10 February 2018 (Group 1 racing at Caulfield)

PUNTING DUNGEON

WWW.PUNTINGDUNGEON.COM.AU

CAULFIELD

SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 10, 2018

 

Racing at CAULFIELD with warm weather in the lead up but a chance of storms later in the afternoon when a cool change hits. Currently looking at a GOOD (4) surface.

RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to CAULFIELD with the rail back to the TRUE position. Hoping for an even track (pace dependant), but as always be sure to keep a close eye on early races for best guide.

 

Race 1: We start with a handicap over 1800m and going to the one extremely well weighted after the claim in DOWNHEARTED at $3.75+ with BET365. Won’t know itself dropping a massive 8.5kg last start run when beaten a length with 59.5kg. Carries a featherweight of 51kg here. Consistent type who should also appreciate any lack of tempo up front. Then, want a smaller secondary play on *THE MIGHTY JROD* at a very juicy $41+ with BET365. Rises back to a more suitable trip after dropping to 1400m last time. Will also appreciate any lack of pace up front here and looks well over the odds and a fine candidate as a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main danger PLOT THE COURSE.

SUGGEST: DOWNHEARTED (WIN / EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $3.75+, *THE MIGHTY JROD* (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $41+, FIRST FOUR (roving 4, 7 ,8 / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 2: Next is the Blue Diamond Prelude for the fillies and a tough race as you’d expect with many trying to book their place in the Blue Diamond finale. Looks to be decent pace on paper which should give them all a chance. Slight lean DOWNLOADS here at $8+ with most operators. Was very good from the rear on debut, should improve here and should get pace on to suit. Then, want a secondary play on the Mick Price debutante here at very juicy price, in the form of DIAMOND REFLECTION at $31+ (UBET). Somewhat speculative, but well bred ($260k purchase), has won a recent trial and debut well over the odds here.

SUGGEST: DOWNLOADS (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $8+, DIAMOND REFLECTION (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $31+, FIRST FOUR (F / 8, 11 / F / 8, 11) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 3: Next is the other Blue Diamond Prelude, this time for the colts and geldings and don’t see any major reason to stick with Mick Price, this time in the form of HIGH RATIO at $7+ with BET365. Won like a good horse on debut, has spelled since, trialled very well and looks like he’s been saved for this. Drawn awkwardly, but over 1100m here, just the one bend so just needs to find some cover and should get his chance in a wide open affair. Then a smaller, secondary play on another at a huge price, this time in the form of *HINCHRIDER* at $81+ with BET365. Was good on debut, and can improve second up. At the price, more than happy to have a somewhat speculative play and make another BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers NATIVE SOLDIER and OLLIVANDER.

SUGGEST: HIGH RATIO (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $7+, *HINCHRIDER* (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $81+, FIRST FOUR (F / 2, 5 / F / 8, 10) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 4: Next is the Group 3 Carlyon Cup over the mile (1600m) with a small but very competitive field assembled. I’m a huge LORD FANDANGO fan and was spewing when they didn’t head to the Melbourne Cup, is definitely my “very” early Cup prediction for 2018. In saying that, although I give a chance here, can’t get overly excited first up over the shorter trip in this grade and as a result can’t go past GAILO CHOP here at $2.20+ with LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU and BETSTAR. Primary WIN only play given current odds. Main danger LORD FANDANGO out of sheer respect.

SUGGEST: GAILO CHOP (WIN) @ $2.20+, FIRST FOUR (2 / 1 / 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 / 3, 4, 5, 6, 7) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 5: Next is the Group 3 Kevin Hayes Stakes to be run over 1200m and a hot race. The three at the top of the weights are there for a reason and expect them to be fighting this out. In saying that, I have been a huge **SHOALS** fan from the start and the filly has been very good to us on numerous occasions to date, including be our BEST on Derby day and absolutely no reason to be jumping off here. 2/2 first up, 5 wins + 2 x 2nd from 7 starts, drawn very well, gun jockey aboard and well weighted with 58kg. Hard to beat at $3.40+ with SPORTBSET, NEDS and CROWNBET. At the price, happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day despite the hot opposition. Main dangers most definitely BOOKER and TULIPS who has apparently been working the house down. Would surprise if the winner didn’t come from the tree mentioned.

