SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 9, 2017
Racing at MOONEE VALLEY with cold, wintery conditions in Melbourne of late, but relatively clear Friday/Saturday, penetrometer 4.7, hence currently looking at a GOOD (4) surface.
RAIL: +2M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to MOONEE VALLEY with the rail out +2M, after being in the TRUE position here two weeks’ ago. Hoping for even track where all runners get their chance (pace dependant), but as always, be sure to keep a close eye on early races for best guide.
Race 1: We start with a benchmark 84 for the fillies and mares over the mile (1600m). Hoping to get off the mark early with SAMOVARE @ $2.65+ (BET366, CROWNBET) who has been just missing of late, but hopefully finally gets ideal circumstances to get the right run in transit and be best late. Just needs a touch of luck to end up most likely 2-3 wide with cover, midfield and if so hard to beat. Main dangers NIMINYPIMINY, SEA THE SPARKLE and SPANISH REEF.
SUGGEST: SAMOVARE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $2.65+, FIRST FOUR (5, 7, 9 / 3 / F / 5, 7, 9) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 2: Next is an open event for the three year old over 1509m, to be precise. Disappointed by several scratchings (of which there are many) as I was keen on a couple at huge odds. But, we play around the cards we’re dealt and still think there’s excellent value on offer for a runner like SHEER MADNESS @ $17+ (SPORTSBET) who has always been a consistent galloper in good grade and they seem to be enjoying her flexible style, being ridden more positively, hence needing less luck in the run. Also want a WIN only play on SUNQUEST at $3.40+ with LUXBET. Racing in the right form for a race like this and looks set to return to the winner’s stalls.
SUGGEST: SHEER MADNESS (EACH WAY) @ $17+, SUNQUEST (WIN) @ $3.40+, FIRST FOUR (F / 5, 8 / F / 5, 8) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 3: Next is a benchmark 78 over the same 1509m distance. Tough, wide open affair with plenty of legitimate winning chances. Not to mention, plenty of luck in running required in the big field. Disappointed by the scratching of RADICAL who I liked here, but not to be. As a result, we land on **COSMIC LIGHTS** at $7.50+ with LUXBET. Consistent, is always there and ‘there abouts’ and should be there once again when the whips are cracking late. At the price, happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main danger BRAHMOS.
SUGGEST: **COSMIC LIGHTS** (EACH WAY) @ $7.50+, FIRST FOUR (F / 16 / F / 12) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 4: Open event over the famous 2040m at Moonee Valley. Not long now until the superstar mare jumps for three consecutive Cox Plates from this very barrier position. Wide open race once again, and unfortunately another I was keen on at odds, is no longer here in MOONOVERMANHATTAN. Want a play on *ELECTRIC FUSION* at $17+ with LUXBET and UBET. Has been very close in recent times and split two decent gallopers two back in Alward and Crocodile Rock. Again, needs some luck from the gate (13) but at the price happy to hope at least one of the two gets the required luck. At the price, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Then, also something on one who just missed for us last time at 50/1 in FOUNDATION @ $10+ (BET365) who can improve further here. Main dangers FOUNDRY, HANS HOLBIEN, but doesn’t end there.
SUGGEST: *ELECTRIC FUSION* (EACH WAY) @ $17+, FOUNDATION (EACH WAY) @ $10+, FIRST FOUR (4, 5 / 4, 5 / F / 8, 14) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 5: Now to the first of the features, in the form of the Group 2 Mcewan Stakes over 1000m. Small, but select and quality field. Intriguing and cracking race with 6 of the 7 winners (with all due respect to UNIQUE LOVELY who looks panels out of her class bracket) all very good (and fast) sprinters. Most should be very close to equal odds, and as a result, not sure why SUPIDO is almost the longest of all other runners at an acceptable $8+ with UBET. Nice each way price, although be sure to note, no third dividend. Main danger HOUTZEN with only 50kg to carry. All others (besides UNIQUE LOVELY, sorry Frankie) can most definitely win.
SUGGEST: SUPIDO (EACH WAY) @ $8+, FIRST FOUR (7 / 1, 2, 4, 5 / 3 / 1, 2, 4, 5) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 6: First leg of the quaddie is a Listed event for the three year old fillies over 1200m. Going with one we have backed with success at past two starts and is unbeaten in three starts to date. The runner in question is SHOALS at $3+ (most operators) and rate this filly very highly. As long as there is sufficient fitness in the legs for a first up assault (will obviously have bigger fish to fry), hence be sure to keep an eye on markets and also fitness levels in the yard. Main danger SANADAAT.
SUGGEST: SHOALS (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3+, FIRST FOUR (8 / F / 1 / F) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 7: Another Listed event, this time over 1200m. BRAVE SMASH is all the rage at $1.60 with most, however very skinny price for one we have only seen once in Australia (albeit a simply sensational run) and remains at 1200m. May well bolt in, but at the skinny price prefer to leave with multiples, savers and even a potential one out quaddie leg. Instead prefer to play SANTA ANA LANE at $12+ (UBET, SPORTSBET) who was beaten by BRAVE SMASH by 4.3L last time but can improve further, but does probably require the fave to have a flat one second up.
SUGGEST: SANTA ANA LANE (EACH WAY) @ $12+, FIRST FOUR (2 / F / F / 3), (F / 2 / F / 3) (CONFIDENCE 25%)
Race 8: Penultimate event is the feature of the card, in the form of the Group 2 Dato’ Tan Chin Nam Stakes over the mile (1600m). Tough race. Many different form lines and fitness levels to try and line up. Going with a couple at odds (or they were when I started the form) in the form of ARTICUS at $8+ (most operators, was $12+) and the old boy *JACQUINOT BAY* at a juicy $31+ with most operators. Both somewhat speculative, but both have proven form and well weighted against at least some key rivals. Given the juicy price for the latter, will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers HE’S OUR ROKKII, STAR EXHIBIT, RHYTHM TO SPARE and BONNEVAL, but doesn’t end there in a very deep race.
SUGGEST: ARTICUS (EACH WAY) @ $8+, *JACQUINOT BAY* (EACH WAY) @ $31, FIRST FOUR (4, 5, 6, 11 / 3, 8 / F / 3, 8) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 9: We finish with an open event over the mile (1600m) and I can’t split the two at the top of the weights in the form of BIG DUKE at $6.50+ (most operators) and **BOOM TIME** at $8+ with BET365. Both were very good first up and always get better second up and beyond. Expecting improvement from both and as long as that occurs, both should be right in the finish here and hard to beat. As a result, will simply play them both and what looks a tough day will make the latter (**BOOM TIME**) a BEST VALUE bet of the day given the slightly better odds.
SUGGEST: **BOOM TIME** (EACH WAY) @ $8+, BIG DUKE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $6.50+, FIRST FOUR (F / 1, 2 / F / 1, 2) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Average odds $9.62+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: COSMIC LIGHTS @ $7.50+, BOOM TIME @ $8+
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: ELECTRIC FUSION @ $17+, JACQUINOT BAY @ $31+