13 January 2018 (Magic Millions Day on the Gold Coast)

PUNTING DUNGEON

WWW.PUNTINGDUNGEON.COM.AU

GOLD COAST

SATURDAY, JANUARY 13, 2017

 

Racing on the GOLD COAST with fine weather forecast, penetrometer reading 4.6, hence currently looking at a GOOD (4) surface.

RAIL: +1M (1000m – 400m), TRUE (remainder). We head to the GOLD COAST for literally their day in the sun, Magic Millions day. Rail out +1M from the 1000m to the 400m, and in the TRUE for the remainder of the circuit. Hoping for an even track, where all get their chance (pace dependant), but as always, be sure to keep a close eye on early races for best guide.

 

Race 1: We start with a maiden event over 1200m and there looks to be some serious pace on paper here. Disappointed by the scratching of BALEARIC who I think was very well suited here, especially with the pace strong. DINNIGAN is the obvious here after running a bottler in 2nd last start in a Group 3 event and now drops significantly in class to a maiden, albeit an expensive one. In saying that, especially with the pace strong, not interested in $1.75 odds. Instead, now think best odds lie with the top weight in MISSILE STRIKE at a juicy $14+ (most operators), first up for the strong Hawkes stable. Can take a sit behind the hectic pace and hopefully run over the top of them. Just needs a carefully planned and smart ride from barrier 1. Then, think you can do worse than MAY I SAY at the long $31+ price with UBET. Only flop was on a heavy track, and like the very nice return in November, before being freshened up for this. Main danger DINNIGAN.

SUGGEST: MISSILE STRIKE (EACH WAY) @ $14+, MAY I SAY (EACH WAY) @ $31+, FIRST FOUR (roving 1, 10, 17 / F), (F / F / 10 / 1, 17) (CONFIDENCE 25%)

 

Race 2: Next is the country cup, also over 1200m. Tough race. Hard to know where to look, with form lines coming from absolutely everywhere. Slight lean to PURE REBEL here at $9+ with most operators, ahead of CONCA DEL SOGNO at $12+ with CROWNBET. PURE REBEL was good first up at Randwick and should most definitely be better second up here. Melham should be able to get a spot near the rail on pace from barrier 8 and unlike the opener, just even tempo expected here. Then, something on CONCA DEL SOGNO who needs to bring excellent country form to town, but that’s what these country cups are all about. Main danger HE’S A MORAL and SUGGAN BUGGAN.

SUGGEST: PURE REBEL (EACH WAY) @ $9+, CONCA DEL SOGNO (EACH WAY) @ $12+, FIRST FOUR (F / 5, 11 / F / 2, 6) (CONFIDENCE 25%)

 

Race 3: Next is an open handicap over 1300m and another open, competitive and tricky race. Slight lean to top weight UPSTART PRIDE at $9+ with UNIBET and UBET. Should get a gun run from barrier 4 with Shinn aboard and from there should be right in the finish. Then, want secondary plays on both NATURAL BLACK at $21+ (BET365) and SAILOR GERRI at $26+ with UBET, NEDs and BET365. Both up to this level, NATURAL BLACK can be prominent and get a softer run from barrier 1 but will need some luck as they straighten, hence Corey Brown will need to be on his toes. SAILOR GERRI is drawn terribly, but should they cross easily enough, and find a spot ideally one off the fence, then right in this at a price. Main dangers I’M A RIPPA and FIT FOR PURPOSE.

SUGGEST: UPSTART PRIDE (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $9+, NATURAL BLACK (WIN / EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $21+, NATURAL BLACK (WIN / EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $26+, FIRST FOUR (F / 12, 14 / F / 1, 16, 17), (F / 1 / 12, 14 / 16, 17) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 4: Next is the Magic Million trophy tro be run over 2200m. Was keen to take on PAYROLL here, but is now out, which isn’t ideal as less value on offer as a result across the board. This race really revolved around whether the two key runners, SEDANZER and PAYROLL would run out a strong 2200m. the latter isn’t here, so it’s all about SEDANZER at the trip. I’m personally a big SEDANZER fan and as a result I’m going to take on trust that the stable wouldn’t be running if not confident in the trip. Low flying this prep and if runs the trip, think we’ll be winning at $3+ with BET365. Also, want a secondary play on BLACK ON GOLD at a more than respectable $13+ (UBET). Looks to now be looking for the 2200m and hopefully has been trained to the minute specifically for this. Throw a blanket over many others, another big field and tough race.

SUGGEST: SEDANZER (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.10+, BLACK ON GOLD (EACH WAY) @ $12+, FIRST FOUR (F / 4, 5 / F / 4, 5) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 5: Last leg of the early quaddie is a SWP (set weights and penalties) event for the fillies and mares over 1300m, another big field and close to another $1M up for grabs. Pace/tactics and how track is playing is key here, as it is with most races today, especially on a tight turning Gold Coast track. Bit of pace here, which is key with GLOBAL GLAMOUR the one to beat and will be right there smack bang on the pace. Happy to take a few at odds instead here in the form of CANDIKA at $14+ (BET365), MY COUNTRY at $26+ (BET365) and finally DENPURR also at $26+ with most operators. CANDIKA was a total forgive first up and goes well second up. Last prep was good form for a race like this, winning a Listed event and other good runs in black type events, before the trip brought her back down to earth in the Group 2 The Roses before a break. MY COUNTRY was good after a decent freshen up last time behind the above average Music Magnate, and importantly gets Shinn aboard, always important to have a gun jockey aboard in races like this, can make such a difference. While, stablemate DENPURR flew home in that same race from an impossible position and wasn’t far away in this race last year when 4th. The latter two from the strong Snowden stable and both will appreciate strong tempo up in front, so let’s hope that eventuates and those off the pace are at least getting their chance.

