20 January 2018 (Racing at Royal Randwick)

PUNTING DUNGEON

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ROYAL RANDWICK

SATURDAY, JANUARY 20, 2017

 

Racing at ROYAL RANDWICK with fine weather forecast, penetrometer reading 5.11, hence currently looking at a GOOD (4) surface.

RAIL: +8M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to ROYAL RANDWICK with the rail out +8M after the rail was out +4M here last week. Hoping for an even track where all get their chance (pace dependant), no major reason to think otherwise, but as always, be sure to keep a close eye on early races for best guide.

 

Race 1: We start with the two year olds over 1000m. Plenty of guesswork with only one with race day experience and that’s exactly where I’m going to lean with LIGULATE at $6+ with most operators. Just missed last time, but worth noting Avdulla jumps onto the $1.7M purchase in ESTIJAAB here. Still happy to play LIGULATE with the benefit of the race day experience. Also, want to play the toppie here in *DIA D’ORO* for the in-form Gary Portelli stable at a generous $19+ with BET365. Won trial, stable flying, but most importantly we still seem to be getting value for their runners. At the price, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers RULING SYMBOL and ESTIJAAB. Respect money for any other of the debutants here.

SUGGEST: LIGULATE (EACH WAY) @ $6+, *DIA D’ORO* (EACH WAY) @ $19+, FIRST FOUR (4, 8 / 1, 6 / F / 1, 6), (F / 4, 8 / 1, 6 / 1, 6) (CONFIDENCE 25%)

 

Race 2: Next is a benchmark 76 for the three year olds over 1300m. Waller with a strong hand here, despite the small field and despite scratching two others, and as a result have D’ARGENTO and PARET on top at $2.45+ (POINSBET) and $4.40+ (UBET, CROWNBET and CENTREBET) respectively. Don’t think there’s much between them and as a result will default to the better odds with PARET. Main danger D’ARGENTO but doesn’t end there with all runners $6 or less in crowded market. Note, no third dividend.

SUGGEST: PARET (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $4.40+, FIRST FOUR (3 / F / 5 / F) (CONFIDENCE 25%)

 

Race 3: Next is the Class 2 TAB Highway over 1400m and they aren’t getting any easier with another very competitive affair at Randwick. Slight lean towards BEL DIABLO at $6+ (NEDS), ahead of EDITORS at $15+ with most operators. Both should settle in prominent positions, hopefully just behind the leader(s) and should hopefully pinch a break from those further back in the field. Both most importantly brining good form to a race like this and can win, despite what market suggests. Main dangers KOPI LUWAK, REMITTANCE, ACQUITTAL and VIVID PINK.  

SUGGEST: BEL DIABLO (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $6+, EDITORS (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $15+, FIRST FOUR (1, 3, 10, 12 / F / 1, 3, 10, 12 / 4, 6) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 4: Next is a benchmark 85 over the mile (1600m) and almost a carbon copy of the race prior, whereby I think Waller has the strong hand with two runners in the form of CELLARMAN and NEW UNIVERSE at $2.70+ (SPORTSBET) and $4.20+ with UNIBET, NEDS and CROWNBET. Just leaning with the shorter odds here with CELLARMAN on a WIN only basis given 58.5kg v 60.5kg with the stablemate. Bowman aboard, can get back into the winner’s stalls here. Main danger NEW UNIVERSE.

SUGGEST: CELLARMAN (WIN) @ $2.70+, FIRST FOUR (F / 2, 4 / 2, 4 / F), (2 / F / 4 / F) (CONFIDENCE 45%)

 

Race 5: Last leg of the early quaddie is the Summer Sprint over 1000m. Another small, yet competitive field with little between them and most with legitimate winning hopes. Slight lean PALAZZO PUBBLICO at $6+ with most operators. Freshened for this and a repeat of last run over 1000m (Oaks Day down the straight when 3rd behind Ball of Muscle and Crystal Dreamer) will get us very close here. Throw a blanket over the rest.

SUGGEST: PALAZZO PUBBLICO (EACH WAY) @ $6+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 6: First leg of the main quaddie is a benchmark 84 over 2000m. Waller dominates the market here again and think his runners will definitely be fighting this out. Slight lean XEBEC who looks ready to fire after the stable have been patient since arriving on our shores. Striving for Australian win #1 from 9 attempts and happy to jump on for the first time today at a respectable $5.50-+ with CENTREBET. Main dangers stablemates CARZOFF, VAUCLUSE BAY and ZOURKHAN.

SUGGEST: XEBEC (EACH WAY) @ $5.50+, FIRST FOUR (1, 6, 7 / F / 1, 6, 7 / 5) (CONFIDENCE 30%) 

 

Race 7: Next is a benchmark 82 over 1400m. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, another tricky, little race. Not overly confident with this Randwick card, now I look to finalise the details. In saying that lean towards LEVEL EIGHT at $3.20+ with most operators whose form looks perfect for a race like this. Then, a secondary play on *QUICK DEFENCE* at a juicy $19+ with CENTREBET. First up here, all reports that is looking as good as ever, normally wants longer but can pull out a run over 1400m here fresh. At the price, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. That’ll do, FLOW might win, but no interest in touching $1.90 with most operators. Note, no third dividend.

SUGGEST: LEVEL EIGHT (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.20+, *QUICK DEFENCE* (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $19+, FIRST FOUR (2, 5, 9, 10 / 4 / 7 / 2, 5, 9, 10) (CONFIDENCE 30%) 

 

Race 8: Penultimate event is a benchmark 85 over 1200m. And this is getting ridiculous as the same applies here. Tough race, many legitimate winning chances as the market suggests (seven 10/1 or less), this is actually a larger field, however like the Waller runner….again! This time **FORTENSKY** at $5.50+ with BET365. Gobbles us in last time unfortunately when VICEROY was a best of the day at a nice price, and no reason the same doesn’t happen here. Happy to play there and make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Ahead of main dangers BURRADOO (Bowman has elected to ride, which is very interesting, given rode FORTENSKY last time) and INSENSATA, but doesn’t end there, runs deep.

SUGGEST: **FORTENSKY** (EACH WAY) @ $5.50+, FIRST FOUR (F / 6, 8 / F / 5) (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

Race 9: We finish with a benchmark 80 for the fillies and mares over the mile (1600m). Safe to say we’re banking on Waller having a big day, as we’re going again here, but not necessarily the one shortest in the betting. Like **JAUNTY** here at a very generous $10+ with SPORTSBET, POINTSBET and CENTREBET. Seems overs for mine given recent form which is great for a race like this. At the price, happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day at the double figure price. Main dangers stablemates in PIONEERING and BAYSA, as well as SIREN’S FURY.

SUGGEST: **JAUNTY** (EACH WAY) @ $10+, FIRST FOUR (1, 5, 8 / F / 1, 5, 8 / 6), (1, 5, 8 / 1, 5, 8 / F / 6) (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

SUMMARY:

Average odds $8.525+ per suggested runner!

** BEST VALUE **: FORTENSKY @ $5.50+, JAUNTY @ $10+

* BEST LONGSHOTS *: DIA D’ORO @ $19+, QUICK DEFENCE @ $19+

#happypunting