SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 9, 2017
Racing at ROSEHILL GARDENS with fine weather forecast (admittedly Sydney weather this winter has been brilliant), penetrometer 4.55, hence currently looking at a GOOD (3) surface.
RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to ROSEHILL GARDENS with the rail back to the TRUE position, after being out +6M two weeks’ back. Hoping for even track where all runners get their chance (pace dependant), but be sure to keep a close eye on early races for best guide and ensure this is the case.
Race 1: We start with a benchmark 76 for the fillies and mares over 1500m. Tricky start despite the small field, with five of the seven runners, being last start winners. Minimal pace on paper, so could well be a tactical battle with a good jockey important. KARAVALI looks the one here at $2.90+ with most operators. Has done very little wrong in short career, won well first up hopefully giving the mare some added confidence after a series of near misses last prep. Primary WIN only play. Also, a secondary play HEARTLINGS at $7.50+ (most operators). Consistent and gets handy 3kg claim. Throw a blanket over the rest. Note, no third dividend.
SUGGEST: KARAVALI (WIN) @ $2.90+, HEARTLINGS (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $7.50+, FIRST FOUR (F / 2 / 1 / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 2: Next is the class 3 TAB Highway Handicap over 1200m and similar to the above, with SUNCRAZE winning last time (breaking long run of near misses), might now just have the confidence to keep going. Happy to play there on a WIN only basis at $2.30+ with most operators. Main dangers MOSSMAN GORGE, DON’T GIVE A DAMN and NORTHERN KNIGHT.
SUGGEST: SUNCRAZE (WIN) @ $2.30+ (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 3: Next is a benchmark 81 over 1800m. Concede ALWARD is the one to beat, but dropping 200m and at a skinny $2 with most, just leaning with the stablemate **VAUCLUSE BAY** @ $8+ (UBET). Good each way value, is racing very well and just needs a touch of luck from the extreme outside gate. Main danger the obvious in ALWARD. Happy to leave it with the two to battle out, and at the price, actually happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day.
SUGGEST: **VAUCLUSE BAY** (EACH WAY) @ $8+, FIRST FOUR (1 / F / F / 3) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 4: Now for the first of the features, starting with the Group 2 Stan Fox Stakes over 1500m and will keep this nice and simply with ADDICTIVE NATURE at $2.35+ with most operators. Just looks to have a clear class edge over rivals here and should be very hard to beat. The knock would be if for any reason leaders/on pacers were being disadvantaged (whether that be wind or simply track going), so be sure to keep a close eye on earlier races to ascertain whether there are any real issues there. Adjust outlay accordingly. Note, no third dividend.
SUGGEST: ADDICTIVE NATURE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $2.35+ (CONFIDENCE 45%)
Race 5: Next is the Group 2 Theo Marks to be run over 1300m. Good, little race with many chances, with fitness levels key to many chances, especially those first up. Leaning towards **DEPLOY** here at $3.20+ with BET365. Ultra-consistent, proven this grade, distance suits (despite never actually running 1300m, however has won multiple times over less and also won over 1400m), and has race day fitness on its side. Happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Secondary play on GOOD PROJECT at $15+ with LUXBET. Is capable on his day and just looks over the odds so warrants a play on that alone. Main dangers EGG TART (looking for much longer, but class will carry her a long way), DIXIE BLOSSOMS and CANNYESCENT. Good race. Note, no third dividend.
SUGGEST: **DEPLOY** (EACH WAY) @ $3.20+, GOOD PROJECT (EACH WAY) @ $15+, FIRST FOUR (4, 6, 8 / 2, 3 / F / 2, 3), (4, 6, 8 / F / 3 / 2) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 6: First leg of the quaddie is the Group 3 Sheraco Stakes for the fillies and mares over 1200m. Very good race, tricky with many key hopes drawn wide, not to mention several first up here after long breaks and with bigger fish to fry later in the spring. Not to mention the likes of GHISONI who are top drawer, but hasn’t been seen at a race track for 455 days. Keen to play around two starting with *GIBRALTOR GIRL* at a juicy $13+ with LUXBET. Likes her run first up, normally improves second up and looks a great each way price. At the price, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Then, also want something on the ultra-consistent BONNY O’REILLY at $4.20+ (most operators). Flying, although the obvious query is the sticky gate (12 of 13) but think she’s adaptable enough to find a spot with Jason Collett needing to be on his toes early. Many classy gallopers here, but hoping barriers and fitness won’t be on their sides today. Time will tell.
SUGGEST: *GIBRALTOR GIRL* (EACH WAY) @ $13+, BONNY O’REILLY (EACH WAY) @ $4.20+, FIRST FOUR (F / 7, 12 / F / 7, 12) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 7: And the last of the features, is the Group 2 Run To The Rose for the three year olds over 1200m. Two horse race here on paper and despite the shorter odds, I’m a big MENARI fan and just don’t want to jump off here at $2.40+ (BET365) after winning for followers impressively first up with a big weight. Gets good weight relief here and should be hard to beat. PARIAH the obvious danger and $4+ (UNIBET, BET365) is better value than I expected and a must for everything from multiples, quaddies, etc. Take the two and you should be fine, but am leaning MENARI.
SUGGEST: MENARI (WIN) @ $2.40+, EXACTA (PARIAH / MENARI) (CONFIDENCE 55%)
Race 8: Penultimate event is a benchmark 90 over 1200m. TANGO RAIN got us the chocolates last time and similar to Menari above, gets good weight relief here for last start win and can go back to back here at $2.50+ with BET365. Has always promised plenty, and hoping this is the prep ‘promise’ turns into ‘delivery’. Then, also want something on top weight *SUPREME EFFORT* at a juicy $16+ with most operators. Gets crucial 3kg claim to drop to 58kg and was only 2.3L from Bonny O’Reilly first up and can improve further here second up. At the price, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Drawn well, look a good each way play. Main dangers ZUMBELINA, DENPURR and MANA.
SUGGEST: TANGO RAIN (WIN - PRIMARY) @ $2.50, *SUPREME EFFORT* (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $16+, FIRST FOUR (8, 9, 13 / 1, 4 / F / 1, 4) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 9: We finish with a benchmark 84 over 1400m and a competitive finale. Finding it hard to split two here in WAYANKA at $9+ (most operators) and PEACOCK at $6.50+ (BET365, CENTREBET). As a result, we won’t throw all our eggs in one basket and instead simply play the two given the decent odds on offer. WAYANKA is a 1400m horse and won well for followers two back when our best of the day. Has been up a while, but need to trust the Waller stable. PEACOCK is another who has been good to followers, winning at a big price over the Spring last year and hopefully can do similar here albeit a shorter price. Many chances in what looks a deep and competitive finish.
SUGGEST: WAYANKA (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $9+, PEACOCK (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $6.50+, FIRST FOUR (F / 6, 11 / F / 6, 11) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Average odds $6.77+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: VAUCLUSE BAY @ $8+, DEPLOY @ $3.20+
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: GIBRALTOR GIRL @ $13+, SUPREME EFFORT @ $16+