SUGGEST: CANDIKA (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $14+, MY COUNTRY (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $26+, DENPURR (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $26+, FIRST FOUR (F / 6, 10, 14 / F / 6, 10, 14) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 6: First leg of the main quaddie is the Magic Millions Cup to be run over 1400m and yet another million dollars (or very close to) up for grabs. This revolves around LUCKY HUSSLER who is without doubt the class runner in the field, however has pulled up sore at past two, following extremely dominant win on Cox Plate day. Just for added complexities, has 61kg and has drawn barrier 18. However, is most definitely the ‘best horse’ in the race and is $10+ with BET365. In saying that, going with the ‘best horse’ rule here, especially given the double figure price and did win this race in 2016. Happy to play there on an each way basis, and then also want to play *OAK DOOR* at a very juicy $19+ with both SPORTSBET and CROWNBET. Always had a good opinion of this galloper, who I consider to be a touch underrated despite not doing much wrong in career to date. Can get a lovely run just behind the leaders from barrier 9 and be right in the finish. Interestingly, despite a lot of controversy surrounding the Smerdon stable, the stable is going very well. I personally have a theory that in most cases, when investigations are taking place it has a very negative impact on the runners (i.e. O’Brien, Kavanagh), however in some instances it has the opposite effect and that looks to be the case with Smerdon. Should improve second up and the trip is ideal having won 3 from 4. Happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers CRACK ME UP and CARE TO THINK.

SUGGEST: LUCKY HUSSLER (EACH WAY) @ $10+, *OAK DOOR* (EACH WAY) @ $19+, FIRST FOUR (3, 11 / 1, 9 / F / 1, 3, 9, 11) (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

Race 7: Next is the first of the features (which is odd to say after a bunch of back to back million dollar races), with the three year old Guineas a restricted Listed event over 1400m, with $1.9 million up for grabs here. Pace/tactics key here, with minimal pace on paper, which is always important on a track like the Gold Coast, hence expecting those on/close to the pace to be hard to catch. Like **WILD HEART** here at a very generous $15+ with PALMERBET and CROWNBET. Brings very good form here, despite it being Wyong, as Single Bullet is no slouch and was too good first up, and is undefeated second up from the one try. Drawn beautifully in barrier 3 so should get the gun run and with a touch of luck at the top of the straight should be very hard to catch. Despite the $15+ price tag, happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Then, a couple of secondary plays at big odds on LADY OF CREBILLY at $34+ with (SPORTSBET, PALMERBET, BET365), WHYPEEO at $23+ (UBET) and I AM IMPINGE at $51+ with BET365. LADY OF CREBILLY was out of it after a slow start last time, however form prior solid and if she can jump well and be right on the pace here, can give a very good sight. WHYPEEO with Shinn aboard, can lead and dictate off a moderate at best tempo, which must give a chance, however the obvious query is the 1400m. Will try and pinch a break upon straightening but will need a Blake Shinn special to pull the wool over some eyes here and try and pinch it. I AM IMPINGE is at huge odds, will be in the right place, a question of class/ability, but at the price happy to dabble.

SUGGEST: **WILD HEART** (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $15+, LADY OF CREBILLY (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $34+, WHYPEEO (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $23+, I AM IMPINGE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $51+, FIRST FOUR (F / 9 / F / 3, 16, 17) (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

Race 8: Penultimate event is the 2YO Magic Millions Classic over 1200m, worth a lazy $1.2 million for the winner, and $1.9M up for grabs. Hard, given plenty bring winning form here and the ceiling of many is unknown. Barriers look yet here with plenty of guesswork on those drawn wide and where they’ll land in the run including favourite SUNLIGHT), so think the much safer option is to run with those drawn well and looking likely to settle in the right spots, which is half the battle here. That narrows us down to JONKER at $6.50+ (POINTSBET), NOMOTHAJ at $11+ (BET365) and the best value of the lot in *OUTBACK BARBIE* at $26+, also with BET365. Given the odds on offer, thinking the suggested plays should be JONKER and NOMOTHAJ on WIN only basis’, and then an each way play on *OUTBACK BARBIE* at the juicy price. At the price, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Between the three they have never lost, 2/2, 1/1 and 1/1 respectively so bring the form, and I’ve simply married that with the good draws. Happy to play around the three in a deep, open event.

SUGGEST: JONKER (WIN) @ $6.50+, NOMOTHAJ (WIN) @ $11+, *OUTBACK BARBIE* (EACH WAY) @ $26+, FIRST FOUR (roving 1, 12, 13 / F), (F / 1, 12 / F / 1, 12, 13) (CONFIDENCE 30%) 

 

Race 9: We finish with the Magic Millions Sprint to be run over 1200m, worth another million dollars. Call me boring but the market looks spot on here and hard to split VIDDORA at $2.65+ (CROWNBET) and **EGYPTIAN SYMBOL** at $5+ with BET365. However at the price, have to go with **EGYPTIAN SYMBOL** given the each way value and happy to actually make a BEST VALUE bet of the day to finish things off. Main danger most definitely VIDDORA who is low flying of late.

SUGGEST: **EGYPTIAN SYMBOL** (EACH WAY) @ $5+, FIRST FOUR (3 / F / F / 9), (F / 3 / F / 9) (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

SUMMARY:

Average odds $18.35+ per suggested runner!

** BEST VALUE **: WILD HEART @ $15+, EGYPTIAN SYMBOL @ $5+

*BEST LONGSHOTS*: OAK DOOR @ $19+, OUTBACK BARBIE @ $26+

#happypunting