then think he’ll be winning this. MURAAQEB could try and lead from barrier 1 but doesn’t necessarily have the natural gate speed, so hoping they elect to simply be right behind the leader which will not be a bad place to be. Big tip around for OVER EXPOSURE across from SA, if the comments are even half true, hard to beat. As a result, main dangers OVER EXPOSURE and MURAAQEB and will simply leave things there.

SUGGEST: KOBAYASHI (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.40+, FIRST FOUR (4, 9 / 1 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 40%)

 

Race 2: Next is a benchmark 90 over 1200m and think/hope SO YOU TOO @ $3.80+ (SPORTSBET, CROWNBET) can take advantage of barrier 1 and even if not lead, sit just behind the leader and hug the rail, being ready for a gap to open at the top of the straight. Happy to play on a primary WIN only basis, ahead of MUBAKKIR at a tidy $15+ (CENTREBET) who should be able to cross relatively comfortably from gate 7 and once again should that occur, can give a great sight at a great each way price. Then, finally want a longshot play on *TUDOR* at $91+ (UBET) who was a noted leader back in time, and should they make the decision to ride more positively here, can give some cheek at a crazy price. At the price, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day.

SUGGEST: SO YOU TOO (WIN - PRIMARY) @ $3.80+, MUBARKIR (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $15+, *TUDOR* (EACH WAY) @ $91+, FIRST FOUR (roving 4, 6, 11 / F), (F / 11 / F / 4, 6) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 3: Next is the first of the features, in the form of the Group 3 Scarborough Stakes for the three year old fillies over 1200m. Will keep this relatively short and sweet and that’s to say HOUTZEN should be winning this, with current prices of $1.55+ with CROWNBET and UBET actually a decent price. Best horse, drawn well, you’d think only bad luck has her not winning here. Primary WIN only play. Secondary saving plays to the two who have unknown ceilings at present and should both be right on the pace. The two in question are SO FAR SOKOOL at $34+ (most operators) and *ELLE GAGNE* at $41+ with LUXBET and CENTREBET. Given the bigger odds at present for the latter *ELLE GAGNE*, will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day.

SUGGEST: HOUTZEN (WIN - PRIMARY) @ $1.55+, SO FAR SOKOOL (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $34+, *ELLE GAGNE* (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $41+, FIRST FOUR (roving 1, 10, 11 / F), (F / 1 / F / 10, 11) (CONFIDENCE 75%)

 

Race 4: Next is a benchmark 84 over short 955m and decent pace on paper here, which has only been helped by some additional speed coming out, through the likes of MISS VISTA and PETITE’S REWARD. Just with the pace reduced a little (still strong), and over the shorter 955m, think SUPER TOO @ $2.60+ (most operators) can rail from barrier 1, lead, kick and hopefully hold them off late, as they will be flashing. That’ll do. Short and sweet.

SUGGEST: SUPER TOO (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $2.60+ (CONFIDENCE 40%)

Turf looking immaculate, but before the straight, the rail is currently the place to be.

Turf looking immaculate, but before the straight, the rail is currently the place to be.

Race 5: First leg of the quaddie, is another black type event and the first of four consecutive black type quaddie legs to finish a ripping night of racing with. Starting with the Group 3 JRA Cup over the infamous 2040m starting gates at Moonee Valley. Very competitive race, with plenty of chances, with pace/tactics and how tracking is playing by race 5 key. If rain dopes come, there is always the chance of the rail starting to get chopped up as the meeting progresses, hence be sure to keep a close eye on things. Actually going to spread the play here across three and stagger in line with odds on offer. The first is **ECUADOR** at a very juicy $13+ with CENTREBET significantly better than all other operators. Has been racing against top level and despite black type status here, drops in grade. Expecting to find the lead from barrier 5 and if so, should give a great sight. At the price, happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the night. The next is FOUNDATION at $6+ with CENTREBET. We were on at a huge price as our best longshot two starts back at 50/1, when running a drum, was unlucky last time, and can get back into the winner’s stall here. Happy to play on a WIN only basis given the three pronged play suggested. Finally, think SPANISH REEF can run a cheeky race at $31+ with most operators. Class is an obviously query but very consistent and will probably make own luck up front. Secondary play behind the first two mentioned. Happy to play around those three, all at good each way prices, although obviously doesn’t end there in a wide, open affair.  

SUGGEST: **ECUADOR** (EACH WAY) @ $13+, FOUNDATION (WIN) @ $6+, SPANISH REEF (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $31+, FIRST FOUR (roving 3, 6, 12 / F), (F / 3, 6, 12 / F / 3, 6, 12) (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

Race 6: Second leg of the quaddie is the Group 2 Stocks Stakes for the mares over the mile (1600m). Going to keep this short and sweet in the form of **HELL OR HIGHWATER** at $5+ with BET365. This mare has been good to us in recent times and think she can be good to us again tonight. Should be able to cross and lead with little fuss and is always tough as nails late, so will be very hard to catch. Happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main dangers I AM A STAR, LIZZIE L’AMOUR, MONTOYA’S SECRET and JENNIFER LYNN. Another very good race.

SUGGEST: **HELL OR HIGHWATER** (EACH WAY) @ $5+, FIRST FOUR (8 / F / 1 / F) (CONFIDENCE 40%)

 

Race 7: Penultimate event is the feature, in the form of the Group 1 Moir Stakes over 1000m and what a simply cracking race! Pace/tactics and luck in running is set to be key here, but based on what we have to work with on face value am leaning in the camp of HEATHERLY at $11+ with BET365 and CROWNBET. Critically drawn 1 barrier inside RUSSIAN REVOLUTION, which could allow a ‘softer’ run given track walk findings and consequently help turn the tables for last start defeat. Would need something in her favour as RUSSIAN REVOLUTION did have her measure last time at same weight scale. Then, want something on FAATINAH first up at a tidy $16+ with most operators. Almost won an Oakleigh Plate, flies fresh and although the 1000m on a good track doesn’t speak to a great strike rate, might just get some key breaks from barrier 1. Will need luck, but so will most here. Main dangers RUSSIAN REVOLUTION, SHIEDEL and SHE WILL REIGN. Cracking race!

SUGGEST: HEATHERLY (EACH WAY) @ $11+, FAATINAH (EACH WAY) @ $16+, FIRST FOUR (5, 9, 13 / F / 5, 9, 13 / 8, 11) (CONFIDENCE 30%) 

 

Race 8: Final event is the Group 2 Stutt Stakes for the three year olds over 1600m. Several legitimate winning chances, but slight lean to MASCULINO here at $5.50+ with most operators. Absolutely low flying and should get the run of the race and take out any guesswork form barrier 2. Unknown at the mile, but will be not be forced to cover any extra ground from the gate and regardless, no major concerns there. Happy to leave things there, ahead of main dangers THE MISSION, AZAZEL and SHOWTIME.  

SUGGEST: MASCULINO (EACH WAY) @ $5.50+, FIRST FOUR (1, 2, 3 / F / 1, 2, 3 / 4) (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

SUMMARY:

Average odds $18.66+ per suggested runner!

** BEST VALUE **: ECUADOR @ $13+, HELL OR HIGHWATER @ $5+

*BEST LONGSHOTS*: TUDOR @ $91+, ELLE GAGNE @ $41+

#happypunting