10 February 2018 (Group racing at Warwick Farm)

PUNTING DUNGEON

WWW.PUNTINGDUNGEON.COM.AU

WARWICK FARM

SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 10, 2018

 

Racing at WARWICK FARM on the back of rain in recent days in Sydney, hence penetrometer 5.11 and a SOFT (5) surface).

RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to WARWICK FARM with the rail back to the TRUE position. Hoping for an even track (pace dependant), but as always be sure to keep a close eye on early races for best guide.

 

Race 1: We start with a Listed event for the two year olds over 1100m. Keen on a couple here at varying odds in the form of SATIN SLIPPER at $3.60+ (BET365) and then at a juicier price PHONEME at a very enticing $18+ with UBET and CENTREBET. SATIN SLIPPER won the Gimcrack on debut and not returns, with no doubt the Golden Slipper the main aim. Hard to beat here first up. Shocked by the price on offer for *PHONEME* here after very good debut run at Moonee Valley behind a handy one, in a race which never looked suited given run on style. Happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. That’ll do us to kick things off.

SUGGEST: SATIN SLIPPER (WIN / EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $3.60+, *PHONEME* (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $18+, FIRST FOUR (F / 1, 6 / F / 1, 6) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 2: Next is a benchmark 84 over 2400m and although XEBEC doesn’t win out of turn (3 wins from 28 starts), think this is the day for the six-year-old gelding. $4+ with most operators, with no third dividend, which I like as the place dividend should allow us to play on an each way basis. Throw a blanket over the rest in a very even and competitive (and tough) race.

SUGGEST: XEBEC (EACH WAY) @ $4+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 3: Next is the Inglis Sprint for the three year olds over 1100m and unfortunately we don’t get to enjoy the mouth-watering clash between NATURE STRIP and SHE WILL REIGN.  SHE WILL REIGN should be smashing these, but given issues out of last run in the Everest when not getting through the run unscathed, I can’t be jumping into $1.30 with enough confidence to play. As a result, as much as I don’t do it often, this is a sit back and watch, top of the beverage of choice and pretty much confirm what level SHE WILL REIGN has returned with an eye on bigger prizes in the Autumn. If anything just stick into a one out early quaddie leg or plonk in as an anchor to some of your daily multies.

SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%)

 

Race 4: Next is the Class 3 TAB Highway over 1200m. Tough race, sticky with the Danny Williams duo here in **VOLPE** at $10+ (CENTREBET) and EL MO at $5.50+ (most operators). Gun hoops for both in Shinn and Avdulla respectively. VOLPE finally draws a decent gate which make a big difference here, having been forced to go back to the rear or lead last time from the bad gates. Draws ideally here and can now camp somewhere in the middle with Shinn aboard. Just want to see some level of monetary support as is back to 1200m, however after a very good freshen up of a month and a half. At the price, happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Hoping for the same as last week in this same event when we went BEST VALUE at $10, ended up $5 and won accordingly! Similar result would be very handy. EL MO hit the line very well last time and as a result the extra 100m should suit perfectly. Happy to play around the two in a wide open affair.

SUGGEST: **VOLPE** (EACH WAY) @ $10+, EL MO (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $5.50+, FIRST FOUR (F / 3, 16 / F / 3, 16) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 5: Next is the Inglis Classic for the two year olds over 1200m. Hard to line them up given the limited race experience of these babies, but expect there to be decent quality throughout. Slight lean to BALLISTICA here at $4.40+ with most operators after a trial that was simple sensational. Trials are trials, hence you can never look too much into them, but couldn’t have looked more impressive. Should get gun run from barrier 3 with Collett aboard and have every chance. Then, want to play a couple at juicy prices in the form of stablemate *TA CHANSON* at $61+ (CENTREBET) and I STOLE YOUR LOVE at $34+ (UBET). Triple Crown are chasing a record fourth Inglis Classic hence have both BALLISTICA and *TA CHANSON* and expect improvement from the latter after ‘even’ debut when not everything went to plan. Happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day at the huge price. I STOLE YOUR WORK was a total forgive in the Gimcrack, has had a break since and trials say she can run a very cheeky race. Love the stable, especially with these two year olds who always seem to pop up over the odds. Main danger SANCTIMONIOUS up from Melbourne after smashing them at the Valley last week.

