17 February 2018 (Group racing at Royal Randwick)

PUNTING DUNGEON

WWW.PUNTINGDUNGEON.COM.AU

ROYAL RANDWICK

SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 17, 2018

 

Racing at RANDWICK with weather forecast looking clear in Sydney, penetrometer 5.17, so currently looking at a GOOD (4) surface.

RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to RANDWICK with the rail back to the TRUE position. Hoping for an even track (pace dependant), but as always be sure to keep a close eye on early races for best guide.

 

Race 1: We start with the TAB Highway over 1800m. Not overly enthused about the price, however MATE STORY who was our best of the day last time at $9 (backed into nearly half that price) and won accordingly and think he can simply win again. Back up in trip should only suit and happy enough now with the $2.75+ price tag (UNIBET, CENTREBET) after being almost red figures earlier. Hard to beat for mine.  

SUGGEST: MATE STORY (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $2.75+ (CONFIDENCE 50%)

 

Race 2: Next are the two year olds over 1100m and think LEGEND OF CONDOR is the one to beat here at $3+ with BET365 and UBET. Well bred, trialled well before debut, won well on debut, has trialled well for this and stable have bigger fish to fry, hence would need to be running very well here. Then, think best value lies with PERFECT PITCH at a juicy $26+ with most operators. Has done very little wrong to date, and we get a price after a soft trial. Main danger the Portelli stablemate in EXCELTIC but doesn’t end there. Be sure to respect any market movers (download free app at www.plungeapp.com.au/download)

SUGGEST: LEGEND OF CONDOR (WIN / EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $3+, PERFECT PITCH (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $26+, FIRST FOUR (roving 2, 5, 10 / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 3: Next is another benchmark 86 over 2000m. Even and tricky affair with many legitimate winning hopes. Best value most definitely lies with SIZZLING BULLET for mine at a very respectable $10+ with CENTREBET. Gets up to right trip, will have the right fitness levels in place to step up here. Main danger EMPORER’S WAY and ZOURKHAN.

SUGGEST: SIZZLING BULLET (EACH WAY) @ $10+, FIRST FOUR (roving 1, 2, 4 / F), (F / 1, 4 / F / 2) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 4: The first of the features, is the Group 3 Southern Cross Stakes over 1200m, made quite difficult by the fact almost every run is either first up here or returns from a freshen up, hence key to this puzzle may lay with who is being set for their grand final today v those with grand finals to come. Given the prices on offer, best value for mine is with **CLEARLY INNOCENT** at a nice $6.50+ each way price. Knows how to win (9 wins from 19 is a sensational record in anyone’s language) and has won first up, although arguable better later, however hoping class and proven winning background can be enough here. At the price, given the talent, happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Throw a blanket over the rest, most with legitimate claims here.  

SUGGEST: **CLEARLY INNOCENT** (EACH WAY) @ $6.50+ (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 5: Next is a benchmark 86 over the mile (1600m) and there doesn’t look to be a great deal of pace on paper here, although the two natural on pacers are drawn wide, so pace/tactics will be critical here. Like **MALAISE** here at $5.50+ with LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU, BETSTAR and CENTREBET. Was ultra-impressive winning two starts back when heavily backed, wide but still far too good for them. Didn’t seem to handle Caulfield, draws well here and from the gate hoping they settle just behind the leaders. If so, should be right in the thick of things late and happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main danger KING DARCI who should be able to cross easily from the wide gate to settle in the first two.

SUGGEST: **MALAISE** (EACH WAY) @ $5.50+, FIRST FOUR (1 / F / F / 4) (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

Race 6: First leg of the main quaddie is the next of the features, in the form of the Group 2 Apollo Stakes over 1400m and safe to say this is a very different race than it would have been had Hugh Bowman not been suspended, hence meaning the champion Winx would’ve been here. In saying that, think this allows Chris Waller to get a Group 2 win under the belt of her promising ENDLESS DRAMA who although hasn’t done a great deal wrong in Australia, it is time to get into the winner’s stalls. Will appreciate stablemate not here and think today will be the day from a good draw at a tidy enough $5+ with CENTREBET. Full three place dividends with the eight acceptors. Main danger PRIZED ICON but doesn’t end there.

