30 September 2017 (Group 1 racing at Royal Randwick)

PUNTING DUNGEON

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ROYAL RANDWICK

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 30, 2016

 

Racing at RANDWICK with fine weather again, penetrometer reading 4.99, hence currently looking at a GOOD (3) surface.

RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to ROYAL RANDWICK with the rail back to the TRUE position. Hoping for an even track, and no reason do think otherwise, but as always, be sure to keep a close eye on the track and how it’s playing in the early races for best guide.

 

Race 1: We start with the Listed Breeders’ Plate for the two year old colts and geldings over 1000m and all runners are on debut. As a result, plenty of guesswork but liked what I saw with BONDI at the trials and happy to put my faith in the trusty Snowden/Shinn combination at a tidy $4.80+ with most operators. Was actually $7.50+ when I started this summary late last night, so there’s been support.Nice each way price, throw a blanket over the rest. Be sure to respect late money and if looking for a way to receive real time market mover alerts, be sure to download PLUNGE, FREE app.  

SUGGEST: BONDI (EACH WAY) @ $4.80+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 2: Now for the female equivalent, the Listed Gimcrack Stakes for the two year old fillies over 1000m and once again all debutantes. Lottery, but at least we have trials to work from and from these trials have landed on three at odds to have dabbles on. The first is *CORTESTA* @ $41+ with UBET. Wasn’t pushed in trial win, needs luck from the gate but at the price happy to take the punt. At the price, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Similarly I STOLE YOUR LOVE at $51+ (CENTREBET) who wasn’t asked when runner up in trial, and then finally stablemate NOW OR NEVER at $12+ with SPORTSBET. Liked the way she hit the line after finding room. Happy to simply have a few dabbles at smaller odds.

SUGGEST: *CORTESTA* (EACH WAY) @ $41+, I STOLE YOUR LOVE (EACH WAY) @ $51+, NOW OR NEVER (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $12+, FIRST FOUR (roving 3, 11, 13 / F) (CONFIDENCE 25%)

 

Race 3: Next is the Listed Dulcify Quality for the three year olds over the mile (1600m). Another very tough race, but have ended up with a very slight lean to LANGLEY at $6.50 with CENTREBET. Stepping through the grades nicely, and think O’Shea will be keen to impress early in his return to training under his own name once again. Throw a blanket over many others illustrated by the fact that half the field are 11/1 or less.

SUGGEST: LANGLEY (EACH WAY) @ $6.50+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 4: Next is the Group 2 Hill Stakes run over 1800m. Decent speed on paper here, hence pace/tactics important. Another very competitive race, which looks to be the theme of the day, however have ended up leaning towards SENSE OF OCCASION @ $5+ (most operators) and MAURUS at $12+ (CENTREBET). Think conditions, pace and distance all suit here, but do concede MACKINTOSH will be hard to beat, however I personally believe under the odds at $2.80 with most operators.

SUGGEST: SENSE OF OCCASION (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $5+, MAURUS (EACH WAY) @ $12+, FIRST FOUR (F / 4 / F / 1, 5) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 5: Now the first of three Group 1s on the card, starting with the Group 1 Flight Stakes for the three year olds fillies, run over the infamous Randwick mile (1600m). **CHAMPAGNE CUDDLES** is a filly who is really starting to grow on me, and don’t see a reason to jump off after being on her last week when she rattled home behind blowout winner Trapeze Artist in the Group 1 Golden Rose after being stone motherless with 400m remaining. Happy to play here on the each way at a tidy enough $4.80+ with SPORTSBET and UBET, at the price happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main dangers ALIZEE, ONE MORE HONEY, CELLARGIRL and SWEET DEAL.

SUGGEST: **CHAMPAGNE CUDDLES** (EACH WAY) @ $4.80+, FIRST FOUR (2, 3, 4, 5 / F / 2, 3, 4, 5 / 1) (CONFIDENCE 40%) 

 

Race 6: First leg of the quaddie is the Group 2 Premiere Stakes over 1200m which sees the grey flash CHAUTAUQUA in his final lead up before the Everest. Cracking race, you see far inferior Group 1s, but despite the Group 2 status here, this is top drawer racing. Can’t go past the grey flash here at $3+ with BET365. Convinced he needs a little bit of time and distance to find best (as we saw last prep) but first up run was super and although grand final is next start, it’s only two weeks away hence needs to be very close to best here and if so must go close. Pace/tactics will be key, there is some pace but not necessarily a stack, but rail position back to true is heartening also. Secondary play *KURO* at a generous $21+ with both UBET and BET365. Have always liked this gelding, underrated in my opinion and we’ve had some luck in recent times with him. At the price, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Happy to play around the two but plenty of legitimate winning hopes.

SUGGEST: CHAUTAUQUA (WIN / EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $3+, *KURO* (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $21+, FIRST FOUR (F / 1, 5 / F / 1, 5) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 7: Now for the feature, the Group 1 Epsom Handicap which has been affected by yesterday’s scratching of key chance EGG TART. And to be honest, this looks very straight forward in the form of HAPPY CLAPPER @ $2.90+ with UBET. Have always rated this guy, is a serious top drawer/Group 1 horse and today should give connections the reward for their patience over the journey. Happy to play there, ahead of main dangers in the Waller duo of COMIN’ THROUGH and TOM MELBOURNE.

SUGGEST: HAPPY CLAPPER (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $2.90+, FIRST FOUR (9, 11 / 9, 11 / 1 / F) (CONFIDENCE 50%) 

 

Race 8: Penultimate event is the last of the Group 1s, this time in the form of the Metropolitan over 2400m. **LIFE LESS ORDINARY** was flagged as our Metropolitan hope a month or so ago and no real reason to jump off here, especially given the significant weight drop to 51kg here. Will appreciate the extra distance, but admittedly so will most others here, including each of the Waller quartet who come out of the same lead up race. Confident here on an each way basis at $4.40+ (CROWNBET, BET365) and happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Then, want something on the old stablemate WHO SHOT THEBARMAN at a juicy $15+ with PALMERBET, BET365 and CENTREBET. Studying the video closely, didn’t have a clear run in the straight last time and after only getting clear galloping room late, hit the line better than anything and importantly was past all besides the winner 50m past the post, including LIFE LESS ORDINARY. Main dangers LIBRAN, ANTONIO GIUSEPPE, won’t be surprised if we see another Waller first four here. All very strong winning chances.     

SUGGEST: **LIFE LESS ORDINARY** (EACH WAY) @ $4.40+, WHO SHOT THEBARMAN (EACH WAY) @ $15+, FIRST FOUR (boxed 1, 2, 6, 9) (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

Race 9: We finish with a benchmark 90 over 1200m and happy to give I THOUGHT SO another chance here at $3.80+ with most operators. To the naked eye, a touch disappointing last time, but is undefeated second up, and importantly drops 3kg here. As a result, think can improve and if so should be hard to beat. Main dangers SPRIGHT, TANGO RAIN and DAGNY. Would’ve been ultra-confident with DAGNY (who was super for us last time as Best Longshot, when 3rd) if more than 1200m, but stays at the 1200m and might hold fire until they step up in trip.

SUGGEST: I THOUGHT SO (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.80+, FIRST FOUR (4, 8, 12 / F / 4, 8, 12 / 10) (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

SUMMARY:

Average odds a juicy $13.37+ per suggested runner!

** BEST VALUE **: CHAMPAGNE CUDDLES @ $4.80+, LIFE LESS ORDINARY @ $4.40+

*BEST LONGSHOT*: CORTESTA @ $41+, KURO @ $21+

#happypunting