SUGGEST: BALLISTICA (EACH WAY) @ $4.40+, *TA CHANSON* (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $61+, I STOLE YOUR LOVE (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $34+, FIRST FOUR (roving 1, 8, 14 / F), (roving 1, 14, 16 / F), (F / 1, 14 / F / 8, 16) (CONFIDENCE 30%) 

 

Race 6: First leg of the main quaddie is the Group 3 Eskimo Prince over 1200m. Looking to play around two here, first SIEGE OF QUEBEC at $3.70+ (most operators) who looked a real class act last time when looking under real pressure early, then finding feet, hitting the line and then winning somewhat comfortably which is always a great sign. Happy with a WIN only play there, ahead of **GOODFELLA** who looks nicely suited here at a tidy each way price of $9.50+ also with most operators. Didn’t disappoint in Queensland despite not saluting and they look like they want to replicate win 5 starts ago in Listed event when dropping back to 1200m.  At the price happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day.

SUGGEST: SIEGE OF QUEBEC (WIN) @ $3.70+, **GOODFELLA** (EACH WAY) @ $9.50+, FIRST FOUR (F / 2, 3 / F / 2, 3) (CONFIDENCE 40%)

 

Race 7: Next is the Group 2 Breeders Classic for the mares over 1200m. Not a great deal of pace on paper and as a result expecting BONNY O’REILLY to push forward from the sticky gate. Think this could prove a race winning tactic, as should be able to find a spot and simply stalk expected leader MEMES and hopefully pinch a break on the turn with several expected to come hard late. $3.20+ (NEDS) good enough for mine, with stablemate EGYPTIAN SYMBOL the main danger.

SUGGEST: BONNY O’REILLY (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.20+, FIRST FOUR (2 / 4 / F / F), (F / 2, 4 / 2, 4 / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

Race 8: Penultimate event is over the mile (1600m) with a small field following a host of scratchings. This could prove a tactical encounter, but simply can’t go past SHOW A STAR at $1.95+ with SPORTSBET. Would prefer not to be leading but just behind and class should hopefully prevail here. Happy to play on a WIN only basis given the short price, and obviously no third dividend.

SUGGEST: SHOW A STAR (WIN) @ $1.95+ (CONFIDENCE 50%)

 

Race 9: We finish with a very good benchmark 95 over 1000m and this is ultra-tough with most of the field resuming from breaks. Going with the class here in ARTLEE at $6.50+ (CENTREBET) who has changed stables interestingly after not winning for a while, but always in good black type races without necessarily disgracing. Lees will be keen to look good given first start for stable so hopefully has pinpointed the right race. Always shown a tonne of ability but is first up since June, so a long break. Then, want something on longshot GRAND CONDOR at $41+ with CENTREBET. Upset them last start at 100/1, has had a break since and it just looks one of those races that absolutely anything could happen. Main danger FICKLE FOLLY and ECHO EFFECT but doesn’t end there and respect money for anything else, especially those first up from long breaks. (www.plungeapp.com.au/download)

SUGGEST: ARTLEE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $6.50+, GRAND CONDOR (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $41+, FIRST FOUR (6, 9 / 1 / F / 6, 9, 11), (F / 6, 9 / 1 / 6, 9, 11) (CONFIDENCE 30%) 

 

SUMMARY:

Average odds $14.74+ per suggested runner!

** BEST VALUE **: VOLPE @ $10+, GOODFELLA @ $9.50+

*BEST LONGSHOTS*: PHONEME @ $18+, TA CHANSON @ $61+

#happypunting