SUGGEST: ENDLESS DRAMA (EACH WAY) @ $5+, FIRST FOUR (F / 2, 3 / 2, 3 / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 7: Next feature is the Group 3 Triscay Stakes over 1200m for the mares. As always with Group mares’ races very competitive. Many will know I have been off Godolphin for a while as I didn’t have faith in where they were at through the transition, etc, however I’m about to tip the second in three races with RAIMENT here at $4.60+ with most operators. First up I reckon she will either be on or off and money should be a decent enough guide as to how wound up she is. Historically goes very well fresh so I’m expecting a big run and can be terribly dominant on her day. Some will consider her a wet tracker, but she is 1 win and 1 x 2nd from 2 starts on a good track, hence simply seems to handle all conditions. Happy with a primary play there, ahead of *ZUMBELINA* who looks over the odds here at $17+ with UBET. Goes well fresh as is the case here, after not being far behind Mighty Like on the Gold Coast in good race. 6 wins from 15 starts so knows how to win. At the price, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Throw a blanket over the rest is a typically deep Group mares’ event.

SUGGEST: RAIMENT (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $4.60+, *ZUMBELINA* (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $17+, FIRST FOUR (F / 5, 7 / F / 5, 7) (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

Race 8: Penultimate event is the last of the features, this time with the running of the Group 2 Light Fingers over 1200m. Call me crazy as I have potted them for a while, but today just might be the day Godolphin make a “much needed” statement heading into the Autumn. ALIZEE looks well placed here first up over 1200m and despite I’m not overly excited by the price ($2.10+ with CENTREBET), it’s good enough and I’m hoping we can secure better later as they will surely come for at least 1-2 others in a race like this. Some might think a touch short, but although she hasn’t won over 1200m, is 2 x 2nds from 3 starts and the only miss was a 0.5L 4th to the very talented Formality who goes around as a legitimate chance in the Group 1 Lightning today. Keen, ahead of DEBONAIRLY who looks big overs here at a juicy $21+ with most operators. Always very capable on her day and in an even bunch outside the top pick simply represents the best value. Can see some odds in the multiples so recommend playing the multiples.

SUGGEST: ALIZEE (WIN - PRIMARY) @ $2.10+, DEBONAIRLY (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $21+, FIRST FOUR (F / 3 / F / 4), (F / F / 3 / 4) (CONFIDENCE 45%)

 

Race 9: We finish with a benchmark 85 over 1200m and a very depleted line-up with eight of the original 18 now missing, leaving us with a final field of 10. Tricky finish, with very little between several here on paper. Lucky in running and simply the “better” run could be the difference between 1st and 4th. Slight lean towards SUNCRAZE at $5.50+ (CENTREBET) who now has that dreaded monkey off the back. Not many gallopers can boast a 10/10 top two finish record and although this is a step up in grade, it doesn’t look anything too scary for one hopefully still on an upward spiral. Also want a play on *GENERALISSIMO* at a juicy enough $16+ with BET365. Is one who drops from better grade racing with the query how wound up we’ll be first up. Capable at this shorter trip and as long as there is steady support a definite winning chance. At the price, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day to finish things off. Main danger OSBORNE BULLS (another Godolphin) and MISSILE CODA but both rock bottom odds.   

SUGGEST: SUNCRAZE (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $5.50+, *GENERALISSIMO* (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $16+, FIRST FOUR (F / 2, 17 / F / 6, 8) (CONFIDENCE 30%) 

 

SUMMARY:

Average odds $9.61+ per suggested runner!

** BEST VALUE **: CLEARLY INNOCENT @ $6.50+, MALAISE @ $5.50+

*BEST LONGSHOTS*: ZUMBELINA @ $17+, GENERALISSIMO @ $16+

#happypunting