27 January 2018 (Racing at Rosehill Gardens)

PUNTING DUNGEON

WWW.PUNTINGDUNGEON.COM.AU

ROSEHILL GARDENS

SATURDAY, JANUARY 27, 2018

 

Racing at ROSEHILL with fine weather in Sydney, penetrometer reading 4.83, meaning we’re looking at a GOOD (4) surface.

RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to ROSEHILL with the rail back in the TRUE position. Hoping for an even track (pace dependant), and no reason to think otherwise given weather and rail position, but as always be sure to keep a close eye on early races for best guide.

 

Race 1: We start with the two year olds over 1100m and happy to take a couple of somewhat speculative stabs at a couple at odds in the form of *BOBBIO* at $35+ with UBET. Won trial, well bred ($200k purchase), big price, looks overs. Happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Then, happy to give one with race day experience a go here in SIZZLING BELLE at $17+ with UBET. Won easily on debut, heads straight to town in what is obviously a much tougher race, but has winning race day experience which cannot be said for any other runner. Happy to leave things there given the guesswork involved, especially with those short in the market. Note, full three place dividends available with a final field of eight.

SUGGEST: *BOBBIO* (EACH WAY) @ $35+, SIZZLING BELLE (EACH WAY) @ $17+, FIRST FOUR (F / 4, 8 / F / 4, 8) (CONFIDENCE 20%)

 

Race 2: Next is an 1100m event for the three year olds and going to give old (well, still young) mate SINGLE BULLET a chance and it might well just be his last one at $5+ with most operators. Always had an opinion of this bloke, but has obviously found a knack of finding one better on multiple occasions, but in many instances in very good races. Small field, should get the right amount of luck and if so be right in the finish. Note, no third dividend.

SUGGEST: SINGLE BULLET (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $5+ (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 3: Next is a benchmark 88 over 1500m and happy to jump aboard NEW UNIVERSE once again here at $5.50+ with most operators. Have a knack of picking the right times to get aboard this galloper and hoping that is the case here. Bit of the pace in the race, should suit and Avdulla riding again is a plus after never riding prior to last start. Backing up for a third straight week, but not going to doubt the Waller stable on this occasion. Main danger SHOW A STAR who looked the pick at first glance after good first up run for new stable, but pace on paper and wide draw will make it tougher, will need some luck. Happy to leave things there.

SUGGEST: NEW UNIVERSE (EACH WAY) @ $5.50+, FIRST FOUR (1 / 3 / F / F), (F / 1 / F / 3) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 4: Next is the Class 2 TAB Highway over on this occasion over 1100m and keen on ANOTHER SIN here at $3.40+ with UNIBET. Was backed off the map on debut at this level and snuck home, has raced in much better races since and now returns to right grade to hopefully prove too strong and return to the winner’s stalls. Main dangers ORI ON FIRE and EL MO.

SUGGEST: ANOTHER SIN (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.40+, FIRST FOUR (F / 2, 12 / F / 6), (F / 6 / F / 2, 12) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 5: Last leg of the early quaddie is a benchmark 80 over 1300m and looking at a two pronged play in the form of two we were on last time in SAMADOUBT ($4.40+ with CROWNBET) and PURE REBEL at $15+ with SPORTSBET. SAMADOUBT is another heading into last chance territory and will need a track this is giving leaders a realistically chance, which we should know by race 5. Get sin well after the claim, jockey has had success in recent times and not a great deal of pace on paper. Then, *PURE REBEL* who was solid on the Gold Coast and can position closer from the good gate (3) with Shinn aboard. Happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day on a day with nothing really long identified. Main danger THAAD and then throw a blanket over the rest.

SUGGEST: SAMADOUBT (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $4.40+, *PURE REBEL* (EACH WAY) @ $15+, FIRST FOUR (roving 3, 8, 9 / F), (F / 9 / F / 3, 8) (CONFIDENCE 30%) 

 

Race 6: First leg of the main quaddie is a benchmark 80 for the fillies and mares over 1350m. Like **GRETNA** here with Blake Shinn aboard at a more than respectable $8.50+ with LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU and BETSTAR. Not an easy ride, so senior hoop importantly, and very good return first up. Normally improves second up so can go very close here given expected improvement. At the price happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main dangers MOSS TRIP and stablemates O’RACHAEL and MISS BALLANTYNE.  

SUGGEST: **GRETNA** (EACH WAY) @ $8.50+, FIRST FOUR (3, 6, 11 / F / 3, 6, 11 / 7) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 7: Next is a Listed event over 1400m and looking to execute the trusty ‘best horse’ rule here with ENDLESS DRAMA at a respectable $6+ with LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU and BETSTAR. First up last prep ran third (beaten 6.8L) to a couple of handy gallopers in Winx and Hartnell. 6.8L from the world’s best is good enough for this Listed event. Will have bigger fish to fry and is obviously better over longer, but can definitely win over this trip on class alone. Main dangers LANCIATO and GEORGE PATTON as the market suggests.

SUGGEST: ENDLESS DRAMA (EACH WAY) @ $6+, FIRST FOUR (F / 7, 8 / F / 3) (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

Race 8: Penultimate event is a benchmark 82 over 1800m. Looks to be another battle between the two that ran the quinella at Randwick two weeks’ ago in EMPORER’S WAY AND ATLANTIC FOX and at the better price, 2kg swing in the weights, Ford riding again and the good gate (1), leaning towards ATLANTIC FOX at $5+ with most operators. Hoping on or near the rail is a good place to be, which we’ll know by then but either way happy to Jay Ford aboard to help try and circumnavigate any concerns should there be any. Main danger most definitely EMPORER’S WAY. If rain happening to come and we ended up on a SOFT (5) or worse (30% chance of thundery showers) then MORTAR PLATOON is a must play at $17+ (with UBET) but only should that occur.     

SUGGEST: ATLANTIC FOX (EACH WAY) @ $5+, MORTAR PLATOON (EACH WAY - IF SOFT (5) OR WORSE) @ $17+, FIRST FOUR (F / 7 / F / 3, 10) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 9: And we finish with the tab.com.au Sprint, a benchmark 80 over 1100m. Looks to be decent pace up front, which I think might set this up for something to come over the top of them late. We’ll have a clear view of how the track is playing prior, but as I said at the beginning, no reason thing it won’t play fair, pace dependant. Slight lean **MY MAHER** here at who gets in nicely at the weights after good first up run and Avdulla jumps aboard. Was actually the first time ever unplaced from six starts, and was only a 1.5L 4th. Ultra consistent, race should be run to suit. At the price, happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Then want a saver on one whio hasn’t won for a while (419 days) in top weight ZIGGY WILLIE at $9.50+ (UBET) who brings good form to a race like this despite the big weight (61kg). We saw Bondeiger win last night, so in comparison 419 days is nothing. Main danger SATIRICAL MAGIC.   

SUGGEST: **MY MAHER** (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $5+, ZIGGY WILLIE (WIN / EACH WAY - SAVER) @ $9.50+, FIRST FOUR (F / 2 / F / 1, 8) (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

SUMMARY:

Average odds $10.48+ per suggested runner!

** BEST VALUE **: GRETNA @ $8.50+, MY MAHER @ $5+

*BEST LONGSHOTS*: BOBBIO @ $35+, PURE REBEL @ $15+

#happypunting