SUGGEST: **SHOALS** (EACH WAY) @ $3.40+, FIRST FOUR (roving 1, 2, 3 / F) (CONFIDENCE 45%) 

 

Race 6: First leg of the main quaddie is the Group 2 Rubiton Stakes over 1100m with another small but hot field assembled. Similar to the above, but on a grander scale, **MERCHANT NAVY** resulted in a huge first four collect in the Coolmore and simply has done very little wrong in short career to date. 5 wind from 6 and unplaced run was a total forgive in Sydney. The run in the Coolmore had to be seen to be believed, literally coming from the clouds! Simply exhilarating. Happy to be in his corner here at a respectable $3.80+ with LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU and BETSTAR. At the price, happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main dangers RICH CHARM, SUPER CASH and ANDROSSAN, but no runner in the race without a legitimate chance.

SUGGEST: **MERCHANT NAVY** (EACH WAY) @ $3.80+, FIRST FOUR (1, 2, 8 / F / 1, 2, 8 / 6) (CONFIDENCE 45%)

 

Race 7: Next is the Group 2 Autumn Stakes for the three year olds over 1400m. Competitive race, many chances. Slight lean LEVENDI at $5.50+ (BET365) who always runs well and is building a solid record with 3 wins from 5 starts to date. Importantly 2/2 first up, weight shouldn’t be an issue, having carried 58kg and more at 2 of 3 wins to date. Main danger VILLERMONT who looks to be on a big upward spiral, ceiling unknown. Doesn’t end there, many more chances but happy to leave it there for mine.

SUGGEST: LEVENDI (EACH WAY) @ $5.50+, FIRST FOUR (2 / F / F / 1) (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

Race 8: Penultimate event is the feature of the day, the Group 1 Orr Stakes over 1400m, and this has changed complexion significantly with the Friday scratching of BLACK HEART BART. Very good race as you’d expect with plenty of chances, however with all weighed up, weight for age, form, fresh form, barriers, distance, etc I have landed on SHILLELAGH at $7.50+ with BET365. Glad to hear Waller state he has been specifically set for this race first up, while others might have other primary targets on their radar. Really made a statement last prep, winning Group 1 on Derby day and impressively was adaptable to sit closer to the speed given how the track was playing. I vividly recall as it was the sole reason I took her on (expecting him to get back), however as soon as she was on the pace, you knew long as she’s adaptable (not many are) then will be hard to beat and that’s what definitely eventuated. Main dangers MR SNEAKY (was so close to tipping here, but barrier the query), HARTNELL (the class galloper), TOSEN STARDOM (has learnt how to win again) and THRONUM (another real up and comer). Doesn’t end there, plenty of chances in a very good race, as you’d expect.

SUGGEST: SHILLELAGH (EACH WAY) @ $7.50+, FIRST FOUR (1, 3, 7, 8 / F / 1, 3, 7, 8 / 11) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 9: We finish with a Group 3 for the mares over 1200m and will keep this short and sweet by running with the ‘best horse’ rule in SILENT SEDITION here at $3.20+ with UNIBET and BET365. Best horse/mare in the race and as long as wound up enough for big first up run, should be very hard to beat here in the lucky last. From barrier 1, will just need a touch of luck as they straighten and as long as Williams can find clear galloping room early enough in the straight should be beating this lot. Happy to keep it narrow in the final leg of your quaddie, as we always have the luxury to back around her should the earlier three legs be secured.

SUGGEST: SILENT SEDITION (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.20+ (CONFIDENCE 45%) 

 

SUMMARY:

Average odds $16.45+ per suggested runner!

** BEST VALUE **: SHOALS @ $3.40+, MERCHANT NAVY @ $3.80+

*BEST LONGSHOTS*: THE MIGHTY JROD @ $41+, HINCHRIDER @ $81+

#happypunting