MONDAY, JANUARY 20, 2018
Racing at FLEMINGTON with hot weather in the lead up, currently looking at a GOOD (4) surface.
RAIL: +9M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to FLEMNGTON on the back of blistering, hot weather on Thursday and Friday in Melbourne. Rail comes out +9M, hence expecting no major disadvantage to be on pace / closer to the fence, however as always be sure to keep a close eye on early races for best guide.
Race 1: We start with a benchmark 84 over 1800m and although there’s not much between several here, I’m in the corner of GUIZOT here at a tidy $7.50+ with UBET. Was good last time with big weight (60kg) and drops an important 3kg here, drawn well, and should be right in the finish. Not a great deal of speed so hoping close enough, and for this reason, also want something on bottom weight MUTARAKEM at $11+ who should be right on the pace and can give a more than cheeky kick as they straighten. Main dangers SHOREHAM, ROYAL ACE and WILLI WILLI.
SUGGEST: GUIZOT (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $7.50+, MUTARAKEM (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $11+, FIRST FOUR (2, 6, 8 / 4, 11 / F / 4, 11) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 2: Next is an open handicap over 2500m and really keen on **GOODWOOD ZODIAC** here at $4.80+ with CROWNBET. Gets in brilliantly at the weights here, down to 52kg after the very handy 2kg claim from Zac Spain. Should be an easy ride, should lead comfortably out in front, hence just needs to not overdue things and should be very hard to catch. Drops a lazy 7.5kg from two starts back when narrowly defeated by key rival here in SERENADE THE STARS, who only drops 2kg, meaning a significant 5.5kg swing for 1L. Especially if on pacers are advantaged, but as long as track is even, then happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main danger LAST WEEK.
SUGGEST: **GOODWOOD ZODIAC** (EACH WAY) @ $4.80+, FIRST FOUR (8 / F / F / 3, 7) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 3: Next is a benchmark 70 for the three year olds, over 2000m. **ANNEKA** won a trial by 20L, yes, that’s correct 20L and the more than handy Lamborghini was in the trial. Obviously pushed out hard over the long trial – 1600m, others untouched, but if nothing else will be fit for this. Can be on pace, just don’t want in any speed battles as there is some pace, but Williams can control that. I mentioned recently I think Smerdon runners are flying (despite all the controversy) and this galloper has head to Henry Dwyer along with many others given the fallout from Aquanita. Happy to play at a very tidy $7.50+ with most operators. At the price, happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main danger CIVIL DISOBEDIENCE, but does have to lump 60kg on this occasion, which is the query.
SUGGEST: **ANNEKA** (EACH WAY) @ $7.50+, FIRST FOUR (F / 1 / F / 8) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 4: Next is a benchmark 84 for the fillies and mares over 2000m. Tough, even race, with many coming out of similar races. Think best value lies with STORMY SHORE here at a more than tidy $15+ with most operators. Just missed in a bunched finished last time against several key rivals here, and does drop 0.5kg with some others at the same or even increased weights here. Craig Williams retains the ride, hence happy to be in her corner as the one over the odds. Then, happy to play another at an even juicier $19+ with SPORTSBET in the form of RIVER GODDESS. A touch plain last time, but not far away and we’ve suggested a play on that winner Mutarakem in the opener here, so confidence increased with a big run there. Gets in nicely at the weights, especially for run two back against key rivals here, including hot fave ADDISON, dropping 6kg, meeting her 4.5kg better for a 4.3L defeat. Main danger ADDISON, with the main query, her get back running style, hence pattern will be key to her chances. If backmarkers are getting their chance, then hard to beat.
SUGGEST: STORMY SHORE (EACH WAY) @ $15+, RIVER GODDESS (EACH WAY) @ $19+, FIRST FOUR (roving 2, 5, 9 / F), (F / 2 / F / 5, 9) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 5: Next is a benchmark 70 over the mile (1600m). Any tough, even affair for mine and finding it hard to split two here at similar in the form of TAN TAT TRUSTING at $9+ (UBET) and VUNGERS at $9.50+ (SPORTSBET, BET365). TAN TAT TRUSTING should be in a good spot from the better gate and should strip fitter second up from a break, also gets in nicely at the weights. VUNGERS who should be able to cross easily enough from the wide gate (14) and beat favourite here in KRUSTY last time and weighted well enough to do that again as long as the barrier is taken out of play. Throw a blanket over the rest in a tough, even race.
SUGGEST: TAN TAT TRUSTING (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $9+, VUNGERS (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $9.50+, FIRST FOUR (F / 12, 13 / F / 12, 13) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 6: First leg of the quaddie is a benchmark 84 over 1200m and another tough, wide open race, this one arguably the hardest of the lot. Willing to give MANOLO BLAHNIQ another go here at a respectable $8.50+ with SPORTSBET, after a forgive job last time when jockey Craig Williams felt the brunt of plenty of criticism. Was actually not far away at Group 1 level when down the straight a while back and does seem to be going well this prep (without winning as yet) following the ultimate gear change in the off season – gelded. Then, want to play a couple at juicy prices in PLAY MASTER at $34+ (most operators) and *ROMAN FIZZ* at $51+ with BET365. Both somewhat hard to catch, but capable on their day and importantly (unlike others here) at least have experience down the straight. At the bigger price, happy to make ROMAN FIZZ a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers HANDSOME THIEF, JUST HIFALUTIN and LEODOO, but deep race and doesn’t end there.
SUGGEST: MANOLO BLAHNIQ (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $8.50+, *ROMAN FIZZ* (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $51+, PLAY MASTER (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $35+, FIRST FOUR (F / 5, 6, 13 / F / 4, 10, 15) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 7: Next leg is the Inglis Dash for the three year olds, to be run over 1100m and very hard to go past NATURE STRIP here who should simply be winning at $1.60+ with CROWNBET. You would expect decent form to come out of the race, with untapped ability seemingly evident, but I think only the straight is the slight query and even so ability/class might be sufficient even if the gelding doesn’t handle it. A straight WIN play, ahead of main dangers ONEHUNDRED PERCENT and PREZADO.
SUGGEST: NATURE STRIP (WIN) @ $1.60+, FIRST FOUR (roving 2, 3, 4 / F), (2, 3 / 4 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 65%)
Race 8: Penultimate event is the Listed Kensington Stakes to be run over 1000m. Market says a raffle, with seven of the eight runners at double figure odds. Again, little between them. Finding it hard to split two here in THERMAL CURRENT @ $4.80+ (CROWNBET, UBET) and HUSSON EAGLE @ $5.50+ with most operators. Given the odds on offer, will simply run with WIN only play on both runners, however all three dividends available if you prefer to play each way. Throw a blanket over the rest, literally.
SUGGEST: THERMAL CURRENT (WIN) @ $4.80+, HUSSON EAGLE (WIN) @ $5.50+, FIRST FOUR (F / 5, 6 / F / 5, 6) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 9: Final event is a benchmark 84 over 1400m and going to end with the obvious here in WISE HERO at $3.25+ with BET365. Looks to have returned very well and nothing better than a confidence building win last time after just missing first two runs this prep. Can definitely go on with it here, with another confident ride. Longshot play to *DIAMOND OASIS* at a massive $71+ with BET365. Best is definitely in the past but best was a fair bit better than this and hope in the run two back when only 2.1L away in a Group 3 on New Year’s Day behind Lord Of The Sky in the Standish. At the price, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main danger THE AVENGER but doesn’t end there.
SUGGEST: WISE HERO (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.25+, *DIAMOND OASIS* (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $71+, FIRST FOUR (roving 3, 4, 12 / F), (12 / F / F / 3, 4) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Average odds $16.50+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: GOODWOOD ZODIAC @ $4.80+, ANNEKA @ $7.50+
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: ROMAN FIZZ @ $51+, DIAMOND OASIS @